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This paper proposes a general framework for monitoring macro-critical energy sectors in low-income countries, defined as consisting of the three subsectors of crude oil and natural gas production, refinery, and electricity production. It aims to derive consistent information on physical and financial flows in the sector, including on interlinkages between the subsectors. It then applies this framework to Côte d'Ivoire. While being an important source of growth, the Ivoirien energy sector is found to have important shortcomings, in particular as regards transparency, efficiency and contribution to fiscal revenue. Among the key problems are partially intransparent production sharing arrangements for hydrocarbon production, price distortions for natural gas, administered prices for refined petroleum products, underfunding and lack of investment in the electricity sector, and inefficient government subsidies in the latter two subsectors.

Petroleum --- Natural gas --- Electric utilities --- Econometric models. --- Electric companies --- Electric light and power industry --- Electric power industry --- Gas, Natural --- Sour gas --- Coal-oil --- Crude oil --- Oil --- Electric industries --- Energy industries --- Public utilities --- Gases, Asphyxiating and poisonous --- Hydrocarbons --- Caustobioliths --- Mineral oils --- Investments: Energy --- Industries: Energy --- Energy: General --- Electric Utilities --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Electricity --- Natural gas sector --- Energy sector --- Oil production --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Gas industry --- Côte d'Ivoire

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We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.

Macroeconomics. --- Economics --- Russia --- Saudi Arabia --- Great Britain --- Economic conditions. --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Labor Economics: General --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Labor --- Oil --- Consumption --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Commodities --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Labor economics --- Petroleum industry and trade

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We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008–2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted by the model, and for countries whose governments’ finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a country’s oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable.

Petroleum --- Petroleum products --- Petroleum reserves --- Oil reserves --- Oil supply --- Petroleum supply --- Reserves of petroleum --- Oil fields --- Mazut --- Hydraulic fluids --- Coal-oil --- Crude oil --- Oil --- Caustobioliths --- Mineral oils --- Prospecting --- Economic aspects. --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Reserves --- Refining --- Prospecting&delete& --- Economic aspects --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Optimization Techniques --- Programming Models --- Dynamic Analysis --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Oil production --- Asset prices --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Commodities --- Production --- Taxes --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States

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This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.

Economic development -- United States. --- Fiscal policy -- United States. --- Gas industry -- United States. --- Petroleum industry and trade -- United States. --- Mechanical Engineering --- Engineering & Applied Sciences --- Metallurgy & Mineralogy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Energy --- Investments: Energy --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Energy: General --- Energy industries & utilities --- International economics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Energy pricing --- Energy prices --- Foreign assets --- Natural gas sector --- Current account --- External position --- Economic sectors --- Balance of payments --- Oil --- Commodities --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments, Foreign --- Gas industry --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States

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This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Long-Term Program Engagement for Armenia. The quality of program implementation was uneven at the early stages of IMF engagement, but it has improved in recent years. Implementation of some key structural reforms suffered delays, reflecting in part capacity constraints and at times insufficient ownership. Collaboration between the IMF and the World Bank has been good. The Bank has played a valuable role in facilitating the streamlining of conditionality under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility arrangement.

Armenia (Republic) -- Economic conditions -- 1991-. --- Armenia (Republic) -- Economic policy -- 1991-. --- Economic assistance -- Armenia (Republic). --- Foreign exchange rates -- Government policy -- Armenia (Republic). --- International Monetary Fund -- Armenia (Republic). --- World Bank -- Armenia (Republic). --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Foreign exchange rates --- Economic assistance --- Government policy --- International Monetary Fund --- World Bank --- Armenia (Republic) --- Economic policy --- Economic conditions --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Világbank --- Banque internationale pour la reconstruction et le développement --- Mezhdunarodnyĭ bank dli︠a︡ rekonstrukt︠s︡ii i razvitii︠a︡ --- MBRR --- Sekai Ginkō --- Kokusai Fukkō Kaihatsu Ginkō --- Kukche Puhŭng Kaebal Ŭnhaeng --- Segye Ŭnhaeng --- IBRD --- Welt Bank --- Weltbank --- Banque mondiale --- Internationale Bank für Wiederaufbau und Entwicklung --- Banco Internacional de Reconstrucción y Fomento --- Banco Mundial --- B.I.R.D. --- BIRD --- Banca Internațională pentru Reconstrucție și Dezvoltare --- Mirovoĭ Bank --- Svitovyĭ Bank --- Svitovyĭ bank rekonstrukt︠s︡iï i rozvytku --- Verdensbanken --- Międzynarodowy Bank Rozwoju i Odbudowy --- Bank al-Dawlī lil-Inshāʼ wa-al-Taʻmīr --- Bank al-Dawlī --- Världsbanken --- Banca ricostruzione e sviluppo --- Banca di ricostruzione e sviluppo --- BIRF --- I.B.R.D. --- B.I.R.F. --- Shih chieh yin hang --- Shi jie yin hang --- International Bank for Reconstruction and Development --- World Bank Group. World Bank --- Thanākhān Lōk --- Bank Światowy --- Viśva Baiṅka --- Lōka Băṅkuva --- Ngân hàng Thế giới --- Vsemirnyĭ Bank --- Bank Dunia --- Msopʻlio Bankis --- Banca Mondială --- BM --- Prapañca Byāṅku --- Banca mondiale --- Banca internazionale per la ricostruzione e lo sviluppo --- Dhanāgār Bibhab Lok --- البنك الدولي --- بنك الدولي --- 世界銀行 --- 世界银行 --- 国際復興開発銀行 --- Dėlkhiĭn Bank --- Дэлхийн Банк --- Hamashkharhayin Banki --- Svetska Banka --- Wereldbank --- Internationale bank voor herstel en ontwikkeling --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Public Finance --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Banking --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Energy sector --- Commercial banks --- Tax administration core functions --- Structural reforms --- Economic sectors --- Revenue administration --- Financial institutions --- Macrostructural analysis --- Banks and banking --- Energy industries --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue --- Armenia, Republic of