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Integrating the health services and insurance industries (HMOs) could lower expenditure by reducing either the quantity of services or unit price. We compare the treatment of heart attacks and newly diagnosed chest pain in HMOs and traditional plans in two data sets. The nature of these health problems should minimize selection, and OLS and instrumental-variable estimates yield consistent results. HMOs have 30 to 40 percent lower expenditures than traditional indemnity plans. Actual treatments and health outcomes differ little; virtually all the difference in spending comes from lower unit prices. Managed care may yield substantial productivity improvements relative to traditional insurance.

Interest rates --- Econometric models

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Interest rates --- Finance --- Flow of funds --- Capital market

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This paper reviews the first five years’ experience with inflation targeting in the United Kingdom. It concludes that inflation performance was not significantly different under inflation targeting than predicted by a VAR model estimated in the period prior to participation in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM). Both short- and long-term interest rates were lower than predicted, however, which is consistent with the interpretation that some gains in credibility were achieved under the inflation targeting regime.

Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Finance --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Inflation targeting --- Long term interest rates --- Short term interest rates --- Vector autoregression --- Monetary policy --- Prices --- Financial services --- Econometric analysis --- Interest rates --- United Kingdom

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This paper examines episodes of the banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries. The empirical results identify several macroeconomic and financial variables as useful leading indicators. The main macroeconomic indicators were of limited value in predicting the Asian crises; the best warning signs were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be more associated with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress.

Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Commercial banks --- Financial crises --- Banking crises --- Real interest rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Financial institutions --- Financial services --- Banks and banking --- Interest rates --- Indonesia

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In recent years, many countries have successfully reduced their inflation rates to relatively low levels of 2 to 3 percent. The question then arises as to whether it would be desirable to move to even lower rates of inflation. The paper examines the benefits and costs of moving from low inflation to even lower inflation by drawing together recent work on this issue. Once a country has decided to move to an even lower rate of inflation, the question then becomes whether it would be better to achieve this objective through inflation targeting or price-level targeting. The paper critically reviews the arguments for both approaches.

Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Inflation targeting --- Wage adjustments --- Sticky prices --- Real interest rates --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Price stabilization --- Wages --- Interest rates --- United States