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Estimating how the macroeconomy works
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ISBN: 0674015460 0674036638 9780674036635 9780674015463 Year: 2004 Publisher: Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press,

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Abstract

Macroeconomics tries to describe and explain the economywide movement of prices, output, and unemployment. The field has been sharply divided among various schools, including Keynesian, monetarist, new classical, and others. It has also been split between theorists and empiricists. Ray Fair is a resolute empiricist, developing and refining methods for testing theories and models. The field cannot advance without the discipline of testing how well the models approximate the data. Using a multicountry econometric model, he examines several important questions, including what causes inflation, how monetary authorities behave and what are their stabilization limits, how large is the wealth effect on aggregate consumption, whether European monetary policy has been too restrictive, and how large are the stabilization costs to Europe of adopting the euro. He finds, among other things, little evidence for the rational expectations hypothesis and for the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) hypothesis. He also shows that the U.S. economy in the last half of the 1990s was not a "new age" economy.


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Predicting presidential elections and other things
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ISBN: 0804778027 0804760497 9780804778022 9780804760492 9780804760492 Year: 2012 Publisher: Stanford, Calif. : Stanford Economics and Finance,

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""It's the economy, stupid,"" as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape-but Fair doesn't stop there.Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well-including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior

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