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Paul J. J. Welfens European monetary union has been discussed for more than three decades and is likely to be realized in 1999. One may anticipate generous interpretations of the fiscal convergence criteria. Such generosity consistent with the Maastricht Treaty might impair the credibility of the ECB and the stability of the Euro, respectively, despite the fact that inflation is a monetary phenomenon and has little to do with government deficits, unless they were financed via the printing press, which is excluded in the Maastricht Treaty. The European Commission's forecast of spring 1997 suggests that Italy will have problems in joining the EMU starter group as the is expected to be 3. 2% in 1997 and even 3. 9% in 1998. A Italian deficitlGDP ratio fully developed EMU group (with all 15 cowltries included) would represent 38% of the OECD GDP, slightly higher than the U. S. with 33% (Japan 21%). The exports/GDP ratio of EU countries is 30%, the ratio with respect to exports outside the EU would be 10% (Japan, U. S. 8%). The share of the U. S. dollar in international currency reserves fell from 67% to 40% in 1995, while the share of European currencies increased from 13% to 37%. Prior to the EMU, market participants have to anticipate whether a transition to 1999 will bring windfall losses or gains in various bond markets.

AA / International- internationaal --- EEC / European Union - EU -Europese Unie - Union Européenne - UE --- 334.151.20 --- 333.453 --- 333.432.0 --- Monetary unions --- -Monetary policy --- -332.4566094 --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Common currencies --- Currency areas --- Currency unions --- Optimum currency areas --- Currency question --- Money --- Economische en monetaire unie van de Europese Gemeenschappen: algemeenheden. --- Internationale munt. Rekeneenheden. --- Monetaire akkoorden en conventies: algemeenheden. --- European Monetary System (Organization) --- Système monétaire européen (Organization) --- Europäisches Währungssystem (Organization) --- Sistema Monetario Europeo (Organization) --- Europees Monetair System (Organization) --- Europæisk monetær system (Organization) --- Euroopan valuuttajärjestelmä --- EMS (European Monetary System) --- E.M.S. (European Monetary System) --- EWS (European Monetary System) --- E.W.S. (European Monetary System) --- SME (European Monetary System) --- S.M.E. (European Monetary System) --- Monetary policy --- 332.4566094 --- Monetaire akkoorden en conventies: algemeenheden --- Internationale munt. Rekeneenheden --- Economische en monetaire unie van de Europese Gemeenschappen: algemeenheden --- Finance. --- International economics. --- Finance, general. --- International Economics. --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics

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Paul J.J. Welfens and Holger C. Wolf While the economies of Asia and, more recently, South as well as North America have enjoyed sustained high growth, the growth performance of western Europe and in particular continental Europe has been rather modest. Coupled with sizable improvements in labor productivity and - at best - steady capital productivity, growth proved insufficient to sustain employment levels, much less to replicate the US job creation success. Relative inflation performance has been much better: in the run-up to European Monetary Union inflation rates have dramatically converged towards the lower end of the distribution while risk premia on formerly high inflation economies have fallen. Yet, looking forward, the undoubted success in achieving price stability is mitigated by the lackluster growth -and in particular employment -performance. Indeed, the relative little attention paid to initiatives directed at raising economic growth is startling, not only in the light of the US policy record but also in light of the remarkable rebound of those European economies which have aggressively tackled the structural problems, most prominently the UK and Ireland.

Banks and banking --- Capital movements --- AA / International- internationaal --- EEU / Central & Eastern Europe --- RU / Russia - Rusland - Russie --- 338.340 --- 382.242.0 --- 333.130.1 --- 333.101 --- 338.8 --- 331.33 --- International finance --- 332.042 --- Algemene ontwikkeling in de Derde Wereld. --- Balans van het kapitaalverkeer: algemeenheden. --- Bankbedrijf. Buiten-balans verrichtingen. --- Banksysteem en bankstelsel. --- Economische groei. --- Structureel beleid. Reglementering. Dereglementering. Ordnungspolitik. --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Structureel beleid. Reglementering. Dereglementering. Ordnungspolitik --- Banksysteem en bankstelsel --- Bankbedrijf. Buiten-balans verrichtingen --- Algemene ontwikkeling in de Derde Wereld --- Economische groei --- Balans van het kapitaalverkeer: algemeenheden --- International economics. --- Finance. --- International Economics. --- Finance, general. --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Economic policy, Foreign --- Economic relations, Foreign --- Economics, International --- Foreign economic policy --- Foreign economic relations --- Interdependence of nations --- International economic policy --- International economics --- New international economic order --- Economic policy --- International relations --- Economic sanctions --- Banks and banking - Europe. --- Banks and banking - Europe, Eastern. --- Capital movements - Europe. --- Capital movements - Europe, Eastern.