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The second edition of Non-extensive Entropy Econometrics for Low Frequency Series provides a new and robust power-law-based, non-extensive entropy econometrics approach to the economic modelling of ill-behaved inverse problems. Particular attention is paid to national account-based general equilibrium models known for their relative complexity.In theoretical terms, the approach generalizes Gibbs-Shannon-Golan entropy models, which are useful for describing ergodic phenomena. In essence, this entropy econometrics approach constitutes a junction of two distinct concepts: Jayne's maximum entropy principle and the Bayesian generalized method of moments. Rival econometric techniques are not conceptually adapted to solving complex inverse problems or are seriously limited when it comes to practical implementation.Recent literature showed that amplitude and frequency of macroeconomic fluctuations do not substantially diverge from many other extreme events, natural or human-related, once they are explained in the same time (or space) scale. Non-extensive entropy is a precious device for econometric modelling even in the case of low frequency series, since outputs evolving within the Gaussian attractor correspond to the Tsallis entropy limiting case of Tsallis q-parameter around unity. This book introduces a sub-discipline called Non-extensive Entropy Econometrics or, using a recent expression, Superstar Generalised Econometrics. It demonstrates, using national accounts-based models, that this approach facilitates solving nonlinear, complex inverse problems, previously considered intractable, such as the constant elasticity of substitution class of functions.This new proposed approach could extend the frontier of theoretical and applied econometrics.
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Le Maroc ambitionne de rejoindre le rang des pays émergents et de réussir un développement dynamique et équitable. Porté par cet objectif, le Maroc s'est engagé dans un programme de modernisation et de transformation profonde du pays depuis la fin des années 90. Pour permettre au Maroc de franchir une nouvelle étape dans son développement et d'enclencher une dynamique de croissance forte, pérenne et inclusive, l'OCDE a identifié trois axes de réformes essentielles. Le premier vise à renforcer la compétitivité des entreprises industrielles pour donner une nouvelle impulsion à la transformation structurelle. Le deuxième a pour objectif de relever le niveau de formation de la population et de le mettre en adéquation avec les besoins du marché du travail. Le troisième cherche à renforcer la cohérence des stratégies sectorielles pour accroître l'efficacité des politiques publiques et de l'action de l'État. Ce deuxième volume de l'Examen multidimensionnel du Maroc fournit des recommandations détaillées sur chacun de ces axes de réforme, et ce à partir d'une analyse approfondie et d'un processus participatif mené avec les parties prenantes marocaines.
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The Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) has expanded considerably since 2008, including in the non-traditional elements of the safety net such as Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs). The resulting multi-layered structure of the GFSN makes collaboration between its various elements more important than in the past. Specifically, stronger collaboration between the Fund and RFAs would help increase the effective firepower of the GFSN and ensure a timely deployment of resources. The Fund's experience in macroeconomic adjustment and its universal risk pooling would combine with the greater regional knowledge and country ownership brought the RFA. In this way, improved collaboration between the Fund and RFAs, including in co-financing, would significantly reduce the risk of contagion by encouraging countries to seek early assistance from the Fund.This paper is part of a broader set of proposals to fortify the GFSN (IMF, 2017b, c, d). It proposes both modalities for collaboration-across capacity development, surveillance, and lending-and some operational principles to help guide future co-lending between the Fund and the various RFAs. To date, the only operational guidance to facilitate collaboration has been limited to the high-level 2011 G20 Principles for Cooperation between the IMF and RFAs. Building on several case studies and the principles derived from them, this paper proposes an operational framework for future engagement. It aims to start a more structured dialogue between the Fund and individual RFAs on the modalities of how best to work together.
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Projections of demand for concessional loans under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) are subject to a high degree of uncertainty. The Fund's financial support to low-income countries (LICs) is both cyclical and lumpy. Moreover, there are important structural changes underway that are likely to affect the frequency, nature, and size of Fund concessional lending. As a result, simple extrapolations from historical lending volumes are misleading. This paper reviews factors underlying historical lending trends and develops a methodology that can narrow down the range of possible longer-term demand scenarios.
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In line with a framework introduced in 2012 for addressing excessive delays in the completion of Article IV consultations, this report lists the IMF members for which the Article IV consultation has been delayed by more than 18 months at end-May, 2017. The delay is counted past the stipulated date for the consultation plus any applicable grace period. There are no countries for which the mandatory financial stability assessments are delayed by more than 18 months at end-May, 2017.
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The global recovery continues. Although it is not yet complete, the more favorable conjunctureoffers an opportunity to tackle key policy challenges to stave off medium-term downside risks,rebuild buffers, and raise potential output. Countries should undertake well-sequenced reforms toincrease productivity, improve governance, and reduce policy uncertainty and future risks. Reformsshould also aim to harness the benefits of technology and economic integration and ensure thatthey are widely shared. Tackling challenges to the global economy continues to require cooperationand joint action across the membership. The Fund will assist members through tailored policyadvice and capacity development, and stands ready to provide financial assistance to supportadjustment programs.
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Exports --- Econometric models. --- Management.
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This status report reviews progress toward implementation of the 2010 Governance and Quota Reforms. It updates the status of consents to the proposed quota increases under the 14th General Review of Quotas and of acceptances of the Proposed Seventh Amendment on the Reform of the Executive Board ('Board Reform Amendment' or 'Seventh Amendment') as set out in the Board of Governors Resolution No. 66-2.
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This report presents a simple equilibrium model of the cocaine industry in Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia. The purpose of the model is to represent the fundamental economic relations that determine the size of cocaine output and the price of cocaine, and to simulate the effects of policy initiatives or other changes in the surrounding environment. Model results indicate that: "crop substitution" programs will have a negligible impact on the world cocaine market. Cocaine supply control strategies that seize and destroy 70 percent or less of production, without limiting the total level of production, will have little impact on the market. Changes in the size of the world cocaine market have a relatively modest long-run impact on the standard of living of average workers in Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia.
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The recovery remains fragile and uneven. In many advanced economies, activity is still sluggish and unemployment high, while legacy problems in the financial system remain unresolved. Activity is more robust in many emerging and developing economies. However, their prospects also depend on a healthy, broad-based recovery among the advanced economies, owing to deep real and financial linkages. The key policy challenge is to effect a smooth transition from public- to private-sector-led growth in many advanced economies, and from external to domestically driven growth in key emerging economies. While short-term macroeconomic policies are broadly appropriate, completing the two rebalancing acts will require tackling the medium-term fiscal, financial, and structural challenges raised by the crisis. Without such reforms, growth could sputter, with grave economic and social consequences.
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