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Since 1978 the Chinese economy has grown on average more than 9 percenta year. Per capita income has nearly quadrupled in the past 15 years andsome analysts predict that within 20 years the Chinese economy will belarger than that of the United States. This pamphlet analyzes the reasonsfor the extraordinary growth of the Chinese economy.
Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Productivity --- Labor --- Production --- Industrial productivity --- Labor economics --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics
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The IMF provides training to its membership in its core areas of expertise mainly through its Institute for Capacity Development (ICD) or formerly the IMF Institute (INS). This paper looks at the methods that ICD used to evaluate this activity and analyzes the data collected over the period 2006–13. Since 2015, ICD has undertaken a review of its curriculum and revamped its courses and evaluations. Hence this paper provides a detailed analysis of the situation prior to the review.The study's novel feature is its attempt to distill information from all evaluation sources in one place. It also conducts analysis to explain the evaluation results using participant demographic information. An important message that emerges from the different surveys is that ICD’s training program is well liked. Notable differences in results surface when sorting evaluations results by course type or by geographic location, and whether evaluations were filled out by participants or by their sponsoring managers.
Macroeconomics --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Personal income --- Labor --- National accounts --- Income --- Labor economics --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics
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The momentum behind the cyclical global expansion remains strong. But escalating trade conflicts and financial market volatility highlight downside risks beyond the next several quarters. To sustain the upswing, policy makers need to enhance financial sector resilience, start rebuilding policy space, and implement structural reforms–including on corruption and governance. Countries should work to promote an open and rulesbasedmultilateral trade system that works for all, and to durably reduce excess global imbalances. A cooperative approach to regulation will reap the benefits of financial technology, while addressing risks to stability and integrity. The Fund is embarking on major policy reviews, including on surveillance, the Financial Sector Assessment Program, program conditionality, concessional lending tools, debt sustainability analysis, and capacity development. We have also launched a comprehensive work program on the opportunities and challenges from digitalization.
Economic history. --- Income economics --- Labor economics --- Labor Economics: General --- Labor --- Labour --- Macroeconomics
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This paper assesses a decade of experience in civil service reform in a sample of 32 sub-Saharan African countries. Many countries have made an important start towards reducing excessive staffing levels and the nominal wage bill, but less progress has been made in decompressing salary differentials in favor of higher-grade staff. In the CFA franc zone countries, real wages fell sharply after the 1994 devaluation, but the wage bill relative to tax revenue is still high in many countries. There is a need to consolidate quantitative first-generation reforms that contribute to macroeconomic stabilization. Equally important is the need to make progress on qualitative second-generation reforms, especially remuneration and promotion policies that reward performance and measures to improve civil service management. Such policies will require strong political commitment by governments.
Labor --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Civil service & public sector --- Labour --- income economics --- Civil service --- Civil service reform --- Real wages --- Economic theory --- Uganda --- Income economics
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Recent theoretical and empirical work has cast doubt on the hypotheses of a linear Phillips curve and a symmetric quadratic loss function underlying traditional thinking on monetary policy. This paper analyzes the Barro-Gordon optimal monetary policy problem under alternative loss functions—including an asymmetric loss function corresponding to the “opportunistic approach” to disinflation—when the Phillips curve is convex. Numerical simulations are used to compare the implications of the alternative loss functions for equilibrium levels of inflation and unemployment. For parameter estimates relevant to the United States, the symmetric loss function dominates the asymmetric alternative.
Inflation --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Unemployment rate --- Unemployment --- Inflation targeting --- Monetary tightening --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- United States --- Income economics
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We study the determinants of employment and wages in the public sector, using a new set of panel data for 34 LDCs and 21 OECD countries from 1972–992, by estimating equations suggested by an efficiency wage model. We find that government employment is positively associated with the relaxation of resource constraints (the revenue-to-GDP ratio and foreign financing in the case of developing countries and GDP per capita in the case of OECD countries), urbanization, the level of education, and certain countercyclical pressures for government hiring (the real effective exchange rate for developing countries and private employment for OECD countries). Certain measures of government wages are positively associated with government revenues and negatively associated with the level of education, government debt, and countercyclical pressures.
Labor --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Civil service & public sector --- Public employment --- Public sector wages --- Civil service --- Economic theory --- United States --- Income economics
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The main focus of the “wage bargaining” literature has been on the factors promoting real wage flexibility at the macro level. This paper, in contrast, examines the microeconomic issues of wage bargaining. More specifically, this paper appraises the following questions: (a) what are the conditions under which a firm prefers decentralized to centralized bargaining?, (b) what are the characteristic features of firms which prefer decentralized to centralized bargaining?, and (c) has the proportion of firms which prefer decentralized bargaining increased over time? These questions are examined in an efficiency wage model with insider-outsider features. This paper provides useful theoretical insights for understanding the issues involved in shifting from centralized to decentralized wage bargaining.
Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Wages --- Wage bargaining --- Real wages --- Wage adjustments --- Labor economics --- Sweden --- Income economics
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This paper shows how the internal job market for participants in the IMF Economist Program (EPs) could be redesigned to eliminate most of the shortcomings of the current system. The new design is based on Gale and Shapley's (1962) Deferred Acceptance Algorithm (DAA) and generates an efficient and stable outcome. An Excel-based computer program, EPMatch, implements the algorithm and applies it to the internal job market for EPs. The program can be downloaded from http://www.people.hbs.edu/gbarron/EPMatch_ for_Excel.html.
Economists. --- Social scientists --- International Monetary Fund. --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Macroeconomics --- Bargaining Theory --- Matching Theory --- Bureaucracy --- Administrative Processes in Public Organizations --- Corruption --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor --- Labor economics --- China, People's Republic of --- Income economics
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A standard open-economy model is used to show that price stabilization programs are more likely to succeed if labor contracts specify forward-looking wage indexation. Compared with contracts specifying backward-looking wage indexation or wages based on static expectations, such contracts will result in a greater reduction in inflation with lower output costs, smaller misalignment of real wages, smaller outflows of reserves, smaller disruptions caused by policy announcements, and a reduced impact of some shocks during price stabilization programs. These results are generally true whether or not capital is mobile and whether or not expectations are rational.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Wage indexation --- Real wages --- Wages --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Price stabilization --- Colombia --- Income economics
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The paper focuses on distributional consequences of macroeconomic adjustment. The preferences of economic agents over the level of the real exchange rate derived from standard models are monotonic, with agents favoring either an infinitely appreciated or depreciated rate. To generate less extreme preferences, a model is presented where appreciation would depress economic activity, while a large depreciation would hit the tradable sector by limiting the availability of labor, offsetting the favorable price effect. The model is in the spirit of the dependent economy model, but built on explicit microfoundations. The results can be used to analyze political economy aspects of macroeconomic adjustment.
Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Political Economy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Political economy --- Real exchange rates --- Wages --- Income --- Labor economics --- Economics --- Income economics
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