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Scandinavia recorded very high growth rates between 1870 and 1914, catching up with the leaders. This paper estimates that about two-thirds of the Scandinavian catching up on Britain was due to the open economy forces of global factor and commodity market integration. All of the Scandinavian catching up on America was due to the same open economy forces. The question for the economist is: Why does the new growth theory spend so little time dealing with these open economy forces? The question for the economic historian is: Can the breakdown of global factor and commodity markets after 1914 explain a large share of the cessation of convergence up to 1950? Can the spectacular OECD convergence achieved after 1950 be explained by the resumption of the pre-1914 open economy conditions that contributed so much to Scandinavian catch-up?
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In early 1862, the United States government began issuing Greenbacks, a legal tender currency that was not convertible into gold. The government promised to redeem the Greenbacks in gold eventually, but speculators understood that the probability of redemption depended on Union Army military fortunes and political developments that affected the total cost of the war. To serve the speculative interest in gold, a market emerged for the purpose of trading Greenbacks for gold dollars. Because the market price of a Greenback reflected the public's perceptions of future war costs, the movement of these prices provides unique insights into how people at the time perceived various events. We use daily quotations of the gold price of Greenbacks to identify a set of dates during the Civil War that market participants regarded as turning points. In some cases, these dates coincide with events familiar from conventional historical accounts of the war. In other instances, however, market participants reacted strongly to events that historians have not viewed as very significant.
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Economic History --- Money --- Economic history
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Economic history. --- Economics --- History.
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Economic history --- Asia --- Economic conditions.
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