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This paper addresses whether parallel market exchange rates in Africa behave in the long run in a manner consistent with the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. A recent econometric method, the panel co-integration test, enables us to examine the long-run PPP hypothesis by pooling the time-series data of several countries. This approach is particularly useful when analyzing African countries, which often do not have long time series. Using pooled data for 16 African countries, the study concludes that the behavior of parallel market exchange rates in Africa is consistent with the long-run PPP hypothesis.

Foreign Exchange --- Public Finance --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Purchasing power parity --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Expenditure --- Public-private sector cooperation --- South Africa

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The Danish flexicurity model has attracted attention among policymakers in Europe, because it suggests that a flexible labor market can coexist with a generous welfare system to achieve low unemployment. Using a panel of 19 countries over 1960-2002, the paper identifies the elements of the flexicurity model that may have contributed to the low unemployment rate. A theoretical model of dynamic policies is constructed to analyze whether the model can be emulated by other countries. Focusing on the financing aspect, the paper finds that effective implementation will depend on the initial unemployment level and budgetary situation of the country.

Labor --- Labor Economics Policies --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Unemployment rate --- Active labor market policies --- Labor markets --- Unemployment --- Labor market flexibility --- Manpower policy --- Labor market --- Denmark

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We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.

Macroeconomics. --- Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Fiscal Policy --- Externalities --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Spillovers --- Expenditure --- Fiscal multipliers --- Current account --- Fiscal policy --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Balance of payments --- International finance --- Expenditures, Public --- Germany

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This paper assesses whether and how financial development triggers the occurrence of banking crises. It builds on a database that includes financial development as well as financial access, depth and efficiency for almost 100 countries. Through estimation of a dynamic logit panel model, it appears that financial development, from an institutional dimension and to a lesser extent from a market dimension, triggers financial instability within a one- to two-year horizon. Additionally, whereas financial access is destabilizing for advanced countries, it is stabilizing for emerging and low income ones. Both results have important implications for macroprudential policies and financial regulations.

Finance --- Financial statistics --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Financial Crises --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Financial sector development --- Banking crises --- Financial crises --- Logit models --- Systemic crises --- Financial markets --- Econometric analysis --- Financial services industry --- Econometric models --- United States

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We examine empirically the episode of extraordinary turbulence in global financial markets during 1998. The analysis focuses on the market assessment of credit risk captured by daily movements in bond spreads for twelve countries. A dynamic latent factor model is estimated using indirect inference to quantify the effects of unanticipated shocks across borders or "contagion," controlling for common global shocks, country-specific shocks and regional factors. The results show that there were substantial international contagion effects resulting from both the Russian and LTCM crises. The proportion of volatility explained by contagion is not necessarily larger in developing than in developed nations.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Bonds --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Financial Crises --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Financial crises --- International bonds --- International capital markets --- Yield curve --- Securities markets --- Financial markets --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Capital market --- Bonds --- Interest rates --- United States