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This paper identifies turning points for the U.S. business cycle using different time series. The model, a multivariate Markov-Swiching model, assumes that each series is characterized by a mixture of two normal distributions (a high and low mean) with switching determined by a common Markov process. The procedure is applied to the series that make up the composite U.S. coincident indicator to obtain business cycle turning points. The business cycle chronology is closer to the NBER reference cycle than the turning points obtained from the individual series using a univariate model. The model is also used to forecast the series, with encouraging results.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Economic Methodology --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Economic growth --- International economics --- Business cycles --- Industrial production --- Cyclical indicators --- International investment position --- Personal income --- Production --- External position --- National accounts --- Industries --- Investments, Foreign --- Income --- United States