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This book simplifies atmospheric predictions to enable laypeople to make their own derivative forecasts. Scientists and engineers can learn to predict weather-dependent phenomena to assess the risks associated with decisions in the construction and operation phases of water resources planning. This self-educating method simultaneously uses probabilistic meteorology forecasts over different time scales, time periods, spatial domains, probability statements, and meteorology variables. This practical, hands-on guide presents comprehensive and straightforward theory, procedures, and examples for using short-term, seasonal, and interannual forecasts of meteorology probabilities, which are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Environment Canada, and other agencies. The examples use different hydrology models and employ both user-defined and agency-produced meteorology probability forecasts in the United States and Canada. The examples also illustrate El Nino and La Nina conditional probabilities and examples of their derivation, as well as provide sufficient information for the reader's own applications. An extensive appendix describes the acquisition, installation, and use of freely available software to prepare historical files for individualized applications, to input forecast meteorology probabilities of a specific site, to extract reference quantile estimates, to prioritize forecasts, and to solve the resulting set of equations for derivative forecasts.

Hydrological forecasting. --- Probability forecasts (Meteorology)

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Civilization --- Twenty-first century --- History. --- Forecasts.

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Making Sense of the Future integrates the latest thinking in Future Studies with the author's expertise in world history, economics, interdisciplinary studies, knowledge organization, and political activism. The book takes a systems approach that recognizes the complexity of our world. It begins by suggesting a set of goals for human societies and identifying innovative strategies for achieving these goals that could gain broad support. Each chapter begins with a How to section that discusses how we can identify goals, strategies, trends, surprises, or implementation strategies and concludes with an integrative analysis that draws connections across the preceding discussions. Taking a cross-disciplinary approach, Szostak explores key trends and how these interact so that he can develop strategies to guide trends towards desirable futures. He discusses the ways in which we can best prepare for surprises such as epidemics and natural disasters, enabling us to react to them in beneficial ways. Supported by a list of guiding questions and suggestions for class projects, this is an accessible textbook for students of Future Studies and Future Studies courses. The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution- Non Commercial- No Derivatives 4.0 license.

Forecasting. --- Future, The. --- Time --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction

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Quantitative methods (economics) --- Forecasting. --- Forecasting --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction

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In this wide-ranging survey, Peter J. Bowler explores the phenomenon of futurology: predictions about the future development and impact of science and technology on society and culture in the twentieth century. Utilising science fiction, popular science literature and the novels of the literary elite, Bowler highlights contested responses to the potential for revolutionary social change brought about by real and imagined scientific innovations. Charting the effect of social and military developments on attitudes towards innovation in Europe and America, Bowler shows how conflict between the enthusiasm of technocrats and the pessimism of their critics was presented to the public in books, magazines and exhibitions, and on the radio and television. A series of case studies reveals the impact of technologies such as radio, aviation, space exploration and genetics, exploring rivalries between innovators and the often unexpected outcome of their efforts to produce mechanisms and machines that could change the world.

Forecasting. --- Science fiction --- Forecasts --- Futurology --- Prediction --- History and criticism.