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Business cycles --- 331.01 --- AA / International- internationaal --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Evolutie van de economische cycli

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Economics, Mathematical --- Brownian motion processes --- 330.0151 --- Wiener processes --- Brownian movements --- Fluctuations (Physics) --- Markov processes --- Economics --- Mathematical economics --- Econometrics --- Mathematics --- Methodology --- Brownian motion processes. --- Economics, Mathematical. --- Mathématiques économiques --- Mouvement brownien, processus de --- Probabilités

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Aarde--Opwarming --- Algemene opwarming van de aarde --- Changement climatique --- Changement des climats --- Changements climatiques --- Changes [Climatic ] --- Climat [Changement du ] --- Climat--Changements --- Climate change --- Climate changes --- Climatic change --- Climatic changes --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climats [Modification des ] --- Cycles climatiques --- Fluctuations climatiques --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Global warming --- Klimaatveranderingen --- Modification des climats --- Modifications climatiques --- Opwarming [Algemene ] van de aarde --- Oscillations climatiques --- Prévision du temps (Météorologie) --- Réchauffement global --- Variations climatiques --- Veranderingen [Klimaat ] --- Weather forecasting --- Weervoorspelling (Meteorologie) --- Climatology --- Climatologie --- Climat --- Observations --- History --- Changements --- Histoire --- Climatologie. --- Paleoclimatologie. --- Changements. --- Aarde -- Opwarming --- Aquecimento global --- Climat -- Réchauffement --- Globale Erwärmung --- Klimaatopwarming --- Opwarming van de Aarde --- Réchauffement climatique --- Réchauffement de la Terre --- Réchauffement planétaire --- Terre -- Réchauffement --- Paleoclimatologie --- History. --- Climat - Changements

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Climatic changes --- Stream measurements --- River discharge measurements --- Stream gauging --- Streamflow --- Streamflow data --- Hydraulic measurements --- Water-power --- Changes, Climatic --- Changes in climate --- Climate change --- Climate change science --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Climatology --- Climate change mitigation --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- Computer simulation --- Measurement --- Environmental aspects --- Rhine River --- Climate. --- Meteorology. Climatology --- Rhine --- Global environmental change

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The financial press frequently suggest that the shape of yield curve reflects information about the prospects of the economy. This paper attempts to formalize the link between the yield curve and the real economic activity. A closed-form formula for the term structure of interest rates is derived. It is shown that the term structure embodies the market’s expectation about changes in the macroeconomic fundamental--the growth in real aggregate output of the economy. The paper then documents the use of bond market data for predicting GDP growth in the G-7 industrial countries. The results suggest that a simple measure of the slope of the yield curve, namely the yield spread, serves as a good predictor of future economic growth. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the yield spread compares favorably with that of the alternative stock price-based model and a univariate time series (ARMA) model. One practical implication is that it may be useful to add some measure of the term structure to the list of.

Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Finance --- Asset prices --- Yield curve --- Consumer price indexes --- Short term interest rates --- Production growth --- Prices --- Financial services --- Production --- Interest rates --- Price indexes --- Economic theory --- United Kingdom