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Can Property Taxes Reduce House Price Volatility? Evidence from U.S. Regions
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ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475557108 1475552793 9781475552799 9781475557107 1475557086 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We use a novel dataset on effective property tax rates in U.S. states and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over the 2005–2014 period to analyze the relationship between property tax rates and house price volatility. We find that property tax rates have a negative impact on house price volatility. The impact is causal, with increases in property tax rates leading to a reduction in house price volatility. The results are robust to different measures of house price volatility, estimation methodologies, and additional controls for housing demand and supply. The outcomes of the analysis have important policy implications and suggest that property taxation could be used as an important tool to dampen house price volatility.


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Investment Slowdown in Denmark: Diagnosis and Policy Options
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ISBN: 1484368495 9781484368497 1484368479 Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Total investment in Denmark has experienced a sharp slowdown following the global financial crisis. This slowdown has coincided with a decline in labor productivity and expansion of the current account surplus. This paper presents stylized facts summarizing the investment slowdown followed by an empirical analysis identifying its drivers. The results suggest that the decline in output has contributed to investment slowdown, consistent with predictions of the accelerator model. However, other factors, including high leverage and structural rigidities in product markets, also played a role.


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Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1475543530 1475529147 1475579799 1475542798 1283947684 9781475542790 9781475543537 9781475529142 9781475543537 9781475579796 9781283947688 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/271 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We analyze determinants of sovereign bond yields in 22 advanced economies over the 1980-2010 period using panel cointegration techniques. The application of cointegration methodology allows distinguishing between long-run (debt-to-GDP ratio, potential growth) and short-run (inflation, short-term interest rates, etc.) determinants of sovereign borrowing costs. We find that in the long-run, government bond yields increase by about 2 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in government debt-to-GDP ratio and by about 45 basis points in response to a 1 percentage point increase in potential growth rate. In the short-run, sovereign bond yields deviate from the level determined by the long-run fundamentals, but about half of the deviation adjusts in one year. When considering the impact of the global financial crisis on sovereign borrowing costs in euro area countries, the estimations suggest that spreads against Germany in some European periphery countries exceeded the level determined by fundamentals in the aftermath of the crisis, while some North European countries have benefited from “safe haven” flows.


Book
Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1475578083 9781475578089 1475572913 9781475572919 1475578032 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015. We look for, but do not find, conclusive evidence of bias in procedures in relation to country size. The paper also briefly reviews the literature on political economy factors and policy biases, and offers some reflections on the euro area architecture.


Book
Taxation and Leverage in International Banking
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1475549385 1475572204 1475552211 147554068X 9781475549386 9781475540680 9781475572209 9781475540680 9781475572209 9781475552218 Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper explores how corporate taxes affect the financial structure of multinational banks. Guided by a simple theory of optimal capital structure it tests (i) whether corporate taxes induce subsidiary banks to raise their debt-asset ratio in light of the traditional debt bias; and (ii) whether international corporate tax differentials vis-a-vis foreign subsidiary banks affect the intra-bank capital structure through international debt shifting. Using a novel subsidiary-level dataset for 558 commercial bank subsidiaries of the 86 largest multinational banks in the world, we find that taxes matter significantly, through both the traditional debt bias channel and the international debt shifting that is due to the international tax differentials. The latter channel is more robust and tends to be quantitatively more important. Our results imply that taxation causes significant international debt spillovers through multinational banks, which has potentially important implications for tax policy.


Book
Fiscal Crises
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475592256 9781475592252 1475592159 9781475592153 1475592175 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.

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