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This paper uses propensity score methods to address the question: how well can an observational study estimate the treatment impact of a program? Using data from Lalonde's (1986) influential evaluation of non-experimental methods, we demonstrate that propensity score methods succeed in estimating the treatment impact of the National Supported Work Demonstration. Propensity score methods reduce the task of controlling for differences in pre-intervention variables between the treatment and the non-experimental comparison groups to controlling for differences in the estimated propensity score (the probability of assignment to treatment, conditional on covariates). It is difficult to control for differences in pre-intervention variables when they are numerous and when the treatment and comparison groups are dissimilar, whereas controlling for the estimated propensity score, a single variable on the unit interval, is a straightforward task. We apply several methods, such as stratification on the propensity score and matching on the propensity score, and show that they result in accurate estimates of the treatment impact.
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This paper considers causal inference and sample selection bias in non-experimental settings in which: (i) few units in the non-experimental comparison group are comparable to the treatment units, and (ii) selecting a subset of comparison units similar to the treatment units is difficult because units must be compared across a high-dimensional set of pre-treatment characteristics. We propose the use of propensity score matching methods and implement them using data from the NSW experiment. Following Lalonde (1986), we pair the experimental treated units with non-experimental comparison units from the CPS and PSID and compare the estimates of the treatment effect obtained using our methods to the benchmark results from the experiment. We show that the methods succeed in focusing attention on the small subset of the comparison units comparable to the treated units and, hence, in alleviating the bias due to systematic differences between the treated and comparison units.
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