Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Optimal growth theory studies the problem of efficient resource allocation over time, a fundamental concern of economic research. Since the 1970s, the techniques of nonlinear dynamical systems have become a vital tool in optimal growth theory, illuminating dynamics and demonstrating the possibility of endogenous economic fluctuations. Kazuo Nishimura's seminal contributions on business cycles, chaotic equilibria and indeterminacy have been central to this development, transforming our understanding of economic growth, cycles, and the relationship between them. The subjects of Kazuo's analysis remain of fundamental importance to modern economic theory. This book collects his major contributions in a single volume. Kazuo Nishimura has been recognized for his contributions to economic theory on many occasions, being elected fellow of the Econometric Society and serving as an editor of several major journals. Chapter “Introduction” is available open access under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License via link.springer.com.

Economic development -- Econometric models. --- Economics. --- Economics -- Mathematical models. --- Endogenous growth (Economics). --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- International trade --- Economic development --- Mathematical models. --- Econometric models. --- Growth models (Economics) --- Disequilibrium (Economics) --- Economic equilibrium --- General equilibrium (Economics) --- Partial equilibrium (Economics) --- Economic growth. --- Economic Growth. --- DGE (Economics) --- DSGE (Economics) --- Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (Economics) --- SDGE (Economic theory) --- Economics, Mathematical --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Development economics --- Resource curse

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper explores the impact of high public debt on long-run economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel of advanced and emerging economies over almost four decades, takes into account a broad range of determinants of growth as well as various estimation issues including reverse causality and endogeneity. In addition, threshold effects, nonlinearities, and differences between advanced and emerging market economies are examined. The empirical results suggest an inverse relationship between initial debt and subsequent growth, controlling for other determinants of growth: on average, a 10 percentage point increase in the initial debt-to-GDP ratio is associated with a slowdown in annual real per capita GDP growth of around 0.2 percentage points per year, with the impact being somewhat smaller in advanced economies. There is some evidence of nonlinearity with higher levels of initial debt having a proportionately larger negative effect on subsequent growth. Analysis of the components of growth suggests that the adverse effect largely reflects a slowdown in labor productivity growth mainly due to reduced investment and slower growth of capital stock.

Debts, Public--Econometric models. --- Economic development--Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Estimation --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public debt --- Public expenditure review --- Government debt management --- Total factor productivity --- Estimation techniques --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Industrial productivity --- Econometric models --- United States --- Debts, Public. --- Economic development --- Econometric models.

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv) the macroeconomic adjustment required to ensure internal and external balance. Well-executed high-yielding public investment programs can substantially raise output and consumption and be self-financing in the long run. However, even if the long run looks good, transition problems can be formidable when concessional financing does not cover the full cost of the investment program. Covering the resulting gap with tax increases or spending cuts requires sharp macroeconomic adjustments, crowding out private investment and consumption and delaying the growth benefits of public investment. Covering the gap with domestic borrowing market is not helpful either: higher domestic rates increase the financing challenge and private investment and consumption are still crowded out. Supplementing with external commercial borrowing, on the other hand, can smooth these difficult adjustments, reconciling the scaling up with feasibility constraints on increases in tax rates. But the strategy may be also risky. With poor execution, sluggish fiscal policy reactions, or persistent negative exogenous shocks, this strategy can easily lead to unsustainable public debt dynamics. Front-loaded investment programs and weak structural conditions (such as low returns to public capital and poor execution of investments) make the fiscal adjustment more challenging and the risks greater.

Debts, Public -- Econometric models. --- Economic development -- Econometric models. --- Public investments -- Econometric models. --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Debts, External --- Finance, Public --- Exports and Imports --- Infrastructure --- Fiscal Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Institutions and Growth --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- International economics --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public investment spending --- Public debt --- Debt sustainability --- Expenditure --- National accounts --- External debt --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Public investments --- Debts, Public --- Saving and investment --- Ghana

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper formally identifies an important role of banks: Banks competitively internalize production externalities and facilitate economic growth. I formulate a canonical growth model with externalities as a game among consumers, firms, and banks. Banks compete for deposits to seek monopoly profits, including externalities. Using loan contracts that specify price and quantity, banks control firms' investments. Each bank forms a firm group endogenously and internalizes externalities directly within a firm group and indirectly across firm groups. This unique equilibrium requires a condition that separates competition for sources and uses of funds. I present a realistic institution that satisfies this condition.

Banks and banking -- Econometric models. --- Economic development -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economic development --- Banks and banking --- Econometric models. --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Noncooperative Games --- Exchange and Production Economies --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Loans --- Interbank markets --- Deposit rates --- Bank deposits --- Financial markets --- Financial services --- Competition --- International finance --- Interest rates --- United States

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This paper attempts to identify robust patterns of cross-country growth behavior in the world as a whole and Africa. It employs a novel methodology that incorporates a dynamic panel estimator, and Bayesian Model Averaging to explicitly account for model uncertainty. The findings indicate that: (i) in addition to initial conditions, various economic factors such as higher investment, lower inflation, lower government consumption, better fiscal stance, improved political environment, exogenous terms-of-trade shocks, and fixed geographical factors are robustly correlated with growth; (ii) what is good for growth around the world is, in principle, also good for growth in Africa; and (iii) political and institutional variables are particularly important in explaining African growth.

Africa -- Economic conditions -- Econometric models. --- Africa -- Economic policy -- Econometric models. --- Economic development -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Labor Economics: General --- International economics --- Population & migration geography --- Labour --- income economics --- Income --- Government consumption --- Debt service --- Population growth --- Labor --- National accounts --- External debt --- Population and demographics --- Consumption --- Economics --- Population --- Labor economics --- India --- Economic development --- Econometric models. --- Africa --- Economic conditions --- Economic policy --- Income economics