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This book is a collection of feature articles published in Risks in 2020. They were all written by experts in their respective fields. In these articles, they all develop and present new aspects and insights that can help us to understand and cope with the different and ever-changing aspects of risks. In some of the feature articles the probabilistic risk modeling is the central focus, whereas impact and innovation, in the context of financial economics and actuarial science, is somewhat retained and left for future research. In other articles it is the other way around. Ideas and perceptions in financial markets are the driving force of the research but they do not necessarily rely on innovation in the underlying risk models. Together, they are state-of-the-art, expert-led, up-to-date contributions, demonstrating what Risks is and what Risks has to offer: articles that focus on the central aspects of insurance and financial risk management, that detail progress and paths of further development in understanding and dealing with...risks. Asking the same type of questions (which risk allocation and mitigation should be provided, and why?) creates value from three different perspectives: the normative perspective of market regulator; the existential perspective of the financial institution; the phenomenological perspective of the individual consumer or policy holder.
Medicine --- medical services’ consumption --- lifestyle factors --- insurance plan --- structural equation model --- stock–bond correlation --- VIX --- economic policy uncertainty --- monetary policy uncertainty --- fiscal policy uncertainty --- agricultural commodity futures --- price discovery --- market reflexivity --- Hawkes process --- poisson autoregressive models --- contagion --- predictive monitoring --- information-based asset pricing --- Lévy processes --- gamma processes --- variance gamma processes --- Brownian bridges --- gamma bridges --- nonlinear filtering --- house price prediction --- real estate --- machine learning --- random forest --- Lévy process --- subordination --- option pricing --- risk sensitivity --- stochastic volatility --- Greeks --- time-change --- time series --- volatility --- probability-integral transform --- ARMA model --- copula
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Mathematical finance plays a vital role in many fields within finance and provides the theories and tools that have been widely used in all areas of finance. Knowledge of mathematics, probability, and statistics is essential to develop finance theories and test their validity through the analysis of empirical, real-world data. For example, mathematics, probability, and statistics could help to develop pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.
Coins, banknotes, medals, seals (numismatics) --- cluster analysis --- equity index networks --- machine learning --- copulas --- dependence structures --- quotient of random variables --- density functions --- distribution functions --- multi-factor model --- risk factors --- OLS and ridge regression model --- python --- chi-square test --- quantile --- VaR --- quadrangle --- CVaR --- conditional value-at-risk --- expected shortfall --- ES --- superquantile --- deviation --- risk --- error --- regret --- minimization --- CVaR estimation --- regression --- linear regression --- linear programming --- portfolio safeguard --- PSG --- equity option pricing --- factor models --- stochastic volatility --- jumps --- mathematics --- probability --- statistics --- finance --- applications --- investment home bias (IHB) --- bivariate first-degree stochastic dominance (BFSD) --- keeping up with the Joneses (KUJ) --- correlation loving (CL) --- return spillover --- volatility spillover --- optimal weights --- hedge ratios --- US financial crisis --- Chinese stock market crash --- stock price prediction --- auto-regressive integrated moving average --- artificial neural network --- stochastic process-geometric Brownian motion --- financial models --- firm performance --- causality tests --- leverage --- long-term debt --- capital structure --- shock spillover
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Extremely popular for statistical inference, Bayesian methods are also becoming popular in machine learning and artificial intelligence problems. Bayesian estimators are often implemented by Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm of the Gibbs sampler. These algorithms target the exact posterior distribution. However, many of the modern models in statistics are simply too complex to use such methodologies. In machine learning, the volume of the data used in practice makes Monte Carlo methods too slow to be useful. On the other hand, these applications often do not require an exact knowledge of the posterior. This has motivated the development of a new generation of algorithms that are fast enough to handle huge datasets but that often target an approximation of the posterior. This book gathers 18 research papers written by Approximate Bayesian Inference specialists and provides an overview of the recent advances in these algorithms. This includes optimization-based methods (such as variational approximations) and simulation-based methods (such as ABC or Monte Carlo algorithms). The theoretical aspects of Approximate Bayesian Inference are covered, specifically the PAC–Bayes bounds and regret analysis. Applications for challenging computational problems in astrophysics, finance, medical data analysis, and computer vision area also presented.
Research & information: general --- Mathematics & science --- bifurcation --- dynamical systems --- Edward–Sokal coupling --- mean-field --- Kullback–Leibler divergence --- variational inference --- Bayesian statistics --- machine learning --- variational approximations --- PAC-Bayes --- expectation-propagation --- Markov chain Monte Carlo --- Langevin Monte Carlo --- sequential Monte Carlo --- Laplace approximations --- approximate Bayesian computation --- Gibbs posterior --- MCMC --- stochastic gradients --- neural networks --- Approximate Bayesian Computation --- differential evolution --- Markov kernels --- discrete state space --- ergodicity --- Markov chain --- probably approximately correct --- variational Bayes --- Bayesian inference --- Markov Chain Monte Carlo --- Sequential Monte Carlo --- Riemann Manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo --- integrated nested laplace approximation --- fixed-form variational Bayes --- stochastic volatility --- network modeling --- network variability --- Stiefel manifold --- MCMC-SAEM --- data imputation --- Bethe free energy --- factor graphs --- message passing --- variational free energy --- variational message passing --- approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) --- differential privacy (DP) --- sparse vector technique (SVT) --- Gaussian --- particle flow --- variable flow --- Langevin dynamics --- Hamilton Monte Carlo --- non-reversible dynamics --- control variates --- thinning --- meta-learning --- hyperparameters --- priors --- online learning --- online optimization --- gradient descent --- statistical learning theory --- PAC–Bayes theory --- deep learning --- generalisation bounds --- Bayesian sampling --- Monte Carlo integration --- PAC-Bayes theory --- no free lunch theorems --- sequential learning --- principal curves --- data streams --- regret bounds --- greedy algorithm --- sleeping experts --- entropy --- robustness --- statistical mechanics --- complex systems
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Risk measures play a vital role in many subfields of economics and finance. It has been proposed that risk measures could be analysed in relation to the performance of variables extracted from empirical real-world data. For example, risk measures may help inform effective monetary and fiscal policies and, therefore, the further development of pricing models for financial assets such as equities, bonds, currencies, and derivative securities.
risk assessment --- VIX --- business groups --- SHARE --- asymptotic approximation --- European stock markets --- whole life insurance --- dynamic hedging --- risk-neutral distribution --- cooperative banks --- Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) --- group-affiliated --- early warning system --- factor models --- smoothing process --- GMC --- falsified products --- S&P 500 index options --- credit derivatives --- corporate sustainability --- term life insurance --- risk management --- crude oil --- financial stability --- social efficiency --- dynamic conditional correlation --- emerging market --- out-of-sample forecast --- financial crisis --- binomial tree --- news release --- green energy --- perceived usefulness --- Bayesian approach --- two-level optimization --- probability of default --- bank risk --- SYMBOL --- information asymmetry --- CoVaR --- probabilistic cash flow --- japonica rice production --- bank profitability --- Monte Carlo Simulations --- gain-loss ratio --- coherent risk measures --- Mezzanine Financing --- national health system --- option value --- conscientiousness --- online purchase intention --- Slovak enterprises --- spot and futures prices --- liquidity premium --- institutional voids --- utility --- random forests --- bankruptcy --- optimizing financial model --- sustainable food security system --- dynamic panel --- co-dependence modelling --- financial performance --- time-varying correlations --- Project Financing --- future health risk --- generalized autoregressive score functions --- volatility spillovers --- financial risks --- simulations --- life insurance --- emotion --- finance risk --- markov regime switching --- diversification --- production frontier function --- Granger causality --- health risk --- risks mitigation --- returns and volatility --- sadness --- low-income country --- the sudden stop of capital inflow --- bank failure --- China’s food policy --- objective health status --- IPO underpricing --- polarity --- climate change --- stock return volatility --- sentiment analysis --- empirical process --- full BEKK --- stochastic frontier model --- perceived ease of use --- volatility transmission --- openness to experience --- sustainability --- low carbon targets --- quasi likelihood ratio (QLR) test --- banking regulation --- sustainable development --- specification testing --- fossil fuels --- time-varying copula function --- tree structures --- monthly CPI data --- coal --- cartel --- regular vine copulas --- sustainability of economic recovery --- ANN --- EGARCH-m --- financial security --- leniency program --- financial hazard map --- uncertainty termination --- causal path --- stakeholder theory --- technological progress --- banking --- investment horizon --- regression model --- two-level CES function --- joy --- the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserve --- carbon emissions --- stochastic volatility --- B-splines --- self-perceived health --- sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) --- RV5MIN --- utility maximization --- credit risk --- policy simulation --- socially responsible investment --- portfolio selection --- scientific verification --- European banking system --- risk-free rate --- wild bootstrap --- medication --- investment profitability --- Amihud’s illiquidity ratio --- multivariate regime-switching --- inflation forecast --- risk aversion --- market timing --- need hierarchy theory --- variance --- diagonal BEKK --- conjugate prior --- risk --- moving averages --- financial risk --- risk measures
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