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In this paper, we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers, but raise the relative wage of skilled workers. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. We find that changes in oil prices induce changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries. However, we find little evidence that oil price changes cause labor to consistently flow into those sectors with relative wage increases.
Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Commodities --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Economic theory --- United States
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This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during January-June 1995 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period. Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General --- National Deficit Surplus --- State and Local Government --- Intergovernmental Relations: General --- International Fiscal Issues --- International Public Goods --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Demand --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Agricultural Policy --- Food Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Labor Contracts --- Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: Public Policy --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General --- Comparative Economic Systems: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Monetary Policy --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: Firm --- Firm Behavior --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Tax Evasion and Avoidance --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Public Economics --- Economic Integration --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative --- International Migration --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Model Evaluation and Selection --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Information and Market Efficiency --- Event Studies --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs --- Survey Methods --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- State Space Models --- Trade: General --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- Simulation Methods --- Auctions --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Model Construction and Estimation --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Prices --- Other Production and Pricing Analysis --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Multinational Firms --- International Business --- International Financial Markets --- Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Other --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Real exchange rates --- Prices --- Money --- Debts, Public --- Russian Federation
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