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We find nonlinear feedback between the stock market and certain macroeconomic factors. This evidence calls into question the adequacy of these factors as a basis for a linear pricing model. It also means that the interaction between the economy and the stock market is more complicated than given by the simple relationship in Chen, Roll and Ross (1986). It also suggests that the univariate evidence for nonlinear dynamics in the stock market may be due to the complicated relationship between the macroeconomy and the stock market.
Inflation --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Investment & securities --- Stocks --- Consumption --- Industrial production --- Asset prices --- Prices --- Economics --- Industries
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This paper reviews developments in private capital flows to developing countries since the Mexican financial crisis in December 1994. The paper points out that a strong recovery in these flows masks some significant changes in their characteristics, particularly in the type of borrowers back toward sovereigns and the currency denomination of new issues shifted away from U.S. dollars. Terms of new bond issues became significantly less favorable than before the Mexican crisis. One of the most striking developments was the sharp increase in bond placements by developing countries in deutsche mark and yen. It is shown that relatively favorable credit ratings assigned by Japanese rating agencies facilitated some developing countries to tap the yen bond market.
Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Investments: Stocks --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- International Financial Markets --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Bonds --- International bonds --- Stock markets --- Stocks --- International capital markets --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Stock exchanges --- Capital market --- United States
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Increasing use of life insurance instruments and company-sponsored funds in France suggests that French households may be inclined to a greater reliance on financial savings as a source of retirement income. This paper examines the challenges imposed by an aging population on the pay-as-you-go basic and supplementary pension systems, the growth of life insurance and company-sponsored funds in the absence of a comprehensive legislation on prefunded pensions, and issues related to prefunding pension schemes, such as the possibility of an welfare enhancing transition to prefunding; effects on capital markets in view of the experience in other OECD countries; and the importance of the transportability of pensions and measures fostering competition in financial markets.
Insurance --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Pensions --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Finance --- Pension spending --- Insurance companies --- Income --- Expenditure --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- France
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This paper investigates empirically the degree of international integration of industrial and emerging country equity markets. It analyzes two issues: first, the extent to which equity prices have tended to move similarly across countries and regions in the long run; and second, the strength of cross-country “contagion” effects. The paper’s findings suggest that both intra-regional and inter-regional linkages across national equity markets have strengthened in recent years. In addition, using impulse response functions, the paper shows that cross-country contagion effects of country-specific shocks dissipate in a matter of weeks while contagion effects of global shocks take several months to unwind themselves.
Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- International Financial Markets --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Stocks --- Price indexes --- Asset prices --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- Stock exchanges --- Financial services industry --- United States
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This paper notes that, for the first time, the concept and treatment of reinvested earnings in the Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual and the 1993 System of National Accounts are fully harmonized. The paper presents the conceptual basis for the measurement of reinvested earnings and illustrative examples as to recording, from the Fund’s Balance of Payments Compilation Guide and Balance of Payments Textbook. Highlighted are the recommended time of recording of reinvested earnings, the calculation of earnings on a current operating basis, and the calculation of depreciation at replacement cost, notwithstanding possible practical difficulties in implementation.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Economic Methodology --- Exports and Imports --- Finance --- Financial Instruments --- Foreign direct investment --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Income economics --- Income --- Institutional Investors --- International Business --- International Economics: General --- International Investment --- Investment & securities --- Investments, Foreign --- Investments: Stocks --- Labor --- Labour --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomics --- Multinational Firms --- National accounts --- National income --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Pension Funds --- Stocks --- Wages --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General
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Insurance enterprises provide services, called insurance services, to policyholders. The values of such services are seldom, if ever, directly apparent; rather these values are implicitly entwined within the payment of premiums. This paper discusses the treatment of insurance services, and related transactions, in the balance of payments. A simple measure, based on a number of assumptions, of nonlife insurance services is considered. The assumptions underlying this measure are then relaxed. The treatment of life insurance, which has many of the characteristics of nonlife insurance, is then addressed. The paper concludes with a discussion on the practical aspects of measuring insurance transactions in the balance of payments.
Exports and Imports --- Insurance --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Economic Methodology --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- International Economics: General --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Trade: General --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Finance --- International economics --- Insurance companies --- Personal income --- Imports --- Income
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This paper argues that recent movements in closed-end emerging markets funds present a strong challenge to the leading explanations of the behavior of closed-end country fund prices. In particular, closed-end funds dedicated to Mexico and other Latin American stock markets developed large premia after the December 1994 devaluation of the Mexican peso and the subsequent financial crisis. The so-called “investor sentiment hypothesis” could explain these events only by suggesting that investors became very optimistic about emerging markets stocks, and especially Mexican stocks; this possibility seems unlikely given the facts surrounding the devaluation. We argue instead that a sensible explanation for recent dynamics of closed-end country funds is that investors in these funds are loss-averse, implying that they do not want to realize paper losses on their closed-end fund shares. This works to put a drag on the downward movement in closed-end fund prices.
Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Industries: Financial Services --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Stocks --- Mutual funds --- Stock markets --- Securities --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Financial services industry --- Stock exchanges --- Financial instruments --- Mexico
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The issue of informational efficiency in the evolution of asset prices is examined using data on equity markets in Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan over the period 1986–93. The analysis is carried out in two steps. The parameters of agents’ dynamic consumption and investment decisions are first estimated, and then the implied equity market price, based on market fundamentals, is compared with the actual evolution of equity market prices. While the informational efficiency of each of the three markets is found to be deficient, the causes of market inefficiency are varied. For Jordan it appears that a large negative shock to economic activity in the late 1980s caused agents to discount market fundamentals. For Turkey and Pakistan it is likely that institutional and legal rigidities in equity and banking markets resulted in these markets being illiquid, although this lack of market depth did reduce in severity for Turkey over the sample period, as liberalization of financial markets occurred.
Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Estimation --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Stock markets --- Stocks --- Asset prices --- Consumption --- Estimation techniques --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- National accounts --- Econometric analysis --- Stock exchanges --- Economics --- Econometric models --- Turkey
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Despite concerns are often voiced on the so called “excess volatility” of the stock market, little is known about the implications of market volatility for the real economy. This paper examines whether the stock market volatility affects real fixed investment. The empirical evidence obtained from the US data shows that market volatility has independent effects on investment over and above that of stock returns. Volatility and its changes are negatively related to investment growth. To the extent volatility depresses fixed capital formation and hence future income growth, the results suggest the desirability of reducing stock market volatility.
Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Investments: Options --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Contingent Pricing --- Futures Pricing --- option pricing --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Stock markets --- Asset prices --- Stocks --- Return on investment --- Options --- Financial markets --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- National accounts --- Stock exchanges --- Saving and investment --- Derivative securities --- United States --- Option pricing
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This study provides information on official financing for developing countries with the focus on low- and lower-middle-income countries. It updates the 1995 edition and reviews developments in direct financing by official and multilateral sources. Topics of interest include external debt sustainability for heavily indebted poor countries; new official financing flows to developing countries; developments in export credits; financing from multilateral institutions; debt restructuring by official bilateral creditors; plus, numerous appendices.
Arrears --- Banking --- Banks --- Debt burden --- Debt Management --- Debt service --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Depository Institutions --- Export credit --- Export credits --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Finance --- Financial Instruments --- Financial Risk Management --- Financial services law & regulation --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign Aid --- Industries: Financial Services --- Institutional Investors --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International relief --- International Trade Organizations --- International trade --- Investment & securities --- Loans --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Pension Funds --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Social Services and Welfare --- Social welfare & social services --- Sovereign Debt --- Trade Policy --- Russian Federation
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