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The paper examines the role of credibility in the conduct of exchange rate policy in developing countries, The analysis is based on a model in which policymakers are concerned about inflation and external competitiveness. Price setters in the nontraded goods sector of the economy adjust prices in reaction to anticipated fluctuations in the domestic price of tradable goods. This type of model is showm to generate a “devaluation bias” which undermines the credibility of a fixed exchange rate. The effect of reputational factors, signaling considerations, and joining a currency union as possible solutions to this bias is examined.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rates --- Conventional peg --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate policy --- Prices --- United Kingdom
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Traditionally the choice of exchange rate regime has been seen as a second-best policy choice, which can be directed toward mitigating the distortionary effects of price or information rigidities. In this paradigm the optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility is found to depend of the source and nature of shocks hitting an economy. More recent literature views the exchange rate as a widely and frequently seen manifestation of government policy with careful exchange-rate management emerging as a tool that can enhance shaky policy credibility.
Foreign Exchange --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Exchange rate policy --- Conventional peg --- Germany
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This study extends the research on balance-of-payments crises by investigating the dynamics of the collapse of a crawling exchange rate in the presence of an explicit link between the fiscal deficit and domestic credit. It shows that such an exchange rate regime is characterized by two potential steady-state equilibria. This introduces an ex-ante indeterminacy regarding the timing and magnitude of the speculative attack on international reserves in the event of a sustained inconsistency between the country’s fiscal and exchange rate policies. The paper discusses the conditions that would define the actual timing of the regime’s breakdown.
Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Domestic credit --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Government debt management --- Managed exchange rates --- Exchange rate policy --- Credit --- Debts, Public
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Under free capital mobility, a high-inflation country pursuing a nonaccommodating exchange rate policy will have higher real interest rates than its lower-inflation trading partners as long as that policy is not credible. If the policy gains credibility prior to inflation convergence, the sign of the real interest rate differential may be reversed. Developments in interest rate differentials and capital and reserve flows suggest that Italy’s nonaccommodating exchange rate policy has become significantly more credible in 1989-90. As improved credibility further limits their monetary autonomy, the Italian authorities will have to rely more on fiscal and incomes policies to promote disinflation.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate policy --- Real interest rates --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Financial services --- Prices --- Interest rates --- Italy
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We need to understand more deeply a number of critical issues that confront the World Bank and its member countries before we can transform knowledge into effective actions.
Armed Forces --- Defense budgets --- Military budgets --- Appropriations and expenditures --- E-books --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Women''s Studies' --- National Security and War --- Economics of Gender --- Non-labor Discrimination --- Trade: General --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Gender studies --- women & girls --- Finance --- Defense spending --- Women --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate policy --- Exports --- Expenditure --- Gender --- International trade --- Expenditures, Public --- Population --- United States
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This paper addresses analytical aspects of exchange rate policy and emphasizes the relationship among exchange rate flexibility, financial discipline, and international competitiveness.
International finance --- Developing countries --- Foreign exchange administration --- -LDC / Developping Countries - Pays En Développement --- 333.825 --- 333.450 --- 339.74 <1-772> --- 330.05 --- 332.456091724 --- Foreign exchange --- Deviezenpolitiek. Interventies. --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit. --- Monetaire buitenlandse politiek. Deviezenpolitiek--Onontwikkelde, onderontwikkelde gebieden --- Working papers --- 339.74 <1-772> Monetaire buitenlandse politiek. Deviezenpolitiek--Onontwikkelde, onderontwikkelde gebieden --- LDC / Developping Countries - Pays En Développement --- Theorie van het deviezenverkeer. Theorie van de koopkrachtpariteit --- Deviezenpolitiek. Interventies --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Currency --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Money --- Prices --- United States
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