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Large fiscal financing needs, both in advanced and emerging market economies, have often been met by borrowing heavily from domestic banks. As public debt approached sustainability limits in a number of countries, however, high bank exposure to sovereign risk created a fragile inter-dependence between fiscal and bank solvency. This paper presents a simple model of twin (sovereign and banking) crisis that stresses how this interdependence creates conditions conducive to a self-fulfilling crisis.

Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Financial crises. --- Banks and banking. --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Crises --- Banks and banking --- Bank loans --- Financial crises --- Risk --- Debts, Public --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Economics --- Uncertainty --- Probabilities --- Profit --- Risk-return relationships --- Bank credit --- Loans --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Financial Crises --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Nonbank financial institutions --- Domestic debt --- Financial services industry --- Argentina

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We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about ½ of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility appears to have played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings have been a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.

Business cycles --- Business cycles. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Information Management --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Business Cycles --- Technological Change: Choices and Consequences --- Diffusion Processes --- Knowledge management --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Technology transfer --- Current account --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Adjustment process --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Technology --- Balance of payments --- United States