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Economics --- Research --- National Bureau of Economic Research --- National Bureau of Economic Research. --- National Bureau of Economic Research (U.S.)

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The use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator is demonstrated, using Sweden 1992-1994 as an example. The forward rates are interpreted as indicating market expectations of the time-path of future interest rates, future inflation rates, and future currency depreciation rates. They separate market expectations for the short-, medium-, and long-term more easily than the standard yield curve. Forward rates are estimated with an extended and more flexible version of Nelson and Siegel’s functional form.

General --- Monetary Policy --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Investments: Futures --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Investment & securities --- Futures --- Bonds --- Yield curve --- Return on investment --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Financial services --- National accounts --- Derivative securities --- Interest rates --- Saving and investment --- Sweden

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The sizable hoarding of international reserves by several East Asian countries has been frequently attributed to a modern version of monetary mercantilism-hoarding international reserves in order to improve competitiveness. From a long-run perspective, manufacturing exporters in East Asia adopted financial mercantilism-subsidizing the cost of capital- during decades of high growth. They switched to hoarding large international reserves when growth faltered, making it harder to disentangle the monetary mercantilism from a precautionary response to the heritage of past financial mercantilism. Monetary mercantilism also lowers the cost of hoarding through its short-term boost to external competitiveness, but may be associated with negative externalities leading to competitive hoarding.

Balance of trade -- East Asia. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Mercantile system -- East Asia -- Mathematical models. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Mercantile system --- Balance of trade --- Mathematical models. --- Deficits, Trade --- Trade, Balance of --- Trade balance --- Trade deficits --- Trade surpluses --- Surpluses, Trade --- Cameralism --- Kameralism --- Mercantilism (Mercantile system) --- International trade --- Balance of payments --- Payment --- Economic policy --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Policy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Financial Crises --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International reserves --- Financial sector --- Reserves accumulation --- Financial crises --- Real exchange rates --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Financial services industry --- Japan

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Economics --- Environmental policy --- Energy policy --- Environmental economics. --- Environmental quality --- Energy and state --- Power resources --- State and energy --- Industrial policy --- Energy conservation --- Economic aspects --- Economic aspects. --- Environmental aspects --- Government policy --- United States. --- AB --- ABSh --- Ameerika Ühendriigid --- America (Republic) --- Amerika Birlăshmish Shtatlary --- Amerika Birlăşmi Ştatları --- Amerika Birlăşmiş Ştatları --- Amerika ka Kelenyalen Jamanaw --- Amerika Qūrama Shtattary --- Amerika Qŭshma Shtatlari --- Amerika Qushma Shtattary --- Amerika (Republic) --- Amerikai Egyesült Államok --- Amerikanʹ Veĭtʹsėndi͡avks Shtattn --- Amerikări Pĕrleshu̇llĕ Shtatsem --- Amerikas Forenede Stater --- Amerikayi Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Ameriketako Estatu Batuak --- Amirika Carékat --- AQSh --- Ar. ha-B. --- Arhab --- Artsot ha-Berit --- Artzois Ha'bris --- Bí-kok --- Ē.P.A. --- EE.UU. --- Egyesült Államok --- ĒPA --- Estados Unidos --- Estados Unidos da América do Norte --- Estados Unidos de América --- Estaos Xuníos --- Estaos Xuníos d'América --- Estatos Unitos --- Estatos Unitos d'America --- Estats Units d'Amèrica --- Ètats-Unis d'Amèrica --- États-Unis d'Amérique --- Fareyniḳṭe Shṭaṭn --- Feriene Steaten --- Feriene Steaten fan Amearika --- Forente stater --- FS --- Hēnomenai Politeiai Amerikēs --- Hēnōmenes Politeies tēs Amerikēs --- Hiwsisayin Amerikayi Miatsʻeal Tērutʻiwnkʻ --- Istadus Unidus --- Jungtinės Amerikos valstybės --- Mei guo --- Mei-kuo --- Meiguo --- Mî-koet --- Miatsʻyal Nahangner --- Miguk --- Na Stàitean Aonaichte --- NSA --- S.U.A. --- SAD --- Saharat ʻAmērik --- SASht --- Severo-Amerikanskie Shtaty --- Severo-Amerikanskie Soedinennye Shtaty --- Si͡evero-Amerikanskīe Soedinennye Shtaty --- Sjedinjene Američke Države --- Soedinennye Shtaty Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Severnoĭ Ameriki --- Soedinennye Shtaty Si͡evernoĭ Ameriki --- Spojené staty americk --- SShA --- Stadoù-Unanet Amerika --- Stáit Aontaithe Mheirice --- Stany Zjednoczone --- Stati Uniti --- Stati Uniti d'America --- Stâts Unîts --- Stâts Unîts di Americhe --- Steatyn Unnaneysit --- Steatyn Unnaneysit America --- SUA --- Sŭedineni amerikanski shtati --- Sŭedinenite shtati --- Tetã peteĩ reko Amérikagua --- U.S. --- U.S.A. --- United States of America --- Unol Daleithiau --- Unol Daleithiau America --- Unuiĝintaj Ŝtatoj de Ameriko --- US --- USA --- Usono --- Vaeinigte Staatn --- Vaeinigte Staatn vo Amerika --- Vereinigte Staaten --- Vereinigte Staaten von Amerika --- Verenigde State van Amerika --- Verenigde Staten --- VS --- VSA --- Wááshindoon Bikéyah Ałhidadiidzooígí --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amirīkīyah --- Wilāyāt al-Muttaḥidah al-Amrīkīyah --- Yhdysvallat --- Yunaeted Stet --- Yunaeted Stet blong Amerika --- ZDA --- Združene države Amerike --- Zʹi͡ednani Derz͡havy Ameryky --- Zjadnośone staty Ameriki --- Zluchanyi͡a Shtaty Ameryki --- Zlucheni Derz͡havy --- ZSA --- Ecosocialism --- Spojené obce severoamerick --- Environmental economics --- Energy policy. --- Law and legislation --- Political aspects --- ABŞ --- Amerikanʹ Veĭtʹsėndi͡avks Shtattnė --- É.-U. --- ÉU --- Saharat ʻAmērikā --- Spojené obce severoamerické --- Spojené staty americké --- Stáit Aontaithe Mheiriceá --- Wááshindoon Bikéyah Ałhidadiidzooígíí

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News - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized information flows. Different methods for extracting or hypothesizing the information flows are discussed and shown to be alternative techniques for resolving a non-uniqueness problem endemic to moving average representations.

Taxation. --- Fiscal policy. --- Information theory in economics. --- Economic cybernetics --- Econometrics --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Duties --- Fee system (Taxation) --- Tax reform --- Taxation, Incidence of --- Taxes --- Revenue --- Government policy --- Investments: Bonds --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- Tax Law --- Investment & securities --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public finance & taxation --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation & duties law --- Municipal bonds --- Vector autoregression --- Expenditure --- Labor taxes --- Fiscal policy --- Financial institutions --- Econometric analysis --- Tax law --- Bonds --- Expenditures, Public --- Income tax --- Law and legislation --- United States