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“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Capital account --- Current account balance --- Current account --- Capital account balance --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- Korea, Republic of
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This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account and macroeconomic indicators to examine the size and sustainability of Nigerian current account deficits over the 1960-97 period. The results indicate that the Nigerian economy appeared to satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint during this period. However there were years marked by excessive current account deficits. The results also support the view that current account deficits accompanied by macroeconomic instability and structural weaknesses can degenerate in to an external crisis.
Exports and Imports --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Current account --- Current account deficits --- Current account balance --- External debt --- Current account surpluses --- Balance of payments --- Debts, External --- Nigeria
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The issue of whether constraints should be placed on fiscal policies when moving to European monetary union is examined in the context of the use of fiscal policy for macroeconomic stabilization purposes. Examples of shocks hitting French and German economies are considered: an appreciation of their joint exchange rate against other currencies, an inflation shock, and an oil price increase. Except in the third case, flexible use of fiscal policies in the two countries is likely to give better outcomes than a system with constraints on their use. For the oil price shock, there seems to be a good case for policy coordination, not for ceilings on fiscal deficits.
Balance of payments --- Current Account Adjustment --- Current account balance --- Current account deficits --- Current account --- Economic integration --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary unions --- Public Finance --- Short-term Capital Movements --- France
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This paper examines the external sustainability and competitiveness of Benin’s economy. Balance of payments flows suggest Benin’s external position is sustainable. Large trade and current account deficits are comfortably financed by inflows through the capital and financial accounts, in particular project grants and loans, private capital, and inflows to commercial banks. It is estimated that Benin could sustain a net foreign liability position in the range of 40–60 percent of GDP, corresponding to current account deficits of 3–5 percent of GDP.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real effective exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Current account balance --- Current account deficits --- Current account --- Balance of payments --- Benin
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The Selected Issues paper on Jordan analyzes the Jordanian dinar, which has historically operated within a fixed exchange rate regime. The deterioration in 2004 and 2005 reflected an exceptionally rapid increase in imports, as the saving-investment balance shifted. Following an improvement in 2006, the current account again deteriorated in 2007 from a negative impact of international food and fuel prices. Import developments have been the single most important determinant of swings in the current account, followed to a lesser extent by the impact of exports and grants.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Current account --- Real effective exchange rates --- Current account deficits --- Imports --- Current account balance --- Balance of payments --- International trade --- Jordan
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Although capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, they also pose a challenge for the conduct of economic policy. This paper proposes a conceptual taxonomy to guide the design of policy responses in the face of capital flows. We explore how responses to capital surges should be differentiated based on the source of balance of payments pressures. We also examine whether the policy choices in emerging market countries conform to the taxonomy's predictions and find some correspondence, especially during periods of high global liquidity.
Exports and Imports --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Capital inflows --- Capital flows --- Current account surpluses --- Current account deficits --- Current account balance --- Balance of payments --- Capital movements --- Turkey
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Wirtschafts- und Rechnungsbücher bieten mehrdimensionale Zugänge und erfordern multidisziplinäre Annäherungen. Dass sie weit mehr sind als Einnahmen- und Ausgabeverzeichnisse zeigen die hier vorliegenden 17 Beiträge mit Beispielen von Lübeck bis Lyon. Sie vereinen die Ergebnisse eines Workshops, der diese Gattung serieller Quellen von Seiten der Geschichtswissenschaft und der Historischen Sprachforschung, der Editions- und Medienwissenschaft sowie der historischen Wirtschafts- und Betriebswirtschaftswissenschaft in den Blick genommen hat.
Account books --- Bookkeeping --- History --- Early works to 1800
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Following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1992, several low-income countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) accumulated substantial external debt in a short time span, about half of which is owed to multilateral financial institutions. Three factors contributed to the current debt burden. First, the initial years of transition brought large systemic economic disruptions, loss of transfers from the center and collapse of trade relations among Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) countries, and negative terms of trade shocks. Second, fiscal and other reforms, and consequently, growth revival, took longer than expected. Third, overoptimism by multilaterals contributed to the high debt levels. If external financial assistance, which was needed because of high social costs of the transition, had come in the form of grants in the first two or three years of the transition, the debt burden would have been lower and sustainable.
Debts, External --- Debts, External. --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Exports and Imports --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- External debt --- Current account deficits --- Current account balance --- Current account --- Current account imbalances --- Balance of payments --- United States
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The paper investigates cyclical fluctuations in the current and financial (formerly capital) accounts of the balance of payments and major underlying components for nine industrial countries. The empirical model uses as explanatory variables domestic output growth, price inflation, real exchange rate fluctuations, energy price inflation, global growth, and regional growth. The evidence from the estimation of the model indicates the importance of fluctuations in output growth to the cyclicality of the current and financial account balances. The necessary and sufficient condition to sustain a large current account deficit is high domestic growth, which tends to stimulate financial inflows and provides adequate resources for financing. Other factors appear to be less important to the cyclicality of the current and financial account balances and their negative correlations.
Balance of payments -- Developed countries. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Exports -- Developed countries. --- Imports -- Developed countries. --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International economics --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Current account balance --- Financial account --- Current account --- Current account deficits --- Balance of payments --- International finance --- Prices --- United States --- Imports --- Exports
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This paper compares two approaches for examining the extent to which a country’s actual real effective exchange rate is consistent with economic fundamentals: the FEER approach, which involves calculating the real exchange rate that equates the current account at full employment with sustainable net capital flows, and the BEER approach, which uses econometric methods to establish a behavioral link between the real rate and relevant economic variables. An exchange rate model is estimated for the G-3 currencies to provide illustrative comparisons of BEERs and FEERs.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Current account --- Real effective exchange rates --- Capital account --- Balance of payments --- United States
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