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The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.
Business & Economics --- Real Estate, Housing & Land Use --- Housing --- Evangelicalism. --- Economics --- Prices --- Religious aspects --- Christianity. --- Christianity and economics --- Evangelical religion --- Protestantism, Evangelical --- Evangelical Revival --- Fundamentalism --- Pietism --- Protestantism --- Financial Risk Management --- Infrastructure --- Insurance --- Real Estate --- Demography --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand --- Cultural Economics: Religion --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Financial Crises --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Property & real estate --- Population & demography --- Macroeconomics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Housing prices --- Population and demographics --- Asset bubbles --- National accounts --- Financial crises --- Financial institutions --- Population --- Saving and investment --- United States
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This paper describes how behavioral elements are relevant to financial supervision, regulation, and central banking. It focuses on (1) behavioral effects of norms (social, legal, and market); (2) behavior of others (internalization, identification, and compliance); and (3) psychological biases. It stresses that financial supervisors, regulators, and central banks have not yet realized the full potential that these behavioral elements hold. To do so, they need to devise a behavioral approach that includes aspects relating to individual and group behavior. The paper provides case examples of experiments with such an approach, including behavioral supervision. Finally, it highlights areas for further research.
Financial services industry --- Banks and banking, Central. --- Services, Financial --- Service industries --- Banker's banks --- Banks, Central --- Central banking --- Central banks --- Banks and banking --- State supervision. --- Risk management. --- Banks and Banking --- Public Finance --- Industries: Financial Services --- Business and Financial --- Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles --- Intertemporal Consumer Choice --- Life Cycle Models and Saving --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation --- Law and Economics: General (including Data Sources and Description) --- Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law --- Corporate Culture --- Diversity --- Social Responsibility --- Marketing and Advertising: Government Policy and Regulation --- Personnel Economics: Compensation and Compensation Methods and Their Effects --- Cultural Economics --- Economic Sociology --- Economic Anthropology: General --- Cultural Economics: Religion --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banking --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial services law & regulation --- Legal support in revenue administration --- Financial regulation and supervision --- Financial sector --- Government debt management --- Revenue --- Law and legislation --- Debts, Public --- United States
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