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Thomas Piketty's Capital in the Twenty-First Century puts forth a logically consistent explanation for changes in income and wealth inequality patterns. However, while rich in data, the book provides no formal empirical testing for its theoretical causal chain. In this paper, I build a set of Panel SVAR models to check if inequality and capital share in the national income move up as the r-g gap grows. Using a sample of 19 advanced economies spanning over 30 years, I find no empirical evidence that dynamics move in the way Piketty suggests. Results are robust to several alternative estimates of r-g.
Income distribution. --- Capital movements. --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Distribution of income --- Income inequality --- Inequality of income --- Distribution (Economic theory) --- Disposable income --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Capital income --- Environmental Accounts --- Hypothesis Testing --- Income distribution --- Income --- Institutions and Growth --- Macroeconomics --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- National accounts --- National income --- Personal income --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Working capital --- United States
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Private consumption has been a key driver of growth in Brazil for more than a decade. Over this time, Brazilian consumers have benefited from a favorable policy environment, a rapid phase of development—dramatically increasing economic, financial and social inclusion— and a supportive external environment. Meanwhile, infrastructure gaps have widened and investment and productivity levels have fallen behind. The consumption-led growth model now appears to have run its course. The prospect of a period of macroeconomic adjustment presents an opportunity to adjust policy settings to ensure stronger, more balanced and sustainable growth over the medium term.
Consumption (Economics) --- Consumer demand --- Consumer spending --- Consumerism --- Spending, Consumer --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Finance --- Consumption --- Disposable income --- Income --- Real interest rates --- Private consumption --- National accounts --- Financial services --- Economics --- National income --- Interest rates --- Brazil
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Infrastructure bottlenecks have been identified as a key obstacle to growth affecting productivity and market efficiency, and hindering domestic integration and export performance. This paper assesses the state of Brazil’s infrastructure, in light of past investment trends and various quality and quantity indicators. Brazil’s infrastructure stock and its quality rank low in relation to that of comparator countries, chosen amongst main export competitors. We provide evidence that infrastructure affects domestic integration by analyzing price convergence of tradable goods across major cities. The government’s concession program will narrow part of the infrastructure gap, however, governance reforms will be crucial to improving investment efficiency.
Infrastructure (Economics) --- Transportation --- Public investments --- Government investments --- Investments, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments --- Capital budget --- Economic development projects --- Investment of public funds --- Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Infrastructure --- Investments: General --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Economic History: Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities: General --- Trade: General --- Macroeconomics --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Private investment --- Public investment spending --- Exports --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- International trade --- Saving and investment --- Brazil
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This paper examines the transmission of changes in the U.S. monetary policy to localcurrency sovereign bond yields of Brazil and Mexico. Using vector error-correction models, we find that the U.S. 10-year bond yield was a key driver of long-term yields in these countries, and that Brazilian yields were more sensitive to U.S. shocks than Mexican yields during 2010–13. Remarkably, the propagation of shocks from U.S. long-term yields was amplified by changes in the policy rate in Brazil, but not in Mexico. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that yields in both countries temporarily overshot the values predicted by the model in the aftermath of the Fed’s “tapering” announcement in May 2013. This study suggests that emerging markets will need to contend with potential spillovers from shifts in monetary policy expectations in the U.S., which often lead to higher government bond interest rates and bouts of volatility.
Monetary policy --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models --- Multiple Variables: General --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Yield curve --- Sovereign bonds --- Central bank policy rate --- Securities markets --- Vector error correction models --- Bond yields --- Financial institutions --- Financial services --- Financial markets --- Interest rates --- Bonds --- Capital market --- Econometric models --- United States
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