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The administrative expenditure outturn for FY2015 reflects continued budget discipline, as new demands and initiatives were accommodated through reprioritization and better use of existing resources within an unchanged envelope. The overall budget utilization rate of 98 percent was achieved through more efficient personnel management practices and effective reallocation of resources from underutilized areas to areas of emerging pressure. In terms of outputs, the Fund continued its focus on addressing global policy challenges and reducing vulnerabilities. Resources allocated to multilateral surveillance, oversight of the global systems and capacity development increased while bilateral surveillance and lending declined moderately, in line with easing of crisis-related work. Spending by country reflects a continued shift towards a more risk-based approach, consistent with the established priorities. Capital expenditures mainly reflected the major renovation of the HQ1 building and improvements in information technology infrastructure and security to better support the staff's work and protect information assets.
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Nous traversons le ralentissement économique mondial le plus marqué depuis plus de six décennies. Comment est-il survenu ? Et comment rendre la reprise durable ? De la crise à la reprise retrace les causes, le déroulement et les conséquences de la « Grande Récession » : une accumulation rapide de liquidité, combinée à une réglementation défaillante, a entraîné une crise financière qui a rapidement gagné l’économie réelle, provoquant la destruction de nombreuses entreprises et un chômage sans précédent depuis des décennies. Si le pire de la crise semble à présent derrière nous, un retour rapide à une forte croissance paraît peu probable, et l’emploi ne retrouvera pas son niveau d’avant la crise avant plusieurs années. La dette publique et privée a atteint de tels niveaux que l’on peut s’attendre à une augmentation des compressions et de l’épargne, ce qui prolongera les effets de la crise dans les années à venir.
Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Economic policy --- Financial crises --- Bank loans --- Economics --- Sociological aspects --- Economics - Sociological aspects --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Financial crises. --- International liquidity. --- Banks and banking --- Budget deficits. --- State supervision.
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The paper presents a simple model for discussing the effects of deficit limits and budget rules on fiscal policy. I find that limits on deficit-output ratios provide incentives to implement procyclical policies when the economy is in intermediate states, and countercyclical policies only in very "good" and very "bad" economic times. As a result, fiscal "reaction functions" are not monotonically related to the state of the economy. Deficit limits are found to exert discipline only provided the limit is tight and the expected sanction large, albeit at a relatively large welfare cost. Moreover, when fiscal choices are made under a veil of ignorance about the output gap, an increase in volatility is likely to raise the level of the budget deficit. Finally, concerning the design of fiscal frameworks, when excessive deficits arise from a political bias, deficit limits should be symmetric and not state-contingent.
Budget deficits -- Econometric models. --- Economic stabilization -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Fiscal Policy --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Budgeting & financial management --- Public finance & taxation --- Budget planning and preparation --- Output gap --- Fiscal policy --- Government debt management --- Fiscal rules --- Budget --- Production --- Economic theory --- Debts, Public --- United Kingdom --- Budget deficits --- Economic stabilization --- Econometric models.
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The paper analyzes some key policy trade-offs involved in the implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact. Greater "procedural" flexibility in the Pact's implementation may improve welfare. Procedural flexibility designates the enforcer's room to apply judgment on underlying policies and to set a consolidation path that does not discourage high-quality measures. Budgetary opaqueness may hinder the qualitative assessment of fiscal policy; therefore, better monitoring and greater transparency would increase the benefits from procedural flexibility. Overall, a simple deficit rule with conditional procedural flexibility can contain excessive deficits, lower unproductive spending, and increase high-quality outlays.
Budget deficits -- European Union countries -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- European Union countries -- Econometric models. --- Monetary policy -- European Union countries -- Econometric models. --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- European Union countries -- Econometric models. --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- General Aggregative Models: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Structural reforms --- National accounts --- Fiscal policy --- Expenditure --- Fiscal governance --- National income --- Expenditures, Public --- Germany --- Monetary policy --- Budget deficits --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Econometric models.
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The real effective exchange rate of the dollar is close to its minimum level for the past 4decades (as of September 2008). At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and currentaccount deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, wouldcontribute to a further accumulation of U.S. external liabilities. The paper discusses thetension between these two aspects of the dollar assessment, and what factors can helpreconcile them. It focuses in particular on the terms of trade, adjustment lags, andmeasurement issues related to both the real effective exchange rate and the current accountbalance.
Foreign exchange rates --- Balance of payments --- Budget deficits --- Dollar, American. --- American dollar --- Money --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Real effective exchange rates --- Current account deficits --- Trade balance --- Current account balance --- External position --- Balance of trade --- International finance --- United States
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E-books --- Debts, Public --- Budget deficits --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Government policy --- Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009) --- Ireland --- Economic policy. --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009. --- Global Economic Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Subprime Mortgage Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial crises --- Deficits, Budget --- Budget --- Deficit financing --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Government policy. --- 2008-2009
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Countries have adopted various institutional responses to subnational government borrowing. Using a sample of 44 countries 1982-2000, this paper provides a panel data analysis to determine the most effective borrowing constraints for containing local fiscal deficits. The results suggest that no single institutional arrangement is superior under all circumstances. The appropriateness of specific arrangements depends upon other institutional characteristics, particularly the degree of vertical fiscal imbalance, the existence of any bailout precedent, and the quality of fiscal reporting.
Budget deficits. --- Debts, Public. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Intergovernmental fiscal relations. --- Subnational governments. --- Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal stabilization --- Expenditure --- Fiscal policy --- Budget planning and preparation --- Expenditures, Public --- Budget --- United States
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We show that cross-country differences in the underlying volatility and persistence of macroeconomic shocks help explain two historical regularities in sovereign borrowing: the existence of "vicious" circles of borrowing-and-default ("default traps"), as well as the fact that recalcitrant sovereigns typically face higher interest spreads on future loans rather than outright market exclusion. We do so in a simple model where output persistence is coupled with asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders about the borrower's output process, implying that a decision to default reveals valuable information to lenders about the borrower's future output path. Using a broad cross-country database spanning over a century, we provide econometric evidence corroborating the model's main predictions-namely, that countries with higher output persistence and conditional volatility of transient shocks face higher spreads and thus fall into default traps more easily, whereas higher volatility of permanent output tends to dampen these effects.
Exports and Imports --- Investments: Bonds --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Asset prices --- Debt default --- Bonds --- Output gap --- Sovereign bonds --- Prices --- Debts, External --- Production --- Economic theory --- United States --- Fiscal policy --- Budget deficits --- Finance, Public --- Econometric models.
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The rapid growth of the financial system presents a number of challenges to maintaining financial stability in Nepal. There has been a rapid growth of the banking sector over the last few years. State-owned institutions continue to dominate the banking system. Equity market capitalization has increased sharply while government debt markets remain underdeveloped. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, the financial performance of the banking system has improved. The rapid increase in credit growth in recent years suggests growing credit risk.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Banking --- Finance --- Commercial banks --- State-owned banks --- Stock markets --- Bank soundness --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Nonperforming loans --- Banks and banking --- Stock exchanges --- Loans --- Nepal --- Debts, Public --- Budget deficits
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This paper provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies. It finds that a one percent of GDP unanticipated increase in the government budget balance improves, on average, the current account balance by 0.8 percentage point of GDP. This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of fiscal impulse, such as the cyclically-adjusted budget balance. The results point to heterogeneity across countries and over time. The effect tends to be larger: (i) during recessions; in countries (ii) that are more open to trade; (iii) that have less flexible exchange rate regimes; and (iv) with lower initial public debt-to-GDP ratios.
Budget deficits. --- Deficits, Budget --- Budget --- Deficit financing --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Current account --- Expenditure --- Current account balance --- Fiscal consolidation --- Fiscal policy --- Balance of payments --- Expenditures, Public
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