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Political violence and stability in the states of the Northern Persian Gulf
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ISBN: 0833043390 0585245150 9780585245157 9780833043399 9780833027269 0833027263 0833027263 Year: 1999 Publisher: Santa Monica, CA Rand

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Political violence threatens the lives of U.S. soldiers and the stability of U.S. allies throughout the world. This report examines the threat of political violence in the Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates and the best means of reducing that threat. It assesses sources of discontent, common reasons for anti-regime politicization, potential triggers of violence, and the influence of foreign powers. The report then describes the strategies that regimes in the area have used to interfere with political organization and to counter violence in general. The report concludes by noting implications of political violence for both the United States and its allies in the Gulf, and by assessing the impact of various measures that could reduce violence: enacting political and economic reforms in the Gulf; changing the U.S. presence in the region through new basing and operational approaches; increasing a European role in Gulf security; coercing foreign powers that contribute to violence; strengthening the U.S.-Gulf partnership; and improving military-to-military ties.

All in the family : absolutism, revolution, and democracy in the Middle Eastern monarchies
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ISBN: 0585086788 9780585086781 0791441679 0791441687 9780791441671 9780791441688 Year: 1999 Publisher: Albany : State University of New York Press,


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The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development
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Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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May 2000 - A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic polarization are empirically associated with higher income, higher growth, more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war (putting ethnic minorities at risk), more social modernization, and more democracy. Modern political economy stresses society's polarization as a determinant of development outcomes. Among the most common forms of social conflict are class polarization and ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus is defined as a high share of income for the middle class and a low degree of ethnic polarization. A middle class consensus distinguishes development successes from failures. A theoretical model shows how groups- distinguished by class or ethnicity - will under-invest in human capital and infrastructure when there is leakage to another group. Easterly links the existence of a middle class consensus to exogenous country characteristics such as resource endowments, along the lines of the provocative thesis of Engerman and Sokoloff 1997 that tropical commodity exporters are more unequal than other societies. Easterly confirms this hypothesis with cross-country data. This makes it possible to use resource endowments as instruments for inequality. A higher share of income for the middle class and lower ethnic polarization are empirically associated with higher income, higher growth, more education, better health, better infrastructure, better economic policies, less political instability, less civil war (putting ethnic minorities at risk), more social modernization, and more democracy. This paper - a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to study the determinants of growth. The author may be contacted at weasterly@worldbank.org.


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Africa's Growth Tragedy : A Retrospective, 1960 - 89
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Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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August 1995 - Problems associated with Sub-Saharan Africa's slow growth are low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially. But if neighboring countries adopt a policy change together, the effects on growth are more than double what they would have been if one country had acted alone. Africa's economic history since 1960 fits the classical definition of tragedy: potential unfulfilled, with disastrous consequences. Easterly and Levine use one methodology - cross-country regressions - to account for Sub-Saharan Africa's growth performance over the past 30 years and to suggest policies to promote growth over the next 30 years. They statistically quantify the relationship between long-run growth and a wider array of factors than any previous study. They consider such standard variables as initial income to capture convergence effects, schooling, political stability, and indicators of monetary, fiscal, trade, exchange rate, and financial sector policies. They also consider such new measures as infrastructure development, cultural diversity, and economic spillovers from neighbors' growth. Their analysis: Improves substantially on past attempts to account for the growth experience of Sub-Saharan African countries; Shows that low school attainment, political instability, poorly developed financial systems, large black-market exchange-rate premia, large government deficits, and inadequate infrastructure are associated with slow growth; Finds that Africa's ethnic diversity tends to slow growth and reduce the likelihood of adopting good policies; Identifies spillovers of growth performance between neighboring countries. The spillover effects of growth have implications for policy strategy. Improving policies alone boosts growth substantially, but if neighboring countries act together, the effects on growth are much greater. Specifically, the results suggest that the effect of neighbors' adopting a policy change is 2.2 times greater than if a single country acted alone. This paper - a joint product of the Macroeconomics and Growth Division and the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to understand the link between policies and growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Patterns of Growth (RPO 678-26).

Democratic peace-building and conflict prevention : the devil is in the transition.
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ISBN: 9061869854 Year: 1999 Publisher: Leuven Leuven university press

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