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Economic development --- Growth models (Economics) --- Mathematical models. --- Business cycles --- Finance --- Investments --- Mathematical models --- E-books

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Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

Growth models (Economics) --- Economic development --- Business cycles --- Demography --- Population --- Mathematical models. --- Mathematical models --- E-books --- Démographie --- Cycles économiques --- Développement économique --- Modèles mathématiques

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Optimal growth theory studies the problem of efficient resource allocation over time, a fundamental concern of economic research. Since the 1970s, the techniques of nonlinear dynamical systems have become a vital tool in optimal growth theory, illuminating dynamics and demonstrating the possibility of endogenous economic fluctuations. Kazuo Nishimura's seminal contributions on business cycles, chaotic equilibria and indeterminacy have been central to this development, transforming our understanding of economic growth, cycles, and the relationship between them. The subjects of Kazuo's analysis remain of fundamental importance to modern economic theory. This book collects his major contributions in a single volume. Kazuo Nishimura has been recognized for his contributions to economic theory on many occasions, being elected fellow of the Econometric Society and serving as an editor of several major journals. Chapter “Introduction” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

Economic development -- Econometric models. --- Economics. --- Economics -- Mathematical models. --- Endogenous growth (Economics). --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- International trade --- Economic development --- Mathematical models. --- Econometric models. --- Growth models (Economics) --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- Economic growth. --- Economic Growth. --- DGE (Economics) --- DSGE (Economics) --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (Economics) --- SDGE (Economic theory) --- Economics, Mathematical --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Development economics --- Resource curse

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New Tools of Economic Dynamics gives an introduction and overview of recently developed methods and tools, most of them developed outside economics, to deal with the qualitative analysis of economic dynamics. It reports the results of a three-year research project by a European and Latin American network on the intersection of economics with mathematical, statistical, and computational methods and techniques. Focusing upon the evolution and manifold structure of complex dynamic phenomena, the book reviews and shows applications of a variety of tools, such as symbolic and coded dynamics, interacting agents models, microsimulation in econometrics, large-scale system analysis, and dynamical systems theory. It shows the potential of a comprehensive analysis of growth, fluctuations, and structural change along the lines indicated by pioneers like Harrod, Haavelmo, Hicks, Goodwin, Morishima, and it highlights the explanatory power of the qualitative approach they initiated.

Economics --- Economic development --- Econometrics. --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Mathematical models. --- Economics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Dynamics and statics (Social sciences) --- Equilibrium (Social sciences) --- Social evolution --- Social sciences --- Sociology --- Growth models (Economics) --- Economic theory. --- Artificial intelligence. --- Mathematics. --- Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods. --- Artificial Intelligence. --- Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences. --- AI (Artificial intelligence) --- Artificial thinking --- Electronic brains --- Intellectronics --- Intelligence, Artificial --- Intelligent machines --- Machine intelligence --- Thinking, Artificial --- Bionics --- Cognitive science --- Digital computer simulation --- Electronic data processing --- Logic machines --- Machine theory --- Self-organizing systems --- Simulation methods --- Fifth generation computers --- Neural computers --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Economic man --- Math --- Science --- Game theory. --- Games, Theory of --- Theory of games --- Mathematical models --- Mathematics

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Natural resource revenues provide a valuable source to finance public investment in developing countries, which frequently face borrowing constraints and tax revenue mobilization problems. This paper develops a dynamic stochastic small open economy model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of investing natural resource revenues, making explicit the role of pervasive features in these countries including public investment inefficiency, absorptive capacity constraints, Dutch disease, and financing needs to sustain capital. Revenue exhaustibility raises medium-term issues of how to sustain capital built during a windfall, while revenue volatility raises short-term concerns about macroeconomic instability. Using the model, country applications show how combining public investment with a resource fund---a sustainable investing approach---can help address the macroeconomic problems associated with both exhaustibility and volatility. The applications also demonstrate how the model can be used to determine the appropriate magnitude of the investment scaling-up (accounting for the financing needs to sustain capital) and the adequate size of a stabilization fund (buffer).

Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Public investments --- Natural resources --- Finance --- Econometric models. --- Government investments --- Investments, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments --- Capital budget --- Economic development projects --- Investment of public funds --- Finance&delete& --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Public investment spending --- Consumption taxes --- Consumption --- Private consumption --- Expenditure --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Economics --- Spendings tax --- Angola