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The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but a sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice. There is an increasing need for personalized evidence-based medicine that uses an individualized approach to medical decision-making. In this Big Data era, there is expanded access to large volumes of routinely collected data and an increased number of applications for prediction models, such as targeted early detection of disease and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist that needs to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. Steps include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formatting. The text also addresses common issues that make prediction models suboptimal, such as small sample sizes, exaggerated claims, and poor generalizability. The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. Including many case studies and publicly available R code and data sets, the book is also appropriate as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. While practical in nature, the book also provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. Updates to this new and expanded edition include: • A discussion of Big Data and its implications for the design of prediction models • Machine learning issues • More simulations with missing ‘y’ values • Extended discussion on between-cohort heterogeneity • Description of ShinyApp • Updated LASSO illustration • New case studies .

Medical statistics. --- Medicine --- Evidence-based medicine --- Research --- Statistical methods. --- Statistics. --- Internal medicine. --- Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences. --- Internal Medicine. --- Medicine, Internal --- Statistical analysis --- Statistical data --- Statistical methods --- Statistical science --- Mathematics --- Econometrics --- Statistics . --- Models, Statistical. --- Regression Analysis. --- Analysis, Regression --- Regression Diagnostics --- Statistical Regression --- Analyses, Regression --- Diagnostics, Regression --- Regression Analyses --- Regression, Statistical --- Regressions, Statistical --- Statistical Regressions --- Statistics as Topic --- Model, Statistical --- Models, Binomial --- Models, Polynomial --- Statistical Model --- Probabilistic Models --- Statistical Models --- Two-Parameter Models --- Binomial Model --- Binomial Models --- Model, Binomial --- Model, Polynomial --- Model, Probabilistic --- Model, Two-Parameter --- Models, Probabilistic --- Models, Two-Parameter --- Polynomial Model --- Polynomial Models --- Probabilistic Model --- Two Parameter Models --- Two-Parameter Model --- Health Workforce --- Statistics --- Health --- Health statistics

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Mathematical statistics --- Statistique mathématique --- Statistiek. --- Statistik. --- Zeitschrift. --- Taiwan. --- Statistische Methode. --- Statistische Methodenlehre. --- Theorie. --- Statistics as Topic --- Models, Statistical --- Model, Statistical --- Models, Binomial --- Models, Polynomial --- Statistical Model --- Probabilistic Models --- Statistical Models --- Two-Parameter Models --- Binomial Model --- Binomial Models --- Model, Binomial --- Model, Polynomial --- Model, Probabilistic --- Model, Two-Parameter --- Models, Probabilistic --- Models, Two-Parameter --- Polynomial Model --- Polynomial Models --- Probabilistic Model --- Two Parameter Models --- Two-Parameter Model --- Area Analysis --- Correlation Studies --- Correlation Study --- Correlation of Data --- Data Analysis --- Estimation Technics --- Estimation Techniques --- Indirect Estimation Technics --- Indirect Estimation Techniques --- Multiple Classification Analysis --- Service Statistics --- Statistical Study --- Statistics, Service --- Tables and Charts as Topic --- Analyses, Area --- Analyses, Data --- Analyses, Multiple Classification --- Analysis, Area --- Analysis, Data --- Analysis, Multiple Classification --- Area Analyses --- Classification Analyses, Multiple --- Classification Analysis, Multiple --- Data Analyses --- Data Correlation --- Data Correlations --- Estimation Technic --- Estimation Technic, Indirect --- Estimation Technics, Indirect --- Estimation Technique --- Estimation Technique, Indirect --- Estimation Techniques, Indirect --- Indirect Estimation Technic --- Indirect Estimation Technique --- Multiple Classification Analyses --- Statistical Studies --- Studies, Correlation --- Studies, Statistical --- Study, Correlation --- Study, Statistical --- Technic, Estimation --- Technic, Indirect Estimation --- Technics, Estimation --- Technics, Indirect Estimation --- Technique, Estimation --- Technique, Indirect Estimation --- Techniques, Estimation --- Techniques, Indirect Estimation --- Statistics as Topic. --- Models, Statistical. --- Mathematical statistics. --- Statistik --- Zeitschrift --- Periodikum --- Zeitschriften --- Presse --- Fortlaufendes Sammelwerk --- Mathematische Statistik --- Statistische Mathematik --- Statistische Methode --- Statistisches Verfahren --- Statistiken --- Datensammlung --- Stochastik --- Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung --- Mathematics --- Statistical inference --- Statistics, Mathematical --- Statistics --- Probabilities --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Statistical methods --- Statistique mathématique

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The most difficult part of making decisions in the health care field on all levels (national, regional, institutional, patient) is linked to the very complexity of the system itself, to the intrinsic uncertainty involved and its dynamic nature. This requires not only the ability to analyze and interpret a large amount of information but also arrange it so that it becomes a cognitive base for appropriate decision-making. Moreover, decisions in the health care field are subjected to many challenges and constraints: fast change and uncertain outcomes, aging population, increasing citizen expectations, equity considerations and limited resources. Operations research, statistical and economic-related quantitative methods supply these decisions making tools and methodology. The contributed book presents a collection of applications to concrete situations detailing the problem area, the methodology employed, the implementation and results. Each topic addressed in the book will be structured in such a way that an interdisciplinary and wide audience will be able to use the materials presented. As an example the book chapters will address health policies issues, planning health services, epidemiology and disease modelling, home-care modelling, logistics in health care, capacity planning, quality and appropriateness.

Health services administration. --- Medical care. --- Delivery of health care --- Delivery of medical care --- Health care --- Health care delivery --- Health services --- Healthcare --- Medical and health care industry --- Medical services --- Personal health services --- Public health --- Health administration --- Health care administration --- Health care management --- Health sciences administration --- Health services management --- Medical care --- Health planning --- Public health administration --- Administration --- Management --- Economic policy. --- Medicine. --- Statistics. --- Economic Policy. --- Operations Research, Management Science. --- Medicine/Public Health, general. --- Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences. --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Statistical analysis --- Statistical data --- Statistical methods --- Statistical science --- Mathematics --- Econometrics --- Clinical sciences --- Medical profession --- Human biology --- Life sciences --- Medical sciences --- Pathology --- Physicians --- Health Workforce --- Decision Support Techniques. --- Delivery of Health Care --- Models, Statistical. --- statistics & numerical data. --- Model, Statistical --- Models, Binomial --- Models, Polynomial --- Statistical Model --- Probabilistic Models --- Statistical Models --- Two-Parameter Models --- Binomial Model --- Binomial Models --- Model, Binomial --- Model, Polynomial --- Model, Probabilistic --- Model, Two-Parameter --- Models, Probabilistic --- Models, Two-Parameter --- Polynomial Model --- Polynomial Models --- Probabilistic Model --- Two Parameter Models --- Two-Parameter Model --- Statistics as Topic --- Analysis, Decision --- Decision Aids --- Decision Support Technics --- Decision Analysis --- Decision Modeling --- Models, Decision Support --- Aid, Decision --- Aids, Decision --- Analyses, Decision --- Decision Aid --- Decision Analyses --- Decision Support Model --- Decision Support Models --- Decision Support Technic --- Decision Support Technique --- Model, Decision Support --- Modeling, Decision --- Technic, Decision Support --- Technics, Decision Support --- Technique, Decision Support --- Techniques, Decision Support --- Clinical Decision-Making --- Decision Making --- Decision Making, Organizational --- Operations research. --- Management science. --- Statistics . --- Quantitative business analysis --- Problem solving --- Operations research --- Statistical decision --- Operational analysis --- Operational research --- Industrial engineering --- Management science --- Research --- System theory

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Arguably medicine is either an arts-based science or a science-based art. In medieval times, clinical decisions were based on simple measures, such as the temperature of the body, the rhythm of the pulse, the consistency of the stool and the colour of the urine. Nowadays, thanks partly to modern technology, medical science has improved in many ways, as has healthcare. In particular, approaches which have their origins in Artificial Intelligence and Operational Research have a significant contribution to make in terms of improving not only diagnosis and treatment of patients, but also providing ways of managing patients in a more effective, more efficient, and more patient-friendly manner. This book focuses on the use of such Intelligent Patient Management to the benefit of clinicians, other healthcare and community practitioners and managers, patients and carers.

Medical informatics --- Models, Statistical --- Decision Support Techniques --- Delivery of Health Care --- Congresses --- Artificial Intelligence --- Patient Care Management --- Statistics as Topic --- Computing Methodologies --- Health Care Quality, Access, and Evaluation --- Models, Theoretical --- Investigative Techniques --- Publication Formats --- Medical Informatics Applications --- Publication Characteristics --- Health Services Administration --- Analytical, Diagnostic and Therapeutic Techniques and Equipment --- Medical Informatics --- Information Science --- Epidemiologic Methods --- Health Care --- Health Care Evaluation Mechanisms --- Public Health --- Quality of Health Care --- Environment and Public Health --- Civil Engineering --- Medical & Biomedical Informatics --- Applied Mathematics --- Medicine --- Engineering & Applied Sciences --- Civil & Environmental Engineering --- Health & Biological Sciences --- Quality of Care --- Quality of Healthcare --- Care Qualities --- Care Quality --- Health Care Quality --- Healthcare Quality --- Environment, Preventive Medicine & Public Health --- Environment, Preventive Medicine and Public Health --- Health, Public --- Healthcare Evaluation Mechanisms --- Evaluation Mechanism, Healthcare --- Evaluation Mechanisms, Healthcare --- Healthcare Evaluation Mechanism --- Mechanism, Healthcare Evaluation --- Mechanisms, Healthcare Evaluation --- Community-Based Distribution --- Contraceptive Distribution --- Delivery of Healthcare --- Dental Care Delivery --- Distribution, Non-Clinical --- Distribution, Nonclinical --- Distributional Activities --- Healthcare --- Healthcare Delivery --- Healthcare Systems --- Non-Clinical Distribution --- Nonclinical Distribution --- Delivery of Dental Care --- Health Care Delivery --- Health Care Systems --- Activities, Distributional --- Activity, Distributional --- Care, Health --- Community Based Distribution --- Community-Based Distributions --- Contraceptive Distributions --- Deliveries, Healthcare --- Delivery, Dental Care --- Delivery, Health Care --- Delivery, Healthcare --- Distribution, Community-Based --- Distribution, Contraceptive --- Distribution, Non Clinical --- Distributional Activity --- Distributions, Community-Based --- Distributions, Contraceptive --- Distributions, Non-Clinical --- Distributions, Nonclinical --- Health Care System --- Healthcare Deliveries --- Healthcare System --- Non Clinical Distribution --- Non-Clinical Distributions --- Nonclinical Distributions --- System, Health Care --- System, Healthcare --- Systems, Health Care --- Systems, Healthcare --- Epidemiologic Method --- Epidemiological Methods --- Methods, Epidemiologic --- Epidemiological Method --- Method, Epidemiologic --- Method, Epidemiological --- Methods, Epidemiological --- Epidemiology --- Information Sciences --- Science, Information --- Sciences, Information --- Computer Science, Medical --- Health Information Technology --- Informatics, Clinical --- Informatics, Medical --- Information Science, Medical --- Clinical Informatics --- Medical Computer Science --- Medical Information Science --- Health Information Technologies --- Information Technologies, Health --- Information Technology, Health --- Medical Computer Sciences --- Medical Information Sciences --- Science, Medical Computer --- Technologies, Health Information --- Technology, Health Information --- Administration, Health Services --- Health Services --- Application, Medical Informatics --- Applications, Medical Informatics --- Informatics Applications, Medical --- Informatics Application, Medical --- Medical Informatics Application --- Investigative Technics --- Investigative Technic --- Investigative Technique --- Technic, Investigative --- Technics, Investigative --- Technique, Investigative --- Techniques, Investigative --- Experimental Model --- Experimental Models --- Mathematical Model --- Model, Experimental --- Models (Theoretical) --- Models, Experimental --- Models, Theoretic --- Theoretical Study --- Mathematical Models --- Model (Theoretical) --- Model, Mathematical --- Model, Theoretical --- Models, Mathematical --- Studies, Theoretical --- Study, Theoretical --- Theoretical Model --- Theoretical Models --- Theoretical Studies --- Healthcare Quality, Access, and Evaluation --- High Performance Computing --- Methodologies, Computing --- Computing Methodology --- Computing, High Performance --- Methodology, Computing --- Performance Computing, High --- Area Analysis --- Correlation Studies --- Correlation Study --- Correlation of Data --- Data Analysis --- Estimation Technics --- Estimation Techniques --- Indirect Estimation Technics --- Indirect Estimation Techniques --- Multiple Classification Analysis --- Service Statistics --- Statistical Study --- Statistics, Service --- Tables and Charts as Topic --- Analyses, Area --- Analyses, Data --- Analyses, Multiple Classification --- Analysis, Area --- Analysis, Data --- Analysis, Multiple Classification --- Area Analyses --- Classification Analyses, Multiple --- Classification Analysis, Multiple --- Data Analyses --- Data Correlation --- Data Correlations --- Estimation Technic --- Estimation Technic, Indirect --- Estimation Technics, Indirect --- Estimation Technique --- Estimation Technique, Indirect --- Estimation Techniques, Indirect --- Indirect Estimation Technic --- Indirect Estimation Technique --- Multiple Classification Analyses --- Statistical Studies --- Studies, Correlation --- Studies, Statistical --- Study, Correlation --- Study, Statistical --- Technic, Estimation --- Technic, Indirect Estimation --- Technics, Estimation --- Technics, Indirect Estimation --- Technique, Estimation --- Technique, Indirect Estimation --- Techniques, Estimation --- Techniques, Indirect Estimation --- Care Management, Patient --- Management, Patient Care --- Computational Intelligence --- AI (Artificial Intelligence) --- Computer Reasoning --- Computer Vision Systems --- Knowledge Acquisition (Computer) --- Knowledge Representation (Computer) --- Machine Intelligence --- Acquisition, Knowledge (Computer) --- Computer Vision System --- Intelligence, Artificial --- Intelligence, Computational --- Intelligence, Machine --- Knowledge Representations (Computer) --- Reasoning, Computer --- Representation, Knowledge (Computer) --- System, Computer Vision --- Systems, Computer Vision --- Vision System, Computer --- Vision Systems, Computer --- Analysis, Decision --- Clinical Prediction Rule --- Decision Aids --- Decision Support Technics --- Decision Analysis --- Decision Modeling --- Models, Decision Support --- Aid, Decision --- Aids, Decision --- Analyses, Decision --- Clinical Prediction Rules --- Decision Aid --- Decision Analyses --- Decision Support Model --- Decision Support Models --- Decision Support Technic --- Decision Support Technique --- Model, Decision Support --- Modeling, Decision --- Prediction Rule, Clinical --- Prediction Rules, Clinical --- Rule, Clinical Prediction --- Rules, Clinical Prediction --- Technic, Decision Support --- Technics, Decision Support --- Technique, Decision Support --- Techniques, Decision Support --- Model, Statistical --- Models, Binomial --- Models, Polynomial --- Statistical Model --- Probabilistic Models --- Statistical Models --- Two-Parameter Models --- Binomial Model --- Binomial Models --- Model, Binomial --- Model, Polynomial --- Model, Probabilistic --- Model, Two-Parameter --- Models, Probabilistic --- Models, Two-Parameter --- Polynomial Model --- Polynomial Models --- Probabilistic Model --- Two Parameter Models --- Two-Parameter Model --- methods --- organization & administration --- Engineering. --- Health informatics. --- Artificial intelligence. --- Applied mathematics. --- Engineering mathematics. --- Biomedical engineering. --- Appl.Mathematics/Computational Methods of Engineering. --- Artificial Intelligence (incl. Robotics). --- Health Informatics. --- Biomedical Engineering. --- Clinical engineering --- Medical engineering --- Bioengineering --- Biophysics --- Engineering --- Engineering analysis --- Mathematical analysis --- AI (Artificial intelligence) --- Artificial thinking --- Electronic brains --- Intellectronics --- Intelligent machines --- Machine intelligence --- Thinking, Artificial --- Bionics --- Cognitive science --- Digital computer simulation --- Electronic data processing --- Logic machines --- Machine theory --- Self-organizing systems --- Simulation methods --- Fifth generation computers --- Neural computers --- Clinical informatics --- Health informatics --- Medical information science --- Information science --- Construction --- Industrial arts --- Technology --- Mathematics --- Data processing --- Medical records --- Mathematical and Computational Engineering. --- Artificial Intelligence. --- Biomedical Engineering and Bioengineering. --- Data processing. --- EHR systems --- EHR technology --- EHRs (Electronic health records) --- Electronic health records --- Electronic medical records --- EMR systems --- EMRs (Electronic medical records) --- Information storage and retrieval systems --- Medical care