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1999 (4)

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Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis
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Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C.

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Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes.
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Year: 1999 Publisher: London Centre For Economic Policy Research. Discussion Paper Nr. 2171. International Macroeconomics

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Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis
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Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, DC : World Bank, Development Research Group, Macroeconomics and Growth,

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The recent Asian currency crisis was caused by large prospective fiscal deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. Absent the political will to raise taxes or cut spending, governments must resort to seignorage revenues to pay for the bailout of the banking system. In a world of forward-looking agents, this makes a currency crisis inevitable.


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Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes
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Year: 1999 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share four elements. First, governments provide guarantees to domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before the crises. Finally, when the currency/banking collapse occurs, interest rates rise and there is a persistent decline in output. This paper proposes an explanation for these regularities. We show that government guarantees lower interest rates and generate an economic boom. They also lead to a more fragile banking system; banks choose not to hedge exchange rate risk. When the fixed exchange rate is abandoned in favor of a crawling peg, banks go bankrupt, the domestic interest rate rises, real wages fall, and output declines.

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