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The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.

Economic stabilization --- Inflation (Finance) --- Foreign exchange rates --- Monetary policy --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Adjustment, Economic --- Business stabilization --- Economic adjustment --- Stabilization, Economic --- Econometric models. --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: National Income, Product, and Expenditure --- Money --- Demand for Money --- International Financial Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Demand for money --- Currency markets --- Prices --- Financial markets --- Foreign exchange market --- Georgia

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The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.

Business cycles -- China -- Econometric models. --- China -- Economic policy. --- Economic development -- China -- Econometric models. --- Economic History --- Business & Economics --- Production and Operations Management --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics --- Output gap --- Total factor productivity --- Potential output --- Productivity --- Capacity utilization --- Economic theory --- Industrial productivity --- Industrial capacity --- China, People's Republic of

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China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

Business cycles --- China --- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Business Cycles --- Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Commodity Markets --- Trade: General --- Externalities --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Public investment spending --- Commodity prices --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Exports --- Spillovers --- Expenditure --- Prices --- International trade --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Public investments --- Public-private sector cooperation --- International finance --- China, People's Republic of

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Corporate credit growth in China has been excessive in recent years. This credit boom is related to the large increase in investment after the Global Financial Crisis. Investment efficiency has fallen and the financial performance of corporates has deteriorated steadily, affecting asset quality in financial institutions. The corporate debt problem should be addressed urgently with a comprehensive strategy. Key elements should include identifying companies in financial difficulties, proactively recognizing losses in the financial system, burden sharing, corporate restructuring and governance reform, hardening budget constraints, and facilitating market entry. A proactive strategy would trade off short-term economic pain for larger longer-term gain.

Corporate debt --- Credit --- Financial risk management --- E-books --- Risk management --- Corporations --- Debt --- Debt financing (Corporations) --- Finance --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Budgeting --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change --- Industrial Price Indices --- Corporation and Securities Law --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Bankruptcy --- Liquidation --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Budgeting & financial management --- Loans --- Solvency --- Credit booms --- Money --- Financial institutions --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Government liabilities --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Banks and banking --- Budget --- China, People's Republic of

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When policymakers have little option but to consider a sizable fiscal adjustment, they are confronted by the following questions: Can a large fiscal adjustment be implemented succesfully? How is a large adjustment best designed and implemented? What will be its impact on the economy? This Occasional Paper addresses these questions by describing the experience of countries that have undertaken large fiscal adjustments in the last three decades. It provides operational guidance to policymakers by identifying preconditions, common policy approaches, and institutional arrangements underlying successful and unsuccessful adjustment episodes.

Fiscal policy. --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Economic policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Budgeting --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Public finance & taxation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Budgeting & financial management --- Fiscal consolidation --- Expenditure --- Fiscal stance --- Public debt --- Revenue administration --- Fiscal policy --- Expenditures, Public --- Debts, Public --- Revenue --- Finance --- South Africa