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The consequences of globalization for the world's poor are uncertain and fierce rhetoric is dividing its supporters and detractors.The channels of effect of essentially macroeconomic shocks on the microeconomic position of individuals and households in poor countries are many and various. This book addresses three core issues: 1) what are the main channels of effect? 2) what are the lessons to be learned from policy measures to alleviate negative poverty consequences? and 3) do the proposed analytical approaches assist in providing a monitoring capability?
Social policy --- Foreign trade. International trade --- Third World: economic development problems --- Developing countries --- Developing countries: economic development problems --- Free trade --- Globalization --- Poverty --- Poor --- Economic aspects --- trade --- liberalisation --- computable --- general --- equilibrium --- social --- accounting --- matrix --- shocks --- reforms
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United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the
Monetary policy --- Globalization --- International finance --- globalization, monetary policy, trading costs, trade, international, finance, national economy, capital markets, integration, domestic shocks, currency, price, stability, nonfiction, economics, competition, inflation, liquidity, oil, macroeconomics, market imperfections, emerging economies, government, regulation, intervention.
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This paper analyzes food inflation trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2016 using two novel datasets of disaggregated CPI baskets. Average food inflation is higher, more volatile, and similarly persistent as non-food non-fuel (NF/NF) inflation, especially in low-income countries (LICs) in SSA. We find evidence that food inflation became less persistent from 2009 onwards, related to recent improvements in monetary policy frameworks. We also find that high food prices are driven mainly by non-tradable food in SSA and there is incomplete pass-through from world food and fuel prices and exchange rates to domestic food prices. Taken together, these finding suggest that central banks in low-income countries with high and persistent food inflation should continue to pay attention to headline inflation to anchor inflation expectations. Other policy levers include reducing tariffs and improving storage and transport infrastructure to reduce food pressures.
Food prices --- Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Food --- Agricultural prices --- Food industry and trade --- Prices --- E-books --- Food prices. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Trade: Other --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Commodity Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation persistence --- Exchange rates --- Commodity price shocks --- China, People's Republic of
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This paper estimates the effect of copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. We find that a price decline is likely to have a durable (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth: while the impact is the strongest in the first 3 years after the shock, the transition towards the new lower steady-state GDP level generally takes 5–10 years. From a production function perspective, the GDP growth slowdown is mainly driven by lower capital accumulation.
Investments: Commodities --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Economywide Country Studies: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Commodity Markets --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Investment & securities --- Metal prices --- Commodity prices --- Commodities --- Commodity price shocks --- Prices --- Metals --- Commercial products --- Chile
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In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively-or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.
Financial risk --- Risk assessment --- Operational risk --- Mathematical models --- economics, economy, microeconomics, macroeconomics, money, wealth, power, free markets, capitalism, finance, federal reserve bank, banking systems, economic research, technology, society, sociology, politics, political science, financial crisis, regulatory reforms, systemic risk, social welfare perspective, system-wide persepective, quantitative measures, shocks, liquidity, assessment, mathematical models, innovation, hedge funds, cash flow constraints.
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There has been an increase in food price instability in recent years, with varied consequences for farmers, market participants, and consumers. Before policy makers can design schemes to reduce food price uncertainty or ameliorate its effects, they must first understand the factors that have contributed to recent price instability. Does it arise primarily from technological or weather-related supply shocks, or from changes in demand like those induced by the growing use of biofuel? Does financial speculation affect food price volatility? The researchers who contributed to The Economics of Food Price Volatility address these and other questions. They examine the forces driving both recent and historical patterns in food price volatility, as well as the effects of various public policies in affecting this volatility. The chapters include studies of the links between food and energy markets, the impact of biofuel policy on the level and variability of food prices, and the effects of weather-related disruptions in supply. The findings shed light on the way price volatility affects the welfare of farmers, traders, and consumers.
Agriculture --- Food prices --- Economic aspects --- food price, groceries, instability, inflation, poverty, income, wealth gap, economics, public policy, farming, agriculture, consumers, market forces, production, waste, biofuel, supply shocks, demand, financial speculation, history, energy, weather, global warming, drought, nonfiction, technology, corn, harvest, commodity, environmentalism, rational storage, bubbles, domestic stabilization, insulation, protection, scarcity, hunger, social sciences.
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Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Business & Economics --- Industries --- Petroleum products --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Storage. --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Refining --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- Storage --- E-books --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Investment & securities --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Supply shocks --- Commodities --- Economic theory --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Supply and demand --- United States
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This paper assesses the role of international commodity prices, cyclical fluctuations, and convergence in driving inflation in 18 European emerging economies. Country specific VARs and panel estimates indicate that international commodity price shocks have a significant impact on domestic inflation, but the inflation response is asymmetric for positive and negative shocks. Cyclical fluctuations explain a relative small share of inflation variability, and the inflation response is asymmetric during upturns and downturns. Price convergence is estimated to add nearly 3 percentage points to headline inflation, for the average country whose price level is about 50 percent relative to the EU-15 average.
Inflation (Finance) -- Europe. --- Inflation (Finance). --- Primary commodities -- Prices -- Europe. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Primary commodities --- Inflation (Finance) --- Prices --- Basic commodities --- Commodities, Basic --- Commodities, Primary --- Primary products --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Commercial products --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Commodity Markets --- Food prices --- Commodity price shocks --- Fuel prices --- Oil prices --- Ukraine
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Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia’s geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would push up underlying inflation by 1 percentage point. So, while inflation will remain volatile due to agricultural shocks, there is space for macroeconomic stabilization policy to help reduce inflation volatility.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Funding --- Funds --- Economics --- Currency question --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Food prices --- Consumer price indexes --- Supply shocks --- Price controls --- Economic theory --- Price indexes --- Supply and demand --- Government policy --- Mongolia
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This paper presents a model for Inflation Targeting under imperfect policy credibility. It modifies the conventional model in three ways: an endogenous policy credibility process, by which monetary policy can gain or lose credibility over time; non-linearities in the inflation equation and in the credibility generating process; and an explicit loss function. The model highlights problems associated with the practice of setting a series of rigid near-term inflation targets. Also, unfavorable supply shocks pose a difficult problem: an appropriate response involves an interest rate increase, some loss of output, and a period of increased inflation. A delayed response can result in a prolonged period of stagflation.
Inflation (Finance) --- Fiscal policy. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Government policy --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economic Theory --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Inflation targeting --- Output gap --- Supply shocks --- Disinflation --- Monetary policy --- Production --- Economic theory --- Supply and demand --- United States
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