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This paper analyzes results of a survey on debt management strategies conducted by the Banking and Debt Management Department of the World Bank. The analysis focuses on (1) whether a public debt management strategy exists in a given country, (2) whether it is made public, and (3) in which form it is imparted. The paper analyzes the distribution of the latter characteristics over different regions, income groups, and levels of indebtedness using graphical analysis. Using regression analysis, it investigates the extent to which basic economic factors can explain the characteristics of public debt management strategies across countries.
Debt Management Department --- Debt Management Strategies --- Debt management strategy --- Debt managers --- Debt Markets --- Debt obligations --- Debt portfolio --- Debt servicing --- Economic Theory and Research --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Government debt --- International Economics & Trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Public Debt --- Public Debt Management --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Strategic Debt Management
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Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We find that the current degree of inflation persistence in Turkey is lower than in Brazil and Uruguay prior to their successful stabilization programs. More significantly, expectations of future inflation are more important than past inflation in shaping the inflation process, providing little evidence of "backward-looking" behavior. Using survey data, we find that inflation expectations, in turn, depend largely on the evolution of fiscal variables.
Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- Inflation persistence --- Disinflation --- Government debt management --- Fiscal stance --- Prices --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Turkey
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This paper examines some recent techniques designed to draw inferences about the credibility of changes in macroeconomic policy regimes. An alternative two-step approach, based on the decomposition between permanent and transitory components of a "credibility variable" is proposed. The methodology is then used to test for the existence of a credibility effect in the Cruzado stabilization plan implemented in Brazil in 1986.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Price controls --- Exchange rates --- Government debt management --- Prices --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Government policy --- Debts, Public --- Argentina
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Analyses of debt relief that focus on the behavior of debtors and existing creditors understate the incentives for collective action by creditors. It is well known that debt relief could benefit existing creditors by providing incentives for domestic investment by residents of debtor countries. It is argued here that relief could also make available additional profit opportunities to international investors. Under these circumstances, arrangements that would allow international investors to capture economic profits would make a leveraged buy-out of existing creditors, followed by relief, a profitable strategy for any investor or group of investors that could act collectively.
Consumption --- Debt Management --- Debt relief --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Economics --- Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Sovereign Debt --- Wealth
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Sustainable public debt has gained renewed attention as countries implement fiscal consolidation measures in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Sound public debt policies and debt management practices require robust legal underpinnings. Complex legal issues however arise in the design of the legal framework, and tradeoffs are required in many instances. This paper analyzes key features of modern public debt management legal frameworks, drawing from examples in advanced, emerging, and frontier markets. It aims to provide guidance for countries that seek to review and strengthen their public debt management legal frameworks.
Business. --- Debt management. --- Debts, Public. --- Public Finance --- Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Financial Risk Management --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Governmental Loans, Loan Guarantees, Credits, and Grants --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Legal support in revenue administration --- Government debt management --- Public debt --- Debt management --- Debt limits --- Revenue administration --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Asset and liability management --- Debts, Public --- Revenue --- Moldova, Republic of
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This paper explores the relationship between the level and management of public debt and financial stability, and explains the channels through which the two are interlinked. It suggests that the broader implications of a debt management strategy and its implementation should be carefully analyzed by debt managers and policy makers in terms of their impact on the government's balance sheet, macroeconomic developments, and the financial system.
Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Crises --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Financial sector stability --- Government debt management --- Public debt --- Debt management --- Financial crises --- Debts, Public --- Financial services industry --- Brazil --- Debts, Public. --- Finance.
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We examine how the composition of public debt, broken down by currency, maturity, holder profile and marketability, has responded to major debt accumulation and consolidation episodes during 1900-2011. Covering thirteen advanced economies, we focus on debt structure shifts that occurred around the two World Wars and global economic downturns, and the subsequent debt consolidations. Notwithstanding data gaps, we are able to recover some broad common patterns. Episodes of large debt accumulation—essentially, large increases in debt supply— were typically absorbed by increases in short-term, foreign currency-denominated, and banking-system-held debt. However, this pattern did not hold during the debt build-ups starting in the 1980s and 1990s, which were compositionally skewed toward long-term local-currency debt. We attribute this change to higher structural demand for sovereign paper, linked to capital account liberalization in advanced economies, the emergence of a large contractual saving sector, and innovative sovereign debt products. With regard to debt consolidations, we find support for the financial repression-cum-inflation channel for post World War II debt reductions. However, the scope for a repeat of this strategy appears limited unless financial liberalization and globalization were materially rolled back or the current globally agreed monetary policy regime built around price stability abandoned. Neither are significant favorable structural demand shifts, as witnessed in the 1980s and 1990s, likely.
Debts, Public --- Developing countries --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Public Finance --- Inflation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Public debt --- Domestic debt --- Government debt management --- Debt management --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Asset and liability management --- Prices --- Banks and banking --- United States
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This paper sets forth some basic principles that could help debt managers in emerging market and other countries to plan and implement sovereign debt buyback and swap operations. It discusses the macroeconomic context in which buybacks and swaps are undertaken, the objectives of buybacks and swaps, the analytical framework for deciding whether to undertake a particular buyback or swap operation and for selecting among alternative operations, and some key issues in the determination of the strategy for executing buybacks and swaps. The focus is on developing the analytical framework for evaluating sovereign debt buyback and swap operations, since very little work has been done in this area. In this regard, the paper presents a step-wise decision-making procedure, in which discounted cash flow analysis and the use of strategic benchmarks for the debt play central roles.
Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Bonds --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Bonds --- Capital markets --- Currencies --- Government debt management --- Debt management --- Capital market --- Money --- Debts, Public --- Brazil --- Swaps (Finance) --- Debt equity conversion
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This paper develops a simple model of foreign debt portfolio management. The model suggests that, under mild conditions, the currency composition of a country's foreign debt portfolio is responsive to exchange rate movements. Empirical evidence is provided for a panel of 14 emerging economies in the period 1970-98. Attention is focused on the stocks of foreign liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars, deutsche marks (DM), Japanese yen, and Swiss francs. The results of the empirical analysis show that foreign debt portfolio management has been sub-optimal in the countries under examination. In these countries, the currency composition of foreign debt has not reflected a substitution effect away from the currencies that have appreciated over time vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Finance --- External debt --- Exchange rates --- Government debt management --- Currencies --- Debt management --- Money --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Asset and liability management --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- United States
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The Revised Guidelines for Public Debt Management have been developed as part of a broader work program undertaken by the IMF and the World Bank to strengthen the international financial architecture, promote policies and practices that contribute to financial stability and transparency, and reduce countries external vulnerabilities.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: General --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Public finance & taxation --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Government debt management --- Debt management --- Public debt --- Government securities --- Debt service --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Asset and liability management --- Financial institutions --- External debt --- Debts, Public --- Fiscal policy --- South Africa
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