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This paper is an empirical study of the links between monetary variables and inflation based on Cagan’s equation and its rational expectations solution, when the forcing variable is a fractionally integrated process. As demonstrated by Hamilton and Whiteman, the existence of bubbles and other extraneous influences can be detected only by verifying the difference in the order of integration between the monetary base and the price level series. This paper shows that a fractionally differenced model overcomes Evans’ critique of this test and that chronic inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon caused by fiscal imbalance.

Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Economic Theory --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Expectations --- Speculations --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Monetary base --- Hyperinflation --- Fiscal policy --- Rational expectations --- Money --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Money supply --- Argentina

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The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Demand for Money --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Neoclassical --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: General --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Prices --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure --- Money --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Performance and Prospects --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Economic Development: Agriculture --- Natural Resources --- Energy --- Environment --- Other Primary Products --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Finance: Other --- Market Structure and Pricing: General --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Factor and Product Markets --- Industry Studies --- Population --- Socialist Enterprises and Their Transitions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Expectations --- Speculations --- Hypothesis Testing --- Estimation --- Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Financial Economics --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: General --- Agriculture: General --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Multinational Firms --- International Business --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- International Fiscal Issues --- International Public Goods --- History of Thought: Macroeconomics --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Structure and Scope of Government: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems --- Firm Organization and Market Structure --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Accounting and Auditing: General --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Efficiency --- Optimal Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Incidence --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Planning, Coordination, and Reform --- Index Numbers and Aggregation --- leading indicators --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Business Administration: General --- Corporate Culture --- Diversity --- Social Responsibility --- Accounting --- Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative --- Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: Africa --- Oceania --- Development Planning and Policy: General --- Development Planning and Policy: Other --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Social Security and Public Pensions --- Retirement --- Retirement Policies --- Unemployment Insurance --- Severance Pay --- Plant Closings --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- International Factor Movements and International Business: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies: Public Policy --- Economic Development: Human Resources --- Human Development --- Income Distribution --- Migration --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Organizational Behavior --- Transaction Costs --- Property Rights --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Economywide Country Studies: Europe --- Economic Integration --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Wage Level and Structure --- Wage Differentials --- Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits --- Private Pensions --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, and Changes --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Fiscal Policy --- National Security and War --- Asymmetric and Private Information --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Real exchange rates --- Monetary unions --- Currencies --- Commodity prices --- Economic integration --- Prices --- Labor market --- Exports --- United States --- E-Commerce --- Income economics --- Leading indicators