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The Impact of Natural Resource Discoveries in Latin America and the Caribbean : A Closer Look at the Case of Bolivia
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ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475579748 9781475579741 1475577575 9781475577570 1475579721 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper studies the impact of natural resource extraction in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) from a number of angles. First, we exploit a novel dataset on the universe of giant oil and gas discoveries in the region to trace out the cyclical response of macroeconomic variables to discoveries over the short- and medium-run. Second, we use non-stationary panel data techniques to look at the long-run (trend) relationship between GDP per capita and the value of oil and gas production—our results imply that the recent fall in prices could depress GDP per capita by several percentage points. Last, we use Bolivia, which discovered huge gas reserves in the late 1990s, as a case study to apply the cross-country results and to study the impact of discoveries at the subnational level.


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Structural Reforms, IMF Programs and Capacity Building : An Empirical Investigation
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ISBN: 1475511566 1475510705 1475511558 147551154X 9781475511567 9781475511543 9781475510706 9781475511550 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/232 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper investigates the role that International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs and capacity building play in fostering structural reforms. To do so, we exploit two novel datasets on IMF capacity building and structural reforms available for over one hundred IMF member countries over the period 1980 - 2010. The main results are threefold. First, there is a general association between IMF programs and structural reforms but this relationship is not very robust. Second, IMF training leads to an increase in structural reforms but only through IMF programs and only when a significant share of public servants is trained. Third, IMF technical assistance does not significantly lead to more structural reforms but raises the likelihood of completion of ongoing IMF programs. Our results are robust to a large number of checks, estimators and correcting for endogeneity.

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