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Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or “nowcast”) low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series.

Information storage and retrieval systems. --- National income --- Economic indicators --- Econometric models. --- Business indicators --- Indicators, Business --- Indicators, Economic --- Leading indicators --- Economic history --- Quality of life --- Economic forecasting --- Index numbers (Economics) --- Social indicators --- Net national product --- Flow of funds --- Gross national product --- Income --- Automatic data storage --- Automatic information retrieval --- Automation in documentation --- Computer-based information systems --- Data processing systems --- Data storage and retrieval systems --- Discovery systems, Information --- Information discovery systems --- Information processing systems --- Information retrieval systems --- Machine data storage and retrieval --- Mechanized information storage and retrieval systems --- Computer systems --- Electronic information resources --- Data centers --- Digital libraries --- Information organization --- Information retrieval --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Optimization Techniques --- Programming Models --- Dynamic Analysis --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Trade: General --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- International economics --- National accounts --- Exports --- Imports --- Trade in goods --- International trade --- Balance of trade --- Morocco --- E-Commerce

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Vessel traffic data based on the Automatic Identification System (AIS) is a big data source for nowcasting trade activity in real time. Using Malta as a benchmark, we develop indicators of trade and maritime activity based on AIS-based port calls. We test the quality of these indicators by comparing them with official statistics on trade and maritime statistics. If the challenges associated with port call data are overcome through appropriate filtering techniques, we show that these emerging “big data” on vessel traffic could allow statistical agencies to complement existing data sources on trade and introduce new statistics that are more timely (real time), offering an innovative way to measure trade activity. That, in turn, could facilitate faster detection of turning points in economic activity. The approach could be extended to create a real-time worldwide indicator of global trade activity.

Exports and Imports --- Information Management --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- Retail and Wholesale Trade --- e-Commerce --- Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis --- International economics --- Data capture & analysis --- Trade balance --- Trade in goods --- Imports --- Big data --- Exports --- International trade --- Technology --- Balance of trade --- Malta --- E-Commerce

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Statistical offices have often recourse to benchmarking methods for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA). Benchmarking methods employ quarterly indicator series (i) to distribute annual, more reliable series of national accounts and (ii) to extrapolate the most recent quarters not yet covered by annual benchmarks. The Proportional First Differences (PFD) benchmarking method proposed by Denton (1971) is a widely used solution for distribution, but in extrapolation it may suffer when the movements in the indicator series do not match consistently the movements in the target annual benchmarks. For this reason, an enhanced formula for extrapolation was recommended by the IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (2001). We discuss the rationale behind this technique, and propose a matrix formulation of it. In addition, we present applications of the enhanced formula to artificial and real-life benchmarking examples showing how the extrapolations for the most recent quarters can be improved.

Management --- Business & Economics --- Management Styles & Communication --- Benchmarking (Management) --- Managerial accounting. --- Management accounting --- Benchmarks (Management) --- Accounting --- Total quality management --- Managerial accounting --- National income --- Statistical methods --- E-books --- Net national product --- Flow of funds --- Gross national product --- Income --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Optimization Techniques --- Programming Models --- Dynamic Analysis --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Manufacturing industries --- National accounts --- Manufacturing --- Industrial production --- Industries --- Korea, Republic of

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To derive real GDP, the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) recommends a technique called double deflation. Some countries use single deflation techniques, which fail to capture important relative price changes and introduce estimation errors in official GDP growth. We simulate the effects of single deflation to the GDP data of eight countries that use double deflation. We find that errors due to single deflation can be significant, but their magnitude and direction are not systematic over time and across countries. We conclude that countries still using single deflation should move to double deflation.

Gross domestic product --- Deflation (Finance) --- Econometric models. --- Disinflation --- Finance --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Commodity Markets --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodity prices --- Consumption --- Deflation --- Economics --- Environment and Growth --- Environmental Accounts --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- National accounts --- National income --- Price indexes --- Price Level --- Prices --- Saving --- Wealth --- Japan