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Cuba poses multiple threats to the security of the Caribbean region. U.S. economic policies toward Cuba have been severe since 1960. Nevertheless, Cuba poses much more of a threat to the region today than it did in 1960. This study examines two policies that might impose further costs on the Cuban economy: publicizing the precariousness of Cuba's debt position with Western creditors, and structuring the Caribbean Basin Initiative in a manner adverse to Cuban interests. While neither of these policies is likely to be decisive, one or both might act to constrain resources available for supporting Cuban militarism. Neither can be construed as a direct sanction against Cuba, so their political costs to the United States should be minor. Both policies, however, are devoid of great symbolic significance, which might make them either desirable or undesirable at various times.

Debts, External

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Debts, External --- Loans, Foreign

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Debts, External. --- Loans, Foreign --- Risk. --- Evaluation.

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The paper investigates the sources of debt and debt difficulties for a group of Latin American countries. It is argued that external shocks -- oil, interest rates, world recession and the fall in real commodity prices -- cannot account by themselves for the problems. Budget deficits that accommodate terms of trade deterioration and disequilibrium exchange rates are central to a complete explanation. The paper documents that in Chile an extreme currency overvaluation led to a massive shift into imported consumer durables while in Argentina overvaluation in conjunction with financial instability led to large-scale capital flight. In the case of Brazil the budget deficit is the explanation for the growth in external indebtedness.The difference in the experience of the three countries reflects the difference in their openness to the world economy.

Foreign exchange --- Debts, External --- Mathematical models.

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Banks and banking, International --- Debts, External --- Game theory --- International finance