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This book includes the lectures given during the third session of the School of Statistics for Astrophysics that took place at Autrans, near Grenoble, in France, in October 2017. The subject is Bayesian Methodology. The interest of this statistical approach in astrophysics probably comes from its necessity and its success in determining the cosmological parameters from observations, especially from the cosmic background luctuations. The cosmological community has thus been very active in this field for many years. But the Bayesian methodology, complementary to the more classical frequentist one, has many applications in physics in general due to its ability to incorporate a priori knowledge into inference, such as uncertainty brought by the observational processes. The Bayesian approach becomes more and more widespread in the astrophysical literature. This book contains statistics courses on basic to advanced methods with practical exercises using the R environment, by leading experts in their field. This covers the foundations of Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, model building, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Bayesian nonparametric inference and clustering.
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision
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Statistical theory is primarily a product of the twentieth century. The prevailing school of thought builds on the frequentist philosophy developed by R.A. Fisher, the eminent biological theorist and experimentalist. Fisher's philosophy has been so thoroughly embraced that it has been labeled the ""classical"" approach, even though the alternative Bayesian philosophy antedates it by more than a century. Frequentist thinking has prevailed over Bayesian primarily because of the practical difficulty of fitting all but the simplest Bayesian models. Wildlife statistics has been almost entirely cond
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Ecology --- Mathematical models. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision
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Flexible Bayesian Regression Modeling is a step-by-step guide to the Bayesian revolution in regression modeling, for use in advanced econometric and statistical analysis where datasets are characterized by complexity, multiplicity, and large sample sizes, necessitating the need for considerable flexibility in modeling techniques. It reviews three forms of flexibility: methods which provide flexibility in their error distribution; methods which model non-central parts of the distribution (such as quantile regression); and finally models that allow the mean function to be flexible (such as spline models). Each chapter discusses the key aspects of fitting a regression model. R programs accompany the methods. This book is particularly relevant to non-specialist practitioners with intermediate mathematical training seeking to apply Bayesian approaches in economics, biology, finance, engineering and medicine.--
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Regression analysis --- Mathematical models. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision
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Bayesian Belief Networks are a powerful tool for combining different knowledge sources with various degrees of uncertainty in a mathematically sound and computationally efficient way. A Bayesian network is a graphical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. When used in conjunction with statistical techniques, the graphical model has several advantages for data modeling. First, because the model encodes dependencies among all variables, it readily handles situations where some data entries are missing. Second, a Bayesian network can be used to learn causal relationships, and hence can be used to gain an understanding about a problem domain and to predict the consequences of intervention. Third, because the model has both causal and probabilistic semantics, it is an ideal representation for combining prior knowledge (which often comes in a causal form) and data. Fourth, Bayesian statistical methods in conjunction with Bayesian networks offer an efficient and principled approach to avoid the over fitting of data.
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Probability & statistics
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Bayesian analysis has developed rapidly in applications in the last two decades and research in Bayesian methods remains dynamic and fast-growing. Dramatic advances in modelling concepts and computational technologies now enable routine application of Bayesian analysis using increasingly realistic stochastic models, and this drives the adoption of Bayesian approaches in many areas of science, technology, commerce, and industry.This Handbook explores contemporary Bayesian analysis across a variety of application areas. Chapters written by leading exponents of applied Bayesian analysis showcase
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"Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time"--
Bayesian statistical decision theory --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- History. --- Mathematical statistics --- Bayes, Thomas
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This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field.
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Mathematics. --- Math --- Science --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision
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"In recent years cosmologists have advanced from largely qualitative models of the Universe to precision modelling using Bayesian methods, in order to determine the properties of the Universe to high accuracy. This timely book is the only comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian methods in cosmological studies, and is an essential reference for graduate students and researchers in cosmology, astrophysics and applied statistics. The first part of the book focuses on methodology, setting the basic foundations and giving a detailed description of techniques. It covers topics including the estimation of parameters, Bayesian model comparison, and separation of signals. The second part explores a diverse range of applications, from the detection of astronomical sources (including through gravitational waves), to cosmic microwave background analysis and the quantification and classification of galaxy properties. Contributions from 24 highly regarded cosmologists and statisticians make this an authoritative guide to the subject"--Provided by publisher. "The first part of the book focuses on methodology, setting the basic foundations and giving a detailed description of techniques. It covers topics including the estimation of parameters, Bayesian model comparison, and separation of signals. The second part explores a diverse range of applications, from the detection of astronomical sources (including through gravitational waves), to cosmic microwave background analysis and the quantification and classification of galaxy properties. Contributions from 24 highly regarded cosmologists and statisticians make this an authoritative guide to the subject"--Provided by publisher.
Cosmology --- Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Astronomy --- Deism --- Metaphysics --- Statistical methods.
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When making decisions, people naturally face uncertainty about the potential consequences of their actions due in part to limits in their capacity to represent, evaluate or deliberate. Nonetheless, they aim to make the best decisions possible. In Decision Theory with a Human Face, Richard Bradley develops new theories of agency and rational decision-making, offering guidance on how 'real' agents who are aware of their bounds should represent the uncertainty they face, how they should revise their opinions as a result of experience and how they should make decisions when lacking full awareness of, or precise opinions on relevant contingencies. He engages with the strengths and flaws of Bayesian reasoning, and presents clear and comprehensive explorations of key issues in decision theory, from belief and desire to semantics and learning. His book draws on philosophy, economics, decision science and psychology, and will appeal to readers in all of these disciplines.
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Decision making --- Uncertainty --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Mathematical models.
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The range of Bayesian inference algorithms and their different applications has been greatly expanded since the first implementation of a Kalman filter by Stanley F. Schmidt for the Apollo program. Extended Kalman filters or particle filters are just some examples of these algorithms that have been extensively applied to logistics, medical services, search and rescue operations, or automotive safety, among others. This book takes a look at both theoretical foundations of Bayesian inference and practical implementations in different fields. It is intended as an introductory guide for the application of Bayesian inference in the fields of life sciences, engineering, and economics, as well as a source document of fundamentals for intermediate Bayesian readers.
Bayesian statistical decision theory. --- Bayes' solution --- Bayesian analysis --- Statistical decision --- Physical Sciences --- Engineering and Technology --- Mathematics --- Statistics --- Probability Distribution
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