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Money And Income, Causality Detection
Authors: ---
Year: 1977 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

In this paper we intend to survey and suggest the theoretical framework of the important aspects of causality detection with the purpose of conveying to the reader the essential features and the different forms in which inferences may be drawn from given data. Section II presents the basic theorem characterizing the causality events and suggests two feedback detection methods which, like the one suggested by Pierce and Haugh (1977), are based on correlation analysis. In Section III we survey other well-known causality detection methods and try to relate and to compare them with the methods suggested in Section II. Section IV briefly reviews the theoretical controversy of the relationship between money and income and presents some empirical evidence based on the methods discussed in this paper. Conclusions are in Section V.


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The Welfare Cost of Permanent Inflation and Optimal Short-Run Economic Policy
Authors: ---
Year: 1977 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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At a minimum, this paper should serve as a warning against too easy an acceptance of the view that the costs of sustained inflation are small relative to the costs of unemployment. If a temporary reduction in unemployment causes a permanent increase in inflation, the present value of the resulting future welfare costs may well exceed the temporary short-run gain. Previous analyses have underestimated the cost of a permanent increase in the inflation rate because they have ignored the growth of the economy and therefore the growth of the future instantaneous welfare costs. In the important case in which the growth of aggregate income exceeds the social discount rate, no reduction in unemployment can justify any permanent increase in the rate of inflation. Quite the contrary, if the inflation rate is above its optimal level, the economy should then be deflated to reduce the inflation rate regardless of the temporary consequences for unemployment.


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Monetary policy and the open economy : Mexico's experience
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ISBN: 0030281563 Year: 1977 Publisher: New York (N.Y.): Praeger

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The demand for money : theories and evidence
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ISBN: 0912212071 9780912212074 Year: 1977 Publisher: New York: Dun-Donnelley,


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Money and economic activity : an analytical approach
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0669008826 9780669008821 Year: 1977 Publisher: Lexington, Mass.: Lexington books,

The origins of international economic disorder : a study of United States international monetary policy from World War II to the present
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ISBN: 0520030095 Year: 1977 Publisher: Berkeley : University of California Press,

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