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Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.
Inflation --- Labor --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Disinflation --- Wages --- Prices --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of different labor market adjustment mechanisms in Canada and the United States and also examines the effects of the unemployment insurance (UI) system on labor market adjustment. At the aggregate level, employment growth shocks result in similar unemployment rate responses but smaller wage responses in Canada relative to the United States. Although overall UI generosity has increased aggregate unemployment persistence in Canada, the endogenous component of UI has affected unemployment persistence only marginally. The lower degree of aggregate real wage flexibility in Canada has not been an important determinant of unemployment persistence.
Labor --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Unemployment rate --- Labor markets --- Real wages --- Economic theory --- Labor market --- United States --- Income economics
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This paper examines how the on-the-job search of workers in the state sector who are seeking jobs in the private sector affects private sector employment, the unemployment level, and the unemployment duration in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The main finding is that on-the-job searching can account for the coexistence of a quickly growing private sector and a high unemployment level of long duration. The paper also addresses the issue of the optimal (output maximizing) rate of state sector closure and finds that the rate is slower when workers are simultaneously job hunting than when they are not.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Comparative Economic Systems: General --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Civil service & public sector --- Labour --- income economics --- Public sector --- Unemployment rate --- Economic sectors --- Finance, Public --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Czech Republic --- Income economics
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The Chilean pension reform of 1981, a shift from cm unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance. Positive growth effects allow, in principle, a Pareto-improving shift in pension financing. This paper highlights the theoretical underpinnings of the reform and presents empirical data and preliminary econometric testing of the conjectured reform effects on financial market developments, as well as the impact on total factor productivity. capital formation, and private saving. The empirical evidence is consistent with most but not all claims. In particular, the direct impact of the reform on saving was low, and initially even negative.
Deflation --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Finance --- Finance: General --- Fiscal consolidation --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Income economics --- Inflation --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Pension reform --- Pension spending --- Pensions --- Price Level --- Prices --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- United States
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This Selected Issues paper analyzes labor market asymmetries and macroeconomic adjustment in Germany. Empirical work reported shows that in Germany, negative demand shocks increase the unemployment rate by more than the decrease in the unemployment rate caused by a comparable-sized positive demand shock. The contribution of labor costs to explaining the high level of unemployment, particularly since unification, is studied. Empirical estimates are obtained for the wage gap—the deviation of actual labor costs from warranted labor costs based on estimated production functions assuming competitive factor markets and full employment.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Personal Finance -Taxation --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Corporate Taxation --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Labour --- income economics --- Pensions --- Public finance & taxation --- Corporate & business tax --- Unemployment rate --- Pension spending --- Wage gap --- Personal income tax --- Expenditure --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Income tax --- Income --- Germany --- Income economics
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This paper describes economic developments in Denmark during 1990–96. After a prolonged period of stagnation in the second half of the 1980s and early 1990s, GDP rose by 4¼ percent in 1994, reflecting a surge in domestic demand and recovery in export markets. The expansion of GDP slowed to a 2¾ percent pace in 1995 as domestic demand moderated and as exports decelerated sharply. The slowing of external markets intensified in the course of 1995 with the result that GDP in the fourth quarter was barely above its first quarter level.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Fiscal Policy --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Labor markets --- Labor force --- Unemployment rate --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Fiscal policy --- Expenditures, Public --- Prices --- Denmark --- Income economics
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This paper argues that an important group of labor market policies are complementary in the sense that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation. This may explain why the diverse, piecemeal labor market reforms in many European countries in recent years have had so little success in reducing unemployment. What is required instead is deeper labor market reforms across a broader range of complementary policies and institutions. To be politically feasible, these reforms must be combined with measures to address distributional issues.
Capacity --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Cost --- Crime & criminology --- Criminology --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Economic theory --- Income economics --- Industrial productivity --- International economics --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Production and Operations Management --- Production growth --- Production --- Productivity --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Total factor productivity --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- United States
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