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This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on a structural approach that highlights the roles of the fundamental macroeconomic determinants of saving and investment. Cross-section and panel regression techniques are used to characterize the properties of current account variation across countries and over time. Current account balances are positively correlated with government budget balances and initial stocks of net foreign assets. Among developing countries, measures of financial deepening are positively correlated while indicators of openness to international trade are negatively correlated with current account balances.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Current account --- Current account balance --- Current account deficits --- Personal income --- Terms of trade --- Balance of payments --- National accounts --- International trade --- Income --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- United States --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper explores the global impact of population aging, using a calibrated overlapping generations model of eight world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The simulations show that there will be a turning point in regional savings – investment balances between 2010 and 2030 when the European Union and North America will experience a substantial decline in savings relative to investment as their populations age rapidly. This shift will be financed by capital flows from less developed regions which are projected to become capital exporters.
Exports and Imports --- Demography --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- International economics --- Population & demography --- Current account --- Aging --- Current account balance --- Current account deficits --- Demographic change --- Balance of payments --- Population and demographics --- Population aging --- Demographic transition --- Japan
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The 1994 crisis in Mexico, developments in East Asia, and persistent turmoil in world financial markets have dramatized the role of external imbalances in macroeconomic crises. Some believe that the current account should be kept from rising beyond a sustainable level, some that a current account surplus is the only solid external position. Can those rules of thumb be justified analytically? Calderon, Loayza, and Serven consider external sustainability from the perspective of equilibrium in net foreign asset positions. Under their approach, an external situation is sustainable if it is consistent with international and domestic investors' achieving their desired portfolio allocation across countries. They develop a reduced-form model of net foreign asset positions whose long-run equilibrium condition expresses the ratio of net foreign assets to the total wealth of domestic residents as a negative function of investment returns in the country relative to the rest of the world, a positive function of investment risk, and an inverse function of the ratio of foreign-owned to domestically owned wealth. To estimate this equilibrium condition, the authors use a newly constructed data set of foreign asset and liability stocks for a large group of industrial and developing countries, from the 1960s to the present. They also develop summary measures of country returns and risks. Their econometric methodology is an application of the Pooled Mean Group estimator recently developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999), which allows for unrestricted cross-country heterogeneity in short-term dynamics while imposing a common long-run specification. The estimation results lend considerable support to the model, especially when applied to countries with low capital controls or high or upper-middle income. The results for countries with high capital controls and, especially, lower-income countries are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model. As a byproduct of the model's estimation, the authors obtain estimates of the long-run equilibrium ratios of net foreign assets to wealth, conditional on the observed values of the country's relative returns, risks, and wealth. Then, for a selected group of industrial and developing countries, they evaluate the extent to which actual ratios diverge from their long-run counterparts - and hence the sustainability of current net foreign asset positions. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort to assess the sustainability of the external accounts of the major countries in the region. The authors may be contacted at nloayza@condor.bcentral.cl or lserven@worldbank.org.
Assets --- Capital Controls --- Central Bank --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Current Account --- Current Account Deficits --- Current Account Imbalances --- Current Account Surplus --- Debt Markets --- Domestic Investors --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Equilibrium Condition --- External Deficits --- External Position --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Financial Markets --- Foreign Asset --- Foreign Asset Positions --- Imbalances --- Investment and Investment Climate --- Investment Opportunities --- Long-Run Equilibrium --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Risk --- Risks
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Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India? This paper seeks an answer by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate, using an error correction model and a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The results are affirmative and the evidence indicates that current account deficits and investor confidence also played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. The ECM model is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Current account deficits --- Current account --- Real effective exchange rates --- Balance of payments --- India
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Portugal showed impressive economic performance owing to its macroeconomic policies and structural reforms. Executive Directors commended the authorities for their stability-oriented policies, low inflation, and declining fiscal deficits. Nonetheless, economic policies needed to address signs of emerging macroeconomic imbalances, including the brisk growth of private sector credit, tight labor markets, and a persistent inflation differential in relation to other euro area countries. Moreover, an acceleration of structural reforms and further fiscal consolidation would be essential for a rapid and sustained convergence to European Union income levels.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Budgeting & financial management --- Expenditure --- Current account --- Current account deficits --- Credit --- Public debt --- Balance of payments --- Money --- Expenditures, Public --- Debts, Public --- Monetary policy --- Portugal
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Poland is placed high among the most successful transition economies owing to its strong macroeconomic and structural policies. Executive Directors commended this development, and stressed the need to maintain monetary and fiscal policies. They appreciated the tax and pension systems, banking supervision and regulatory framework, and industrial restructuring and privatization. They welcomed the policymakers' focus on ensuring progress toward membership in the European Union accession. They agreed that the country's statistical base is adequate for surveillance, and encouraged the authorities to improve the quality of macroeconomic data.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Current account deficits --- Inflation targeting --- Expenditure --- External debt --- Balance of payments --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Expenditures, Public --- Debts, External --- Poland, Republic of
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The Balance of Payments Textbook, like the Balance of Payments Compilation Guide, is a companion document to the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The Textbook provides illustrative examples and applications of concepts, definitions, classifications, and conventions contained in the Manual and affords compilers with opportunities for enhancing their understanding of the relevant parts of the Manual. The Textbook is one of the main reference materials for training courses in balance of payments methodology.
Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Credit --- Current Account Adjustment --- Exports and Imports --- Finance --- Financial account --- Financial Instruments --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Income --- Institutional Investors --- Insurance --- International economics --- International finance --- International Investment --- Investments, Foreign --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Policy --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Pension Funds --- Reserve assets --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Trade: General --- United States
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The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Current account deficits --- Expenditure --- Public debt --- Inflation targeting --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- Monetary policy --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- United States
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The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.
Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Energy: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Fiscal Policy --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Oil --- Oil prices --- Current account --- Current account balance --- Fiscal stance --- Commodities --- Balance of payments --- Fiscal policy --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Saudi Arabia
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The Swiss banking system is characterized by a two-tier structure. The first tier is composed of the two large banks and some smaller banks focused on private banking, all of which have a significant international presence. These banks represent, so to speak, the “international face” of the Swiss banks. They are mostly joint-stock companies or privately owned (unlimited personal liability). The second tier is composed of a varied group of banks, mostly focused on domestic, or even regional, business.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Investment Banking --- Venture Capital --- Brokerage --- Ratings and Ratings Agencies --- International economics --- Banking --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Foreign assets --- Current account --- Current account surpluses --- Personal income --- External position --- Balance of payments --- Foreign banks --- Financial institutions --- Investment banking --- Financial services --- Banks and banking --- Investments, Foreign --- Income --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- Switzerland
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