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Testing Piketty’s Hypothesis on the Drivers of Income Inequality : Evidence from Panel VARs with Heterogeneous Dynamics
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ISBN: 1475527764 9781475523249 1475523246 9781475527766 1475527691 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century puts forth a logically consistent explanation for changes in income and wealth inequality patterns. However, while rich in data, the book provides no formal empirical testing for its theoretical causal chain. In this paper, I build a set of Panel SVAR models to check if inequality and capital share in the national income move up as the r-g gap grows. Using a sample of 19 advanced economies spanning over 30 years, I find no empirical evidence that dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests. Results are robust to several alternative estimates of r-g.


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Consumption in Brazil : Where to Next?
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ISSN: 10185941 ISBN: 1475590067 9781475590067 147558962X 9781475589627 1475590024 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Private consumption has been a key driver of growth in Brazil for more than a decade. Over this time, Brazilian consumers have benefited from a favorable policy environment, a rapid phase of development—dramatically increasing economic, financial and social inclusion— and a supportive external environment. Meanwhile, infrastructure gaps have widened and investment and productivity levels have fallen behind. The consumption-led growth model now appears to have run its course. The prospect of a period of macroeconomic adjustment presents an opportunity to adjust policy settings to ensure stronger, more balanced and sustainable growth over the medium term.


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Filling the Gap : Infrastructure Investment in Brazil
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ISBN: 1513563742 1513535374 1513537792 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Infrastructure bottlenecks have been identified as a key obstacle to growth affecting productivity and market efficiency, and hindering domestic integration and export performance. This paper assesses the state of Brazil’s infrastructure, in light of past investment trends and various quality and quantity indicators. Brazil’s infrastructure stock and its quality rank low in relation to that of comparator countries, chosen amongst main export competitors. We provide evidence that infrastructure affects domestic integration by analyzing price convergence of tradable goods across major cities. The government’s concession program will narrow part of the infrastructure gap, however, governance reforms will be crucial to improving investment efficiency.


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Spillovers from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Brazil and Mexico’s Sovereign Bond Yields
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 1475586736 9781475586732 1475586701 1475586078 9781475586077 Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the transmission of changes in the U.S. monetary policy to localcurrency sovereign bond yields of Brazil and Mexico. Using vector error-correction models, we find that the U.S. 10-year bond yield was a key driver of long-term yields in these countries, and that Brazilian yields were more sensitive to U.S. shocks than Mexican yields during 2010–13. Remarkably, the propagation of shocks from U.S. long-term yields was amplified by changes in the policy rate in Brazil, but not in Mexico. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that yields in both countries temporarily overshot the values predicted by the model in the aftermath of the Fed’s “tapering” announcement in May 2013. This study suggests that emerging markets will need to contend with potential spillovers from shifts in monetary policy expectations in the U.S., which often lead to higher government bond interest rates and bouts of volatility.

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