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1997 (7)

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Book
Phillips Curves, Phillips Lines and the Unemplyment Costs of Overheating
Authors: ---
ISBN: 146232990X 1452792682 1281604402 9786613785091 1451891377 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.


Book
Labor Market Adjustment in Canada and the United States
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462326900 1452793700 128115539X 9786613776754 1451890168 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of different labor market adjustment mechanisms in Canada and the United States and also examines the effects of the unemployment insurance (UI) system on labor market adjustment. At the aggregate level, employment growth shocks result in similar unemployment rate responses but smaller wage responses in Canada relative to the United States. Although overall UI generosity has increased aggregate unemployment persistence in Canada, the endogenous component of UI has affected unemployment persistence only marginally. The lower degree of aggregate real wage flexibility in Canada has not been an important determinant of unemployment persistence.


Book
On the Speed of Transition in Central and Eastern Europe : Does On-the-Job Search Matter?
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ISBN: 1462387276 1452729050 1283567326 1451898185 9786613879776 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines how the on-the-job search of workers in the state sector who are seeking jobs in the private sector affects private sector employment, the unemployment level, and the unemployment duration in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The main finding is that on-the-job searching can account for the coexistence of a quickly growing private sector and a high unemployment level of long duration. The paper also addresses the issue of the optimal (output maximizing) rate of state sector closure and finds that the rate is slower when workers are simultaneously job hunting than when they are not.


Book
IMF Staff papers : Volume 44 No. 2.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 145529764X 1455264334 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The Chilean pension reform of 1981, a shift from cm unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance. Positive growth effects allow, in principle, a Pareto-improving shift in pension financing. This paper highlights the theoretical underpinnings of the reform and presents empirical data and preliminary econometric testing of the conjectured reform effects on financial market developments, as well as the impact on total factor productivity. capital formation, and private saving. The empirical evidence is consistent with most but not all claims. In particular, the direct impact of the reform on saving was low, and initially even negative.


Book
Germany : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 146230303X 1452758573 1280896736 9786613738042 1451997078 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This Selected Issues paper analyzes labor market asymmetries and macroeconomic adjustment in Germany. Empirical work reported shows that in Germany, negative demand shocks increase the unemployment rate by more than the decrease in the unemployment rate caused by a comparable-sized positive demand shock. The contribution of labor costs to explaining the high level of unemployment, particularly since unification, is studied. Empirical estimates are obtained for the wage gap—the deviation of actual labor costs from warranted labor costs based on estimated production functions assuming competitive factor markets and full employment.


Book
Denmark : Recent Economic Developments.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455271314 1452708223 1280982683 1463997973 9786613754295 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper describes economic developments in Denmark during 1990–96. After a prolonged period of stagnation in the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s, GDP rose by 4¼ percent in 1994, reflecting a surge in domestic demand and recovery in export markets. The expansion of GDP slowed to a 2¾ percent pace in 1995 as domestic demand moderated and as exports decelerated sharply. The slowing of external markets intensified in the course of 1995 with the result that GDP in the fourth quarter was barely above its first quarter level.


Book
IMF Staff papers : Volume 44 No. 1.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462311202 1462335411 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper argues that an important group of labor market policies are complementary in the sense that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation. This may explain why the diverse, piecemeal labor market reforms in many European countries in recent years have had so little success in reducing unemployment. What is required instead is deeper labor market reforms across a broader range of complementary policies and institutions. To be politically feasible, these reforms must be combined with measures to address distributional issues.

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