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Book
Concordance in Business Cycles
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462359132 1452741204 1281607320 9786613788030 1451893000 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We study the properties of a test that determines whether two time series comove. The test computes a simple nonparametric statistic for “concordance,” which describes the proportion of time that the cycles of two series spend in the same phase. We establish the size and power properties of this test. As an illustration, the procedures are applied to output series from selected major industrial countries. We find limited evidence of widespread concordance for these countries.


Book
A Statistical Analysis of Banking Performance in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union in the 1990s
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462380204 1451996519 1281601292 9786613781987 1451898460 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Private foreign banks dominate the banking system although their market share declined in the 1990s while that of private indigenous banks increased. The banking system was not concentrated either within or across countries. Stigler’s survivor test indicated that large banks tended to reduce their scale over time. Private foreign and private indigenous banks exhibited similar distributions with respect to operating expenses but private foreign banks were most profitable. High interest rate spreads appeared attributable to higher average costs related to market size and geographic peculiarities.


Book
The Efficiency of Education Expenditure in Portugal
Author:
ISBN: 1462385176 1452770360 1282108891 1451904371 9786613802248 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper assesses the efficiency of education expenditure in Portugal and delineates a possible agenda for reform. Portugal’s low educational performance has coincided with the highest level of primary and secondary education expenditure to GDP in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), suggesting considerable inefficiency. Empirical results from the application of a nonparametric technique for production frontier estimation (Free Disposable Hull analysis) support this view. Among the reforms that could be considered to raise educational efficiency are the adoption of a goal-oriented management and incentive system; establishment of minimum student/teacher ratios; and an easing of employment and work rules governing public school teachers.


Book
Global Poverty Estimates : A Sensitivity Analysis
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1463988818 1463992750 1283553074 9786613865526 1463940270 1463922000 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies. In this paper we undertake a novel sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices in estimating global poverty. We measure global poverty using different data sources, parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, and multiple poverty lines. Our results indicate that estimates of global poverty vary significantly when they are based alternately on data from household surveys versus national accounts but are relatively consistent across different estimation methods. The decline in poverty over the past decade is found to be robust across methodological choices.


Book
Institutions and Growth : a GMM/IV Panel VAR Approach
Author:
ISBN: 1513555146 1513544314 1513509632 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Both sides of the institutions and growth debate have resorted largely to microeconometric techniques in testing hypotheses. In this paper, I build a panel structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for a short panel of 119 countries over 10 years and find support for the institutions hypothesis. Controlling for individual fixed effects, I find that exogenous shocks to a proxy for institutional quality have a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP per capita. On average, a 1 percent shock in institutional quality leads to a peak 1.7 percent increase in GDP per capita after six years. Results are robust to using a different proxy for institutional quality. There are different dynamics for advanced economies and developing countries. This suggests diminishing returns to institutional quality improvements.


Book
The Impact of IMF-Supported Programs on FDI in Low-income Countries
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ISBN: 1513530747 1513565737 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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It is common for IMF-supported adjustment programs with low-income member countries (LICs) to project that they will facilitate FDI inflows. The main objective of this paper is to empirically examine this hypothesis. Using an unbalanced panel dataset for 73 low-income countries over the period 1980–2012, and two different econometric methods that address the selection-bias problem, the empirical results robustly show that participating in IMF-supported program is associated with a significant increase in FDI inflows.


Book
Adjustment Costs, Irreversibility and Investment Patterns in African Manufacturing
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ISBN: 1462365086 1452747210 1281268631 1451897960 9786613778307 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines dynamic patterns of investment in Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Zambia and Zimbabwe, assessing the consistency of those patterns with different adjustment cost structures. Using survey data on manufactured firms, we document the importance of zero investment episodes and lumpy investment. The proportion of firms experiencing large investment spikes is significant in explaining aggregate manufacturing investment. Taken together, evidence from descriptive statistics, average investment regressions modeling the response to capital imbalance, and transition data analysis indicate that irreversibility is an important factor considered by firms when making investment plans. The picture is not unanimous however, and some explanations for the mixed results are proposed.


Book
Sources of Economic Growth in East Asia : A Nonparametric Assessment
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462333958 1452771499 1281604135 9786613784827 1451891105 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The conventional growth-accounting approach to estimating the sources of economic growth requires unrealistically strong assumptions about the competitiveness of factor markets and the form of the underlying aggregate production function. This paper outlines a new approach utilizing nonparametric derivative estimation techniques that does not require imposing these restrictive assumptions. The results for East Asian countries show that output elasticities of capital and labor are different from the income shares of these factors, and that the growth of total factor productivity over the period 1960-95 has been an important factor in the overall growth performance of these countries.


Book
Desynchronized : The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
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ISBN: 1463936362 1463931115 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.


Book
Made in Mexico : Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1498323154 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper assesses the real effects of the energy reform in Mexico by looking at its impact on manufacturing output through changes in energy prices. Using sub-sector and state-level manufacturing output data, along with past variation in energy prices, we find electricity prices––relative to oil and gas––to be more important in the manufacturing process, with a one standard deviation reduction in electricity prices leading to a 2.8 percent increase in manufacturing output. Our estimated elasticities together with plausible reductions in electricity tariffs derived from the energy reform, could increase manufacturing output by up to 3.6 percent, and overall real GDP by 0.6 percent. Larger reductions are possible over the long run if increased efficiency in the sector leads electricity prices to converge to U.S. levels. Moreover, including the impact of lower electricity tariffs on the services sector, could lead to significantly larger effects on GDP. Accounting for endogeneity of unit labor costs in a panel VAR setting leads to an additional indirect channel which amplifies the impact of electricity prices on output.

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