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Quantitative methods (economics) --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Mathematical models --- 339.5 --- 330.115.001.57 --- -AA / International- internationaal --- 303.8 --- 330.3 --- -339.015195 --- Economics --- Economics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Buitenlandse handel. Internationale handel. Ruilvoet --- Econometrische modellen. Simulatiemodellen --- Econometrische behandeling van een onderwerp. --- Methode in staathuishoudkunde. Statische, dynamische economie. Modellen. Experimental economics. --- Econometrics. --- Mathematical models. --- 330.115.001.57 Econometrische modellen. Simulatiemodellen --- 339.5 Buitenlandse handel. Internationale handel. Ruilvoet --- 339.015195 --- AA / International- internationaal --- Econometrische behandeling van een onderwerp --- Methode in staathuishoudkunde. Statische, dynamische economie. Modellen. Experimental economics --- Macroeconomics - Mathematical models --- Économétrie. --- Macroéconomie --- Modèles mathématiques.

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A more sophisticated expectational hypothesis than is traditionally used in the specification of macroeconometric models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z(t) in forming their expectations for periods t+l and beyond. These expectations may or may not be rational in the Muth sense. The results provide some evidence in favor of the more sophisticated hypothesis, but they are not strong enough to allow much weight tobe put on the hypothesis as yet. The evidence in favor of the hypothesis is strongest for households' response to future wages and prices in their consumption and labor supply decisions and for the Fed's response to future inflation rates.The sensitivity of the policy properties of my macroeconometric model to the more sophisticated hypothesis is also examined in the paper. The properties are not sensitive for a policy action in which government expenditures are changed. They are somewhat sensitive for an action in which personal tax rates are changed. In the latter case the properties are also sensitive to whether or not the policy action is anticipated.

Econometrics. --- Econometrics

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This paper considers that possibility that expected future government deficits directly affect economic decisions, in particular the decisions of the Federal Reserve. Some evidence is presented in Section II that indicates that the behavior of the Fed may be influenced by expected future deficits.The economic consequences of this behavior are examined in Section III. The results in this section show that fiscal policy is less effective if the Fed responds to expected future deficits than otherwise. Quantitative estimates of the differences in fiscal-policy effects are presented.