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Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction

Forecasting --- Bayesian statistical decision theory --- Knowledge, Theory of --- Methodology --- History --- #SBIB:303H521 --- 551.509 --- Methoden sociale wetenschappen: waarschijnlijkheid --- Weather forecasting. Artificial influencing of weather --- Forecasting. --- Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Knowledge, Theory of. --- Methodology. --- History. --- 551.509 Weather forecasting. Artificial influencing of weather --- Epistemology --- Theory of knowledge --- Philosophy --- Psychology --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- AA / International- internationaal --- 331.061 --- 304.5 --- 305.6 --- 303.49 --- Economische vooruitzichten --- Techniek van de statistische-econometrische voorspellingen. Prognose in de econometrie --- Risicotheorie, speltheorie. Risicokapitaal. Beslissingsmodellen --- Forecasting - Methodology --- Forecasting - History

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Unit value export and import indices compiled from returns to customs authorities are often used as surrogates for price indices in the measurement of inflation transmission, terms of trade (effects), and to deflate import and export value series to derive volume series. Their widespread use is mainly due to their relatively low cost compared with establishment price surveys. This paper provides evidence of substantial bias in their representation of such price changes. Their continued use would mislead economic analysis. The paper considers the efficacy of alternative strategies for their improvement, and argues for a move to establishment-based price surveys.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Price indexes --- Exports --- Imports --- Import price indexes --- Terms of trade --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Germany

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The IMF’s main uses of the International Comparison Program’s (ICP) estimates of purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are as an element of the formula used to help guide decisions on its members’ quotas and in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). The paper outlines these uses and considers measurement issues particularly salient to IMF usage including: PPP imputations for member countries not participating in the ICP; PPP estimates for non-benchmark years; timeliness and periodicity of PPP estimates; economy groupings; and transparency. The paper was written as a chapter on ?IMF uses of PPPs? for the 2011 ICP Handbook.

Foreign exchange --- Purchasing power parity. --- Mathematical models. --- Law of one price --- One price, Law of --- Parity, Purchasing power --- Foreign Exchange --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Currency --- Public finance & taxation --- Purchasing power parity --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Market exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Expenditure --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Expenditures, Public --- United States

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The Consumer Price Index Manual (2004) provides guidelines for aggregation formulas that are promulgated at IMF training courses and technical assistance missions. This paper develops elementary level aggregation theory to better inform users and compilers. Most countries use either the Dutot or Jevons index formula. These formulas generally give different results; advice on choice of formula matters. Using an approach based on sample estimators, and an illustration based on scanner data, the paper shows how differences in these formulas can be explained by changes in price dispersion and, in turn, by product heterogeneity. Implications for choice of formula are considered.

Consumer price indexes. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Price indexes. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Price indices --- Consumer price index --- Cost of living indexes --- CPIs (Consumer price indexes) --- Retail price indexes --- Index numbers (Economics) --- Cost and standard of living --- Price indexes --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demography --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Demographic Economics: General --- Labor Economics: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Population & demography --- Labour --- income economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Consumer price indexes --- Population and demographics --- Labor --- Expenditure --- Population --- Labor economics --- Expenditures, Public --- United Kingdom

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The 2005 International Comparison Program's (ICP) estimates of economy-wide purchasing power parity (PPP) are based on parity estimates for 155 basic expenditure headings, mainly estimated using country product dummy (CPD) regressions. The estimates are potentially inefficient and open to omitted variable bias for two reasons. First, they use average prices across outlets as the left-hand-side variable. Second, quality-adjusted prices of non-comparable replacements, required when products in outlets do not match the required specifications, cannot be effectively included. This paper provides an analytical framework based on panel data and hedonic CPD regressions for ameliorating these sources of bias and inefficiency.

Purchasing power parity. --- Purchasing power. --- Current purchasing power --- Law of one price --- One price, Law of --- Parity, Purchasing power --- Consumption (Economics) --- Currency question --- Money --- Prices --- Cost and standard of living --- Income --- Money illusion --- Foreign exchange --- Investments: Metals --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Labor Economics: General --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Currency --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Purchasing power parity --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Labor --- Silver --- Price adjustments --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Labor economics --- United States