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blazersmuziek --- koperblazersmuziek --- anno 1200-1299 --- United States of America

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Trio's --- Koperblazers --- 14e eeuw

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This paper examines the implications of an endogenous money supply for the perceived(by econometricians) and actual nonneutrality of money in rational expectations models of the class put forward by Lucas (1972, 1973) and Barro(1976, 1980) that stress incomplete information. First,if there is contemporaneous policy response (e.g., to interest rates),then a simultaneous equations bias produces inconsistency in tests that use contemporaneous monetary statistics such as those proposed by King (1981) and Boschen-Grossman (1983).Thus, an econometrician might erroneously conclude that money is nonneutral ina fully classical model. Second, if money acts as a 'signal' about economic conditions then autonomous (policy induced) changes in the money stock can have real effects. In contrast to the nonneutrality of money in the Lucas-Barro analysis, which arises due to incomplete information about monetary aggregates, this nonneutrality requires that monetary information be utilized by economic agents.

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Can nominal contracts make a difference for the neutrality of money if these arise endogenously in general equilibrium? This paper utilizes aversion of Lucas's seminal equilibrium business cycle theory to address this question. However, we depart from Lucas in assuming that (1) agents have complete information about the money stock; (ii) fundamental shocks to the system are purely redistributive and private information; and (iii) moral hazard precludes conventional insurance markets.With an exogenous restriction on contracts, money is fully neutral. But, when this restrictionis lifted, efficient risk-sharing between suppliers and demanders leads to a potential nonneutralitv of money. In particular, if an increase in the money growth rate signals a rise in the dispersion of shocks to demanders' wealth,then prices adjust only partially to monetary shocks and there is a positive association between money and output.