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Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Business & Economics --- Industries --- Petroleum products --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Storage. --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Refining --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- Storage --- E-books --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Investment & securities --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Supply shocks --- Commodities --- Economic theory --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Supply and demand --- United States
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The recent boom in unconventional energy production is transforming the energy landscape in North America, with important implications for global energy markets and the broader competitiveness outlook. This book, within a unifying policy perspective, examines the impact the upsurge in energy production has had on the manufacturing sectors of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and of the region as a whole, which produces nearly a quarter of the world’s energy.
Power resources --- Manufacturing industries --- Industries --- Business & Economics --- Manufactures --- Energy --- Energy resources --- Power supply --- Natural resources --- Energy harvesting --- Energy industries --- E-books --- United States --- Investments: Energy --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Energy --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: General --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Natural gas sector --- Manufacturing --- Energy sector --- Energy prices --- Oil --- Economic sectors --- Commodities --- Gas industry --- Petroleum industry and trade
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We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008–2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted by the model, and for countries whose governments’ finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a country’s oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable.
Petroleum --- Petroleum products --- Petroleum reserves --- Oil reserves --- Oil supply --- Petroleum supply --- Reserves of petroleum --- Oil fields --- Mazut --- Hydraulic fluids --- Coal-oil --- Crude oil --- Oil --- Caustobioliths --- Mineral oils --- Prospecting --- Economic aspects. --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Reserves --- Refining --- Prospecting&delete& --- Economic aspects --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Optimization Techniques --- Programming Models --- Dynamic Analysis --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Oil production --- Asset prices --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Commodities --- Production --- Taxes --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States
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This paper discusses Ukraine’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring. The Ukrainian economy has been in recession since mid-2012, and the outlook remains challenging. In January–September 2013, GDP contracted by 1¼ percent year-over-year, reflecting lower demand for Ukrainian exports and falling investments. Consumer prices stayed flat, held down by decreasing food prices and tight monetary policy. The fiscal stance loosened in 2012–2013, contributing to the buildup of vulnerabilities. Ukraine remains current on all its payments to the IMF, and the authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to repay all outstanding IMF credit.
Competition --- Competition (Economics) --- Competitiveness (Economics) --- Economic competition --- Commerce --- Conglomerate corporations --- Covenants not to compete --- Industrial concentration --- Monopolies --- Open price system --- Supply and demand --- Trusts, Industrial --- Economic aspects --- Ukraine --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Financial Services --- Industries: Energy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Finance --- Government debt management --- Exchange rates --- Public debt --- External debt --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Energy sector --- Economic sectors --- Banks and banking --- Debts, Public --- Monetary policy --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, External --- Energy industries
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