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This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information to forecast output also in emerging market economies. Moreover, the paper finds that the strength of the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns is significantly related to a number of stock market characteristics, such as the number of listed domestic companies and initial public offerings and, especially, a high market capitalization to GDP ratio and English legal origin.

Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International Financial Markets --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Stocks --- Stock markets --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Production growth --- Market capitalization --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Production --- Financial services industry --- Stock exchanges --- Economic theory --- United States

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Job Creation.

Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Economic theory --- Employment protection --- Employment --- Income economics --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Job creation --- Labor Contracts --- Labor Demand --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Manpower policy --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages --- United States

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¿Por qué algunos países logran crear más empleo que otros?.

Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Economic theory --- Employment protection --- Employment --- Income economics --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Job creation --- Labor Contracts --- Labor Demand --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Manpower policy --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages --- United States

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This paper documents the scale of capital flight from Russia, compares it with that observed in other countries, and reviews policy options. The evidence from other countries suggests that capital flight can be reversed once reforms take hold. The paper argues that capital flight from Russia can only be curbed through a medium-term reform strategy aimed at improving governance and macroeconomic performance, and strengthening the banking system. Capital controls result in costly distortions and should gradually be phased out as part of that medium-term strategy.

Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Criminology --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Formal and Informal Sectors --- Shadow Economy --- Institutional Arrangements --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Bureaucracy --- Administrative Processes in Public Organizations --- Corruption --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Corporate crime --- white-collar crime --- Banking --- Capital outflows --- Capital controls --- Commercial banks --- Exports --- Balance of payments --- Crime --- Financial institutions --- International trade --- Capital movements --- Banks and banking --- Russian Federation --- White-collar crime

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This paper analyzes yield spreads on sovereign debt issued by emerging markets using modern data from the 1990s and newly-collected historical data on debt traded in London during 1870–1913, a previous “golden era” for international capital market integration. Applying several empirical approaches, we show that the co-movement of spreads across emerging markets is higher today than it was in the historical sample. We also show that sharp changes in spreads today tend to be mostly related to global events, whereas country-specific events played a bigger role in 1870–1913. Although we find some evidence that economic fundamentals, too, co-move more strongly today than at that earlier time, our interpretation of the results is that today’s investors pay less attention to country-specific events than their predecessors did in 1870–1913.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- International Financial Markets --- Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Sovereign bonds --- Bonds --- Bond yields --- Yield curve --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Financial services --- Financial services industry --- Interest rates --- Argentina