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Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Business & Economics --- Industries --- Petroleum products --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Storage. --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Refining --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- Storage --- E-books --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- General Aggregative Models: Keynes --- Keynesian --- Post-Keynesian --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Investment & securities --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Supply shocks --- Commodities --- Economic theory --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Supply and demand --- United States
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This paper proposes a general framework for monitoring macro-critical energy sectors in low-income countries, defined as consisting of the three subsectors of crude oil and natural gas production, refinery, and electricity production. It aims to derive consistent information on physical and financial flows in the sector, including on interlinkages between the subsectors. It then applies this framework to Côte d'Ivoire. While being an important source of growth, the Ivoirien energy sector is found to have important shortcomings, in particular as regards transparency, efficiency and contribution to fiscal revenue. Among the key problems are partially intransparent production sharing arrangements for hydrocarbon production, price distortions for natural gas, administered prices for refined petroleum products, underfunding and lack of investment in the electricity sector, and inefficient government subsidies in the latter two subsectors.
Petroleum --- Natural gas --- Electric utilities --- Econometric models. --- Electric companies --- Electric light and power industry --- Electric power industry --- Gas, Natural --- Sour gas --- Coal-oil --- Crude oil --- Oil --- Electric industries --- Energy industries --- Public utilities --- Gases, Asphyxiating and poisonous --- Hydrocarbons --- Caustobioliths --- Mineral oils --- Investments: Energy --- Industries: Energy --- Energy: General --- Electric Utilities --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Electricity --- Natural gas sector --- Energy sector --- Oil production --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Gas industry --- Côte d'Ivoire
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The recent boom in unconventional energy production is transforming the energy landscape in North America, with important implications for global energy markets and the broader competitiveness outlook. This book, within a unifying policy perspective, examines the impact the upsurge in energy production has had on the manufacturing sectors of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and of the region as a whole, which produces nearly a quarter of the world’s energy.
Power resources --- Manufacturing industries --- Industries --- Business & Economics --- Manufactures --- Energy --- Energy resources --- Power supply --- Natural resources --- Energy harvesting --- Energy industries --- E-books --- United States --- Investments: Energy --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Energy --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: General --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Natural gas sector --- Manufacturing --- Energy sector --- Energy prices --- Oil --- Economic sectors --- Commodities --- Gas industry --- Petroleum industry and trade
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We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
Macroeconomics. --- Economics --- Russia --- Saudi Arabia --- Great Britain --- Economic conditions. --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Fiscal Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Labor Economics: General --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Labour --- income economics --- Investment & securities --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Labor --- Oil --- Consumption --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Commodities --- Taxes --- National accounts --- Labor economics --- Petroleum industry and trade
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The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
Petroleum industry and trade. --- Petroleum products --- Petroleum --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Energy industries --- Oil industries --- Prices. --- Prices --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: Energy --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Trade: General --- Investment & securities --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- International economics --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Supply shocks --- Oil production --- Export diversification --- Commodities --- Economic theory --- Production --- International trade --- Supply and demand --- Exports --- United States
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We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008–2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted by the model, and for countries whose governments’ finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a country’s oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable.
Petroleum --- Petroleum products --- Petroleum reserves --- Oil reserves --- Oil supply --- Petroleum supply --- Reserves of petroleum --- Oil fields --- Mazut --- Hydraulic fluids --- Coal-oil --- Crude oil --- Oil --- Caustobioliths --- Mineral oils --- Prospecting --- Economic aspects. --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Reserves --- Refining --- Prospecting&delete& --- Economic aspects --- Prices&delete& --- Econometric models --- E-books --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Optimization Techniques --- Programming Models --- Dynamic Analysis --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Business Taxes and Subsidies --- Investment & securities --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Oil prices --- Oil production --- Asset prices --- Oil, gas and mining taxes --- Commodities --- Production --- Taxes --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States
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This paper discusses Ukraine’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring. The Ukrainian economy has been in recession since mid-2012, and the outlook remains challenging. In January–September 2013, GDP contracted by 1¼ percent year-over-year, reflecting lower demand for Ukrainian exports and falling investments. Consumer prices stayed flat, held down by decreasing food prices and tight monetary policy. The fiscal stance loosened in 2012–2013, contributing to the buildup of vulnerabilities. Ukraine remains current on all its payments to the IMF, and the authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to repay all outstanding IMF credit.
Competition --- Competition (Economics) --- Competitiveness (Economics) --- Economic competition --- Commerce --- Conglomerate corporations --- Covenants not to compete --- Industrial concentration --- Monopolies --- Open price system --- Supply and demand --- Trusts, Industrial --- Economic aspects --- Ukraine --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- E-books --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics --- Exports and Imports --- Industries: Financial Services --- Industries: Energy --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Finance --- Government debt management --- Exchange rates --- Public debt --- External debt --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Energy sector --- Economic sectors --- Banks and banking --- Debts, Public --- Monetary policy --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, External --- Energy industries
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This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.
Economic development -- United States. --- Fiscal policy -- United States. --- Gas industry -- United States. --- Petroleum industry and trade -- United States. --- Mechanical Engineering --- Engineering & Applied Sciences --- Metallurgy & Mineralogy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Energy --- Investments: Energy --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Energy: General --- Energy industries & utilities --- International economics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Energy pricing --- Energy prices --- Foreign assets --- Natural gas sector --- Current account --- External position --- Economic sectors --- Balance of payments --- Oil --- Commodities --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments, Foreign --- Gas industry --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States
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Quasi-fiscal deficits of public utility companies are common in all member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). They constitute a significant impediment to efficient resource allocation and endanger macroeconomic stability. This paper presents a simple framework for measuring and monitoring such deficits and highlights their macroeconomic relevance. It reviews the progress under IMF conditionality aimed at correcting these imbalances during 1993-2003. The paper suggests that the extensive conditionality under the IMF-supported programs has yielded only limited progress in reducing the energy sector's financial imbalances. In conclusion, different policy options are discussed in light of the lessons learned.
Deficit financing -- Former Soviet republics. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Government business enterprises -- Former Soviet republics. --- Municipal services -- Former Soviet republics. --- Public utilities -- Former Soviet republics. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Municipal services --- Government business enterprises --- Public utilities --- Deficit financing --- Compensatory spending --- Deficit spending --- Financing, Deficit --- Municipal utilities --- Public-service corporations (Public utilities) --- Utilities, Public --- Utility companies --- Nationalized companies --- Parastatals --- Public enterprises --- State-owned enterprises --- Municipal services within corporate limits --- Public services --- Budget deficits --- Debts, Public --- Finance, Public --- Full employment policies --- Municipal franchises --- Business enterprises --- Municipal government --- Banks and Banking --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels --- Fiscal Policy --- Socialist Systems and Transitional Economies: Planning, Coordination, and Reform --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Electric Utilities --- Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions --- Privatization --- Contracting Out --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public finance & taxation --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Banking --- International economics --- Tariffs --- Energy sector --- Electricity --- Taxes --- Economic sectors --- Commodities --- External debt --- Tariff --- Energy industries --- Electric utilities --- Banks and banking --- Debts, External --- Kyrgyz Republic
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This paper presents an Ex Post Assessment of Long-Term Program Engagement for Armenia. The quality of program implementation was uneven at the early stages of IMF engagement, but it has improved in recent years. Implementation of some key structural reforms suffered delays, reflecting in part capacity constraints and at times insufficient ownership. Collaboration between the IMF and the World Bank has been good. The Bank has played a valuable role in facilitating the streamlining of conditionality under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility arrangement.
Armenia (Republic) -- Economic conditions -- 1991-. --- Armenia (Republic) -- Economic policy -- 1991-. --- Economic assistance -- Armenia (Republic). --- Foreign exchange rates -- Government policy -- Armenia (Republic). --- International Monetary Fund -- Armenia (Republic). --- World Bank -- Armenia (Republic). --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Foreign exchange rates --- Economic assistance --- Government policy --- International Monetary Fund --- World Bank --- Armenia (Republic) --- Economic policy --- Economic conditions --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Világbank --- Banque internationale pour la reconstruction et le développement --- Mezhdunarodnyĭ bank dli︠a︡ rekonstrukt︠s︡ii i razvitii︠a︡ --- MBRR --- Sekai Ginkō --- Kokusai Fukkō Kaihatsu Ginkō --- Kukche Puhŭng Kaebal Ŭnhaeng --- Segye Ŭnhaeng --- IBRD --- Welt Bank --- Weltbank --- Banque mondiale --- Internationale Bank für Wiederaufbau und Entwicklung --- Banco Internacional de Reconstrucción y Fomento --- Banco Mundial --- B.I.R.D. --- BIRD --- Banca Internațională pentru Reconstrucție și Dezvoltare --- Mirovoĭ Bank --- Svitovyĭ Bank --- Svitovyĭ bank rekonstrukt︠s︡iï i rozvytku --- Verdensbanken --- Międzynarodowy Bank Rozwoju i Odbudowy --- Bank al-Dawlī lil-Inshāʼ wa-al-Taʻmīr --- Bank al-Dawlī --- Världsbanken --- Banca ricostruzione e sviluppo --- Banca di ricostruzione e sviluppo --- BIRF --- I.B.R.D. --- B.I.R.F. --- Shih chieh yin hang --- Shi jie yin hang --- International Bank for Reconstruction and Development --- World Bank Group. World Bank --- Thanākhān Lōk --- Bank Światowy --- Viśva Baiṅka --- Lōka Băṅkuva --- Ngân hàng Thế giới --- Vsemirnyĭ Bank --- Bank Dunia --- Msopʻlio Bankis --- Banca Mondială --- BM --- Prapañca Byāṅku --- Banca mondiale --- Banca internazionale per la ricostruzione e lo sviluppo --- Dhanāgār Bibhab Lok --- البنك الدولي --- بنك الدولي --- 世界銀行 --- 世界银行 --- 国際復興開発銀行 --- Dėlkhiĭn Bank --- Дэлхийн Банк --- Hamashkharhayin Banki --- Svetska Banka --- Wereldbank --- Internationale bank voor herstel en ontwikkeling --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Industries: Energy --- Public Finance --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Banking --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public finance & taxation --- Energy sector --- Commercial banks --- Tax administration core functions --- Structural reforms --- Economic sectors --- Revenue administration --- Financial institutions --- Macrostructural analysis --- Banks and banking --- Energy industries --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue --- Armenia, Republic of
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