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Relatively little is known about youth unemployment and its lasting consequences in transition economies, despite the difficult labor market adjustment experienced by these countries over the past decade. The authors examine early unemployment spells and their longer-term effects among the youth in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), where the labor market transition is made more difficult by the challenges of a post-conflict environment. They use panel data covering up to 4,800 working-age individuals over the 2001 to 2004 period. There are three main findings from their analysis. First, youth unemployment is high-about twice the national average-consistent with recent findings from the BiH labor market study. Younger workers are more likely to go into inactivity or unemployment and are also less likely to transition out of inactivity, holding other things constant. Second, initial spells of unemployment or joblessness appear to have lasting adverse effects on earnings and employment ("scarring"). But there is no evidence that the youth are at a greater risk of scarring, or suffer disproportionately worse outcomes from initial joblessness, compared with other age groups. Third, higher educational attainment is generally associated with more favorable labor market outcomes. Skilled workers are less likely to be jobless and are less likely to transition from employment into joblessness. But there is evidence that the penalty from jobless spells may also be higher for more educated workers. The authors speculate that this may be due in part to signaling or stigma, consistent with previous findings in the literature.
Age Groups --- Average Unemployment --- Educational Attainment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Survey --- Labor --- Labor Force --- Labor Market --- Labor Market Adjustment --- Labor Market Experiences --- Labor Market Outcomes --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- National Unemployment --- National Unemployment Rate --- Population Policies --- Skilled Workers --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployed --- Unemployment Spells --- Younger Workers --- Youth and Government --- Youth Unemployment --- Youth Unemployment Rate --- Youth Unemployment Rates
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It is routinely assumed that residents of post-socialist countries have a preference for greater income equality, other things being equal, owing to the legacy of socialism. This proposition is examined in the context of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union using data from three waves of the World Values Survey. Contrary to expectations, the authors find little evidence of a 'socialist legacy' en bloc. Considering the former Soviet Union separately from other post-socialist countries, the analysis finds that as a group these countries display significantly lower preference for moving toward greater income equality than both Eastern Europe and other comparator groups (developed and developing countries). These findings hold up even when controlling for the conventional determinants of attitudes such as income level and employment status of the individual respondent, as well as national factors such as per-capita income and its distribution. Moreover, the preference for greater income inequality appears to have persisted at least since the mid-1990s and possibly since the early 1990s (data difficulties preclude a robust examination of this latter question). The results are consistent with the fairly low levels of public spending on redistribution commonly found in the former Soviet Union.
Corporate Law --- Country Strategy and Performance --- Developing countries --- Equal countries --- Gender --- Gender and Law --- Gini coefficient --- Income --- Income inequality --- Income level --- Inequality --- Labor market --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Policy Research --- Poverty Impact Evaluation --- Poverty Reduction --- Public spending
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This paper takes stock of labor market developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the period 2001-2004, using the panel Living Standards Measurement Study/Living in Bosnia and Herzegovina survey. The analysis estimates a multinomial logit model of labor market transitions by state of origin (employment, unemployment, and inactivity) following the specification of widely used models of transition probabilities, and analyzes the impact of standard covariates. The results provide strong evidence that there are indeed significant differences in labor market transitions by gender, age, education, and geographic location. Using the panel structure of the multi-topic survey data, the authors find that these transitions are related to welfare dynamics, with welfare levels evolving differently for various groups depending on their labor market trajectories. The findings show that current labor market trends reflecting women's movement out of labor markets and laid-off male workers accepting informal sector jobs characterized by low productivity will lead to adverse social outcomes. These outcomes could be averted if the planned enterprise reform program creates a more favorable business environment and leads to faster restructuring and growth of firms.
Displaced Workers --- Employment --- Informal Sector --- Jobs --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Local Labor Markets --- Male Workers --- Private Sector --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment
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This paper revisits the early empirical literature on economic growth in transition economies, with particular focus on fiscal policy variables-fiscal balance and the size of government. The baseline model uses a parsimonious specification, drawn from Fischer and Sahay (2000), of economic growth as a function of initial conditions, stabilization, liberalization, and structural reform. The paper expands the data used in previous analyses by up to 10 years and finds unambiguous evidence that fiscal balance matters for growth, while confirming other previous findings on the correlates of economic growth in transition economies. In addition, the paper extends the baseline model and explores potential sources of nonlinearities in the relationship between growth and public finance. A key finding is that determinants of growth may vary in relative importance, depending on the underlying institutional quality. The evidence indicates that there could be higher growth payoffs from macroeconomic stability and public expenditure in countries characterized by relatively better public sector governance as measured by relevant indicators. In addition, the size of government matters for growth in a nonlinear manner: Beyond indicative thresholds of expenditure levels, public spending has a negative impact, while at levels below the threshold, there is no measurable impact on economic growth.
Economic growth --- Fiscal balance --- Fiscal policy --- Governance --- Governance Indicators --- Macroeconomic stability --- National Governance --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Public expenditure --- Public Finance --- Public sector --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management --- Size of government --- Structural reform --- Transition Economies
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Thousands of Moldovans emigrated for work abroad over the last few years following nearly a decade of economic stagnation in their home country. At about 30 percent of the labor force, Moldova's emigrant population is in relative terms among the largest in the world. This study uses a unique household survey to examine the impact of emigration on wages in Moldova. The authors find a positive and significant impact of emigration on wages and the result is robust to the use of alternative samples and specifications. The size of the emigration coefficient varies depending on the sample and model specification, but the baseline result suggests that, on average, a 10 percent increase in the emigration rate is associated with 3.2 percent increase in wages. At the same time, there is evidence of significant differences across economic sectors in the estimated effect of emigration on wages. The authors speculate and provide some evidence that offsetting changes in labor demand, as revealed by information on employment growth by sector, may help explain some of the heterogeneity.
Emigration --- Human Migrations & Resettlements --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Voluntary and Involuntary Resettlement --- Wages
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Public spending has effects which are complex to trace and difficult to quantify. But the composition of public expenditure has become the key instrument by which development agencies seek to promote economic development. In recent years, the development assistance to heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs) has been made conditional on increased expenditure on categories that are thought to be "pro-poor". This paper responds to the growing concern being expressed about the conceptual foundations and the empirical basis for the belief that poverty can be reduced through targeted public spending. While it is widely accepted that growth and redistribution are important sources of reduction in absolute poverty, a review of the literature confirms the lack of an appropriate theoretical framework for assessing the impact of public spending on growth as well as poverty. There is a need to combine principles of both public economics and growth theory to develop appropriate theoretical guidance for public expenditure policy. This paper identifies a number of approaches that are beginning to address this gap. Building on these approaches, it proposes a framework that has its foundation in a broadly articulated development strategy and its economic goals such as growth, equity, and poverty reduction. It recommends the use of public economics principles to clarify the roles of the private and public sectors and to recognize the complementarity of spending, taxation, and regulatory instruments available to affect public policy. With regard to the impact of any given type of public spending, policy recommendations must be tailored to countries and be based on empirical analysis that takes account of the lags and leads in their effects on equity and growth and ultimately on poverty. The paper sketches out such a framework as the first step in what will have to be a longer-term research agenda to provide theoretically and empirically robust and verifiable guidance to public spending policy.
Absolute Poverty --- Agricultural Development --- Debt Markets --- Economic Growth --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Human Development --- Poor --- Poor Countries --- Poverty --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategy --- Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management --- Public Spending --- Rural --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Safety Nets --- Savings --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Social Policies --- Social Spending --- Structural Reforms --- Sustainable Poverty Reduction --- War
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This paper examines the assertion that returns to schooling increase as an economy transitions to a market environment. This claim has been difficult to assess as existing empirical evidence covers only a few countries over short time periods. A number of studies find that returns to education increased from the "pre-transition" period to the "early transition" period. It is not clear what has happened to the skills premium through the late 1990s, or the period thereafter. The authors use data that are comparable across countries and over time to estimate returns to schooling in eight transition economies (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia) from the early transition period up to 2002. In the case of Hungary, they capture the transition process more fully, beginning in the late 1980s. Compared to the existing literature, they implement a more systematic analysis and perform more comprehensive robustness checks on the estimated returns, although at best they offer only an incomplete solution to the problem of endogeneity. The authors find that the evidence of a rising trend in returns to schooling over the transition period is generally weak, except in Hungary and Russia where there have been sustained and substantial increases in returns to schooling. On average, the estimated returns in the sample are comparable to advanced economy averages. There are, however, significant differences in returns across countries and these differentials have remained roughly constant over the past 15 years. They speculate on the likely institutional and structural factors underpinning these results, including incomplete transition and significant heterogeneity and offsetting developments in returns to schooling within countries.
Bank Policy --- Checks --- Debt Markets --- Education --- Education for All --- Education Reform and Management --- Effective Schools and Teachers --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Government expenditures --- Human capital --- Labor market --- Macroeconomic controls --- Market economy --- Market environment --- Primary Education --- Returns --- Transition economies
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This paper looks at how individual preferences for the allocation of government spending change along the life cycle. Using the Life in Transition Survey II for 34 countries in Europe and Central Asia, the study finds that older individuals are less likely to support a rise in government outlays on education and more likely to support increases in spending on pensions. These results are very similar across countries, and they do not change when using alternative model specifications, estimation methods, and data sources. Using repeated cross-sections, the analysis controls for cohort effects and confirms the main results. The findings are consistent with a body of literature arguing that conflict across generations over the allocation of public expenditures may intensify in ageing economies.
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