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Book
Business cycle synchronisation and economic integration : new evidence from the EU
Authors: ---
ISBN: 3790828548 3790828556 3790829382 Year: 2012 Publisher: Heidelberg ; New York : Physica-Verlag,

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Abstract

This book offers the reader a state-of-the-art overview on theory and empirics of business cycle synchronisation, structural reform and economic integration. Focusing on the ongoing integration process in the euro area and the EU, it analyses the economic integration that has taken place since the 1980s and which is marked by the advent of the euro and the substantial enlargement that resulted from the accession of 12 new Member States in Eastern and Southern Europe.


Article
The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2011 Publisher: Paris : OECD Publishing,

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Abstract

In this paper we study the macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. In a sample of 128 countries since 1960, we identify 25 episodes of large nominal and real appreciations shocks and study their macroeconomic effects in a dummy-augmented panel autoregressive model. Our results show that an exchange rate appreciation can have strong effects on current account balances. Within three years after the appreciation event, the current account balance on average deteriorates by three percentage points of GDP. This effect occurs through a reduction of savings without a meaningful reduction in investment. Real export growth slows down substantially, while imports remain by and large unaffected. However, the output costs of appreciation are small and not statistically significant, indicating a shift towards domestic sources of growth. All these effects appear somewhat more pronounced in developing countries.

Keywords

Development

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