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We investigate the impact of remittances on public debt sustainability and detail how the traditional debt-to-GDP ratio can be modified to create a more accurate representation of debt sustainability for a country that receives significant remittance inflows. The main result is that inclusion of remittances into the traditional debt sustainability analysis alters the amount of fiscal adjustment required to place debt on a sustainable path. While preliminary, these results are indicative of how a one-size-fits-all stability analysis may be inappropriate when evaluating the stance of fiscal policy for countries with different balance of payments characteristics.
Debts, Public -- Econometric models. --- Emigrant remittances -- Econometric models. --- Fiscal policy. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Debts, Public. --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Government policy --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Remittances --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Debt sustainability --- Fiscal consolidation --- Real interest rates --- International finance --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Fiscal policy --- Interest rates --- Lebanon
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This paper uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the influence of countercyclical remittances on the conduct of fiscal and monetary policy and trace their effects on real and nominal variables in a business cycle setting. We show that remittances raise disposable income and consumption, and insure against income shocks, thereby raising household welfare. However, remittances increase the correlation between labor and output, thereby producing a more volatile business cycle and increasing output and labor market risk. Optimal monetary policy in the presence of remittances deviates from the Friedman rule, highlighting the need for independent government policy instruments.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Emigrant remittances -- Econometric models. --- Fiscal policy -- Econometric models. --- Monetary policy -- Econometric models. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Immigration & Emigration --- Emigrant remittances --- Fiscal policy --- Monetary policy --- Econometric models. --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Immigrant remittances --- Remittances, Emigrant --- Government policy --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Foreign exchange --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Remittances --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Welfare & benefit systems --- Labor supply --- Income --- Consumption --- Labor taxes --- Balance of payments --- National accounts --- Taxes --- International finance --- Labor market --- Economics --- Income tax --- United States
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