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This paper analyzes and tests the influence of political instability on economic vulnerability in the context of the 1994 and 1997 crises episodes. It constructs four political variables that aim at quantifying political instability. The paper finds that for countries with weak economic fundamentals and low reserves, political instability has a strong impact on economic vulnerability. The estimation results suggest that including political variables in economic models does improve their power to explain and predict economic crises. The paper concludes that countries are more economically vulnerable during and especially following election periods, and when election results are less stable than at other times.

Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Natural Resources --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financial Crises --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Environmental management --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Financial crises --- Exchange rates --- Non-renewable resources --- Environment --- Natural resources --- Mexico

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In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

Banks and Banking --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Natural Resources --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Policy --- Banking --- Environmental management --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Non-renewable resources --- Public expenditure review --- Commercial banks --- Credit --- Environment --- Expenditure --- Financial institutions --- Money --- International reserves --- Central banks --- Banks and banking --- Natural resources --- Expenditures, Public --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Guinea