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Devaluation, primary exports, and wages in Argentina : an unorthodox interpretation
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Year: 1990 Publisher: The Hague, Netherlands : Institute of Social Studies,

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Euromärkte und nationale Finanzmärkte : Geldmenge, Zins und Wechselkurs einer Eurowährung
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ISBN: 3631428405 Year: 1990 Publisher: Frankfurt am Main Lang

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Testing for labor market duality : the private wage sector in Cote d'Ivoire
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ISBN: 0821313932 Year: 1990 Publisher: Washington (D.C.): World Bank

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The Resurgence of Inventory Research : What Have We Learned?
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Recent empirical and theoretical research on business inventories is surveyed and critically evaluated. While most inventory research has had macroeconomic motivations, we focus on its microtheoretic basis and on potential conflicts between theory and evidence. The paper asks two principal questions. First, how can inventories, which are allegedly used by firms to stabilize production, nonetheless be a destabilizing factor at the macroeconomic level? Second, why, if firms are following the production-smoothing model, is production more variable than sales in many industries? We suggest that the so-called (S,s) model may help answer both questions.


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High Inflation and the Nominal Anchors of an Open Economy
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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A high inflation process is usually due to a real imbalance and cannot be cured without a correction of real furamenta1s. Yet it can be characterized as a quasi-stable nominal process which gets divorced from the real system in what Patinkin could call a valid classical dichotomy. This paper extends the existing seignorage model approach to multiple inflationary equilibria by rationalizing a high inflation equilibrium as well as its stability as the outcomes of sub-optimization by a 'soft' government. It considers the advantages as well as the weaknesses of using the exchange rate as the key nominal anchor in the various stages of stabilization to low (or zero) inflation. Finally the rationale for using multiple nominal anchors is also discussed. Applications of the theoretical arguments are illustrated from recent high inflation and stabilization experience.


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Taxes, Outward Orientation, and Growth Performance in Korea
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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This paper both discusses and evaluates the role of tax policy in the Korean growth process from the early 1960s to the late 1980s. It begins by reviewing the evolution of Korean policy over this developmental sequence, emphasizing three distinct regime switches, and the tax policies which were part of them. It then presents an analytical framework for quantitative assessment of the contribution of tax policies to this growth through induced intersectoral resource transfers and impacts on effort and labour supply in agriculture and manufacturing sectors. What emerges from the model calculations is that tax policy has played a relatively modest role in Korean growth and that one should look outside of tax policy for the main factors underlying strong Korean growth.


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Entry, Contestability, and Deregulated Airline Markets : An Event Study Analysis of People Express
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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A number of recent papers have studied the relationship between price and market structure in the deregulated airline industry through a cross-sectional analysis of city-pair markets. Yet, while interesting, several potential difficulties underlie the inferences drawn in these analyses. In this paper, we consider an alternative approach that uses stock price reactions to entry announcements to shed light on the nature of competitive behavior in this industry. The analysis sheds light on three issues. First, it offers a clean test of contestable market theory. Second, it provides evidence on the level of profits or sunk costs present in these markets. Third, it sheds light on the degree of competitive "localization" existing in the industry. The particular entry events that we focus on are those involving People Express Airline in 1984 and 1985. To provide a more complete picture of the effects of these entry events, we also examine the price and quantity changes that occurred following entry.


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Stock Prices and Bond Yields : Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Real stock prices seem to overreact to changes in long-term interest rates. That is, real stock prices drop when long-term interest rates rise (and rise when they fall) more than would be implied by a rational expectations present value model where expectations are based on a vector autoregression. This overreaction is not associated with any overreaction to changes in the short-run inflation rate. Over the last century real stock prices have shown little reaction to changes in inflation rates, and according to the model they should show little reaction. These conclusions were reached from an analysis of annual data in the united states 1871 to 1989 and the united Kingdom 1918 to 1989.


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Economic Growth and Convergence across The United States
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Year: 1990 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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A key economic issue is whether poor countries or regions tend to grow faster than rich ones: are there automatic forces that lead to convergence over time in levels of per capita income and product? After considering predictions of closed- and open-economy neoclassical growth theories, we examine data since 1840 from the U.S. states. We find clear evidence of convergence, but the findings can be reconciled quantitatively with neoclassical models only if diminishing returns to capital set in very slowly. The results from a broad sample of countries are similar if we hold constant a set of variables that proxy for differences in steady-state characteristics. Two types of existing theories seem to fit the facts: the neoclassical growth model with broadly-defined capital and a limited role for diminishing returns, and endogenous growth models with constant returns and gradual diffusion of technology across economies.


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Estimation of dynamic econometric models with errors in variables
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ISBN: 3540523588 3642488102 Year: 1990 Publisher: Berlin Springer-Verlag

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A new procedure for the maximum-likelihood estimation of dynamic econometric models with errors in both endogenous and exogenous variables is presented in this monograph. A complete analytical development of the expressions used in problems of estimation and verification of models in state-space form is presented. The results are useful in relation not only to the problem of errors in variables but also to any other possible econometric application of state-space formulations.

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